Making a Case For, and Against, Gormley

[Niall]

Speaking of intangibles, have read many of the different opinions and thoughts regarding such on these various threads. I too am looking for clues. So my question is this, as chaos seems to be the order in this years Ky Drby, shouldnt we be taking a more dogmatic stance in using TG figures? I\'m going to and also apply the most critical intangible and that is 2 year old form. This is a tough race and foundation is key.

[FrankD.]

Richie,

I couldn\'t disagree more with your last sentence.

2017 is The Intangible Derby....

The post draw may even create more what if\'s?

T-graph figs normally provide clarity of some degree. Always the bounce is a debate, another forward move in a progression or hitting the wall, some may like a certain pattern more than others.....

This year EVERYONE of the fast horses comes to Louisville with many intangibles.Trust me the search for alternatives isn\'t all that appealing either!

I will put out a proposition bet though:
If Practical Joke draws post 15 or further out? Whatever the T-graph record for ground loss at 2 turns I\'m confident Rosario will shatter it. Over or under 12.5 for the W\'s. I could see a 9W 8W trip.

Frank D.

[johnnym]

How about this prop bet, who crosses the finish line first PJ or Gormley?

[RICH]

strickly speaking on figs, easy answer

[TempletonPeck]

PJ -140

[SoCalMan2]

richiebee Wrote:
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> I like Gormley. I\'ve admitted his T-graph is a bit
> homely. I\'ve got to embrace the
> intangibles.
>
> We are getting close to the post position draw,
> entries being taken for the Derby
> undercard, some long term weather forecasting by
> Frank D and of course the release
> of the seminar; I\'m expecting that attempts at
> humor and discussion of intangibles
> will be significantly reduced.

Been studying Gormley\'s sheet.  If you look at it from the perspective that they got the flash they needed 2yo year to see the horse was something (running a \'4\' routing prior to the Breeders Cup Juvenile is enough to know you have something) and that they do not want to peak too early and have the horse peak in the Derby, then the sheet doesnt look so bad if you focus on pattern.  Other winners who fit that pattern are Sea Hero and maybe Ferdinand.  Trained by Mack Miller and Charlie Whittingham....you could imagine both of those guys not focusing on the preps and keeping the eye on the prize.  Is Shirrefs cut from the same cloth as Miller and Whittingham?

the 1 in the mud with the front and back caulks is a weird figure and I do not know what to make of it.  I am inclined to make it inert to the read.  If you look at the sheet that way, you have a horse that ran a 4 top in his two year old year, and has had two prep races where he basically came back to that top....you could see the progression coming third race (i.e. now).  If you go only off of 2yo numbers, this horse looks strong.....if you were told he was having two preps only and both paired up his 2yo top, you would be looking at the horse to make an explosive forward move.

Realize there is some poetic justice taken in this read, but i find that if you get too pinned into particular figures you can miss the forest through the trees.  Still do not know who i like in this derby....there are a huge number of horses who can run figs that can get them close to the win.....we could see the most exciting final furlong ever.

[trackjohn]

Frank

 12.5 W\'s total for the trip...wow...you KNOW how I hate \'overs\'...but in this case...

John

[Tale Of Ekati]

Does anyone know when Gormley is scheduled to ship?
He\'s still in California.
Also, did Sheriff\'s ship Giacomo this late?
I can\'t recall.

[SoCalMan2]

BitPlayer Wrote:
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> I\'d prefer for this not to become relevant, but I
> think he moves up in the mud.


I would take note of the shoes...he was in front and back mud caulks in the mud that day.  I would need to see the shoes as well as the mud.

[RICH]

and don\'t forget the TG cali numbers are always a point or two slower, that pattern screams forward move

emoji eye wink with tongue sticking out

[TempletonPeck]

Stayin\' alive!

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cassini-survives-closest-ever-encounter-with-saturn-snaps-stunning-images/?WT.mc_id=SA_TW_SPC_NEWS

\"I am delighted to report that Cassini shot through the gap just as we planned and has come out the other side in excellent shape,\"

[TGJB]

Meaning Paco was riding, not Wide Mikey...

[trackjohn]

Or Rosario...

[FrankD.]

JB,

You referred to Paco as a top 5 rider and I whole heartedly agree. We have plunged on him the past couple years at some good prices on Spa week days when he came up with The Shore running weekends only.

Kevin Cox, who I\'m sure you know constantly refers to him as Bobblehead, for all the looking back side to side and under his legs he does when on the engine. Cracks me up. Paco is also a former friend of my favorite Carona Beach House bartender. She liked Bobblehead but had a couple of other words as well.

[ajkreider]

Maybe he\'s not getting good mounts this year, but his win and top 3% are just meh - for a top guy.