My take on the Belmont

[JR]

You\'re nuts. That horse was hounded like reporters on Howard Dean. Since when does Rock Hard Ten press the pace. Ask those who bet him to 7-1 how they feel about Solis\' ride. And then Bailey takes his turn in this version of tag team horse racing. Maybe their strategy was to insure that the best horse didn\'t win thereby rendering it a wide open race. It was bombs away from the beginning for any of them who could keep pace with Smarty for as long as they lasted. Nope. They weren\'t going to give it away even if it meant sacrificing their own animals. Birdstone was the beneficiary of a mugging that took place a half a mile away. You think Birdstone\'s the better horse? Bet the bank on him next time they meet. Please.

[JR]

If you think that was a vintage Jerry Bailey ride you need to watch more races. You won\'t see Bailey ride a fool ride like that in another hundred years. Running up into a sub 1:36 mile pace. That\'s Secretariat time. Do you really think he is that poor a judge of pace? Servis is dead on right. They screwed him and his horse. And he only got beat a length. That\'s why Bobby Frankel said afterwards Birdstone will never beat Smarty again.

[Michael D.]

bailey didn\'t want to win the race, only wanted to screw smarty... AND ... visa paid elliot to throw the race, ON THE SAME THREAD !!!!  ..... wow!

[JR]

Fine then. You tell me what Bailey was doing running Eddington up into a sub 1:36 mile pace in a mile and a half race? What was he going to do next? A sustained sprint for the last half mile? Bailey\'s a better rider than that. Servis said they had a bullseye on their back and Bailey and Solis took dead aim. You\'ll never see Bailey ride a race like that again. Running up into a legitimate pace on the backstretch. Total sacrifice. And if you don\'t believe it just look at the results. Plodders finished 1st and 3rd. Kamikazes 4th, 5th and last.

[alm]

Just before the actual race, in an interview, Elliott said that he didn\'t think that his unfamiliarity with Belmont would make much difference.  After all, he said, he had ridden about sixteen races there.

Sixteen races.  Wow.

When your entire career is spent making moves at the half mile pole on 8 furlong tracks, you can be forgiven, I suppose, for not realizing that the half mile pole at Belmont is not in the same place.

Elliott tried to make a six furlong brush with SJ, which was a quarter mile too long.  Prado revved up around the real half mile pole and just got the job done.

Experience won...inexperience cost SJ the race...the guy who said that Birdstone is unlikely to ever beat SJ again was right...as insurance Servis had better get the horse a jockey for the course...wherever it is.

[JR]

I agree with your assessment of Stu\'s ride. He let it out a notch along the backside and he should have sat chilly for another 1/4 mile. Let those goofs go on. He would have passed them around the turn. He just asked his horse for one too many moves.

What amazes me is that there isn\'t more of an outcry from the Rock Hard Ten contingent. Do they really accept that Birdstone is a better horse than Rock Hard Ten at any distance?

[Furlong]

I don\'t really get all the cynicism in trying to evaluate the race. SJ was running along in about the same position in the Belmont as he did in the Arkansas Derby, The K. Derby and the Preakness. The half times of those races were 46:4,46:3, and 47:1. In Jan. on the inner track, he was in the same position in a 47 flat half. Now he\'s running on a track that\'s at least a second faster than normal and he\'s loping along on a 48:3 half, irregardless of the fact that it\'s a mile and a half race, why doesn\'t anyone believe Elliot when he said the horse was pulling him along? Of course the horse couldn\'t settle. If you want to fault the rider maybe he should have gone a 47:2 half on that track to get the horse to relax. Maybe then he would have won because Birdstone would have been too far back or going to fast to keep up to have the late kick he did.
     In addition, if we say that Bailey is one of the 3 or 4 best riders of all time and a fairly decent judge of pace. What did you expect him to do off a 48:3 half on a track on which a filly broke the 6 1/2 furlong record earlier in the day?  Should he have just waited to outsprint SJ to the wire after what he had seen the last two times he raced against him?  He wasn\'t on a very good horse but the idea that Jerry Bailey would sacrifice his chance to win a million dollar race just to cause another horse to lose is preposterous.  Anyone who seriously thinks that should take up golf and stop playing the horses. Why would he do that?  Do you think MaryLou and Penny did a duet on him?
     As it turned out I thought SJ ran a great race but lost to a very good horse running the best race of his life, a la Monarchos in the derby a couple of years ago.  and that\'s what makes horse racing. I think if Smarty stays sound he will dominate the fall racing.

[Bham41]

Speaking of Sacrifices, didn\'t Smarty Jones sacrifice himself trying to go box to wire at a record setting pace.  Impressive times up to the last 27 seconds.   Found a way to lose - just like me LOL didn\'t bet my 4, 6, 8, 9 superfecta box in one of my earlier emails.

Got 4 straight on my pick 6 seems I faded a bit too wound up not even getting the consolation prize for picking 5 out of 6! $47,000 plus $11,000 only 24 bucks away from my back pocket.  

Welcome to the club SMARTY JONES!!!  Waiting on that chestnut colt and next year.



Post Edited (06-07-04 23:36)

[cozzene]

Nick Zito and Mary Lou Whitney.

A winning combination.

Are you kidding me?

Both of them should be gagged and prohibited from public speaking.

Neither is representative of New York.

To think so is to believe in the idea of the elite.

The spirit of New York; more than any other city in the World; is based on feeedom and opportunity.

Long live Smarty Jones and all who chase their dreams.

Cozzene

[gowand]

Mary Lou is harmless.  As far as Zito is concerned I think overall he is good for racing.  He has a good relationship with the media.  He has a personality without being percieved as \"slick\"(see, baffert and lukas)  I think he he is a guy that you can root for.  Do you think Frankel is more representative of New York? Gimme a break.

[jbelfior]

MO---


Stop watching SOPRANO re-runs.

Ever consider this. Perhaps SJ is not the great horse we wanted him to be. Start going over the list of horses SJ has beat....LION HEART< LIMEHOUSE
SKIP AWAY ran a more demanding race,pace wise, and was barely nipped on the wire. Sonny Hine said nothing afterwards because he was a class act.

Good Luck,
joe B.

[JR]

Since you are posting on this website I am going to assume you are familiar with their product. Of the other great horses you have mentioned, which of them had run anything close to the numbers Smarty Jones has run at this point in their careers?

This site isn\'t about who you beat or even who beats you. It\'s about how fast you run. I can recall a few who have run faster than Smarty but none who have run this fast up to and through the TC series. I will speculate he will ultimately be regarded as the greatest horse not to win the TC since Northern Dancer.



Post Edited (06-08-04 12:37)

[jbelfior]

JR--

The nice thing about this site is that horseplayers are free to speak their opinions on all facets of the game.

I certainly understand what the product is. I also understand that final numbers, regardless of who produces them, are not the end all in thoroughbred handicapping. They are a valuable tool, but only one of many.

There is also a thing called class and it\'s the reason a horse like GYGISTAR can run a negative # in the Grade 3 Westchester Mile and then a plus 2 in the Grade 1 Met Mile when the pace is more demanding.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Just for the record, Gigystar paired his top in the Met, pace and class notwithstanding. The first 6 horses ran negative numbers-- Beyer blew it, presumably because he\'s not on top of what is going on with the changing run-ups, which was very short for that race. I wonder whether Ragozin is on top of this-- in effect, your speed chart becomes variable. Those guys don\'t handle change very well...

[MO]

Joe B,

I don\'t get HBO.

MO