Early Stab at Derby M/L, '17

[jimbo66]

I don\'t know what to say Pete.  

You still don\'t know where you are, do you?  Posting nonsense about a 1 figure horse, with a horse shit pattern, trained by a 1-50 Kentucky Derby trainer, and saying it is a no-brainer to bet this horse as one of the top 2 favorites.  Yikes.  

You are allowed your opinion.  I am glad you have it.  But If I want to be an extreme bleeding heart liberal I can be, but I probably don\'t show up at a Trump rally full of the opposite.

silly silly man.  I am guessing exuberance of youth.  I am setting 22.5 as the over/under.....

[FrankD.]

Totally Pletcher Driven on a TG board, a horse that runs a 6.5 pt new top in his last prep.

[Furious Pete]

Trump rally... Yeah that sounds about right!

Well I\'ve followed this board for a while and I\'m pretty sure TGJB won\'t be quite satisfied with that comparison. He\'s no Donald. Maybe you\'re the one that don\'t know where you are, after all.

[jimbo66]

Or it could be that he has one figure that makes him a contender.  And it was earned last time out, and was 9 points higher than each of his previous 2.

Trained by Baffert, he would still be a toss as one of the favorites.

[TGJB]

I think you missed his point-- he could have said a Trump fan at a Clinton rally and it would have been the same analogy.

Sekrah-- yes, on that day he was very good. And...

[jimbo66]

Pete,

I am espousing no political views either way.  

Just saying that u continue to talk big about a horse that is a toss by almost any sheets standard.  And u keep saying it on the board of the best sheet product on the market.

They are silly statements.  

Sure he can win.  Any of them can.  

Good luck,

Jim

[TGJB]

You know Jimbo, that\'s an interesting analogy, not in the specific, but in that what we\'re talking about is an ideological split. You either believe horses bounce, or you don\'t.

Just had a similar conversation this afternoon with Serling, about a different horse in a different race...

[sekrah]

I\'ve thrown out enough Derby winners over the years fretting over a horse coming in with too big of a top.  It\'s not the be-all end-all.  Until one goes backwards, they are very live to keep going forward.

Many have won with 3-4 pt tops. This one\'s Allowance waltz shouldn\'t be judged on face value.  This was a much stronger horse than the figure he ran that day.  I brought this same point up about Arrogate prior to the Travers and that he had a massive move lurking.

I don\'t know if he\'ll end up being my top choice here, but toss him at your own peril.

[FrankD.]

Serling had a great analogy on Byk show today. The conversation started about a string on odds vs value from this board.

\"twitter and boards have become like a drunk at a cocktail party, 3-4 people are having an intelligent debate about a subject and then a loud drunk interrupts with some babble\"

[SoCalMan2]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t know what to say Pete.  
>
> You still don\'t know where you are, do you?
> Posting nonsense about a 1 figure horse, with a
> horse @#$%& pattern, trained by a 1-50 Kentucky
> Derby trainer, and saying it is a no-brainer to
> bet this horse as one of the top 2 favorites.
> Yikes.  
>
> You are allowed your opinion.  I am glad you have
> it.  But If I want to be an extreme bleeding heart
> liberal I can be, but I probably don\'t show up at
> a Trump rally full of the opposite.
>
> silly silly man.  I am guessing exuberance of
> youth.  I am setting 22.5 as the over/under.....

I haven\'t seen Always Dreaming\'s sheet, so i cannot really comment on him.  However, I am curious what the take is on War Emblem?  Here was a horse that had pretty clearly showed a reaction point/established level at 8 and then jumped up to run a 1 and followed it with a pair and a jump forward in the Derby.  Maybe he was a bet against also and the answer is that nothing is black and white 0-100%......However, there does seem to be times where the jump up was really out of context and the horse cannot be expected to duplicate it and there are times where the horse is just a new horse...something clicked or changed.  I have no idea what the story is on Always Dreaming....just the mention of the 7 point jump up made me think of War Emblem.

[FrankD.]

War Emblem went off @ 21/1, there in lies the difference.

I believe it was Julian that coined the phrase \" you don\'t have to like much about a horse at 20/1\".

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

Bounce is an extremely debatable topic, even among people who follow this game closely and have a lot of knowledge.  

There seems to be an awful lot of evidence out there that horses bounce off big efforts.  But of course not always.  Then it becomes a matter of how old is the horse, timing since last race, overall running line, trainer, etc.etc.etc.  

All that said, I am pretty sure that there is already quite a bit of evidence out there regarding horses entering the Derby, trying to run 1 1/4 on dirt for the first time, off a big new top in their last . Stuff I am sure you will cover again this year.  And the numbers aren\'t good.

I think it was 2005, the Giacomo year, where 5 different horses came into the derby off negative numbers.  And I thought, well sheesh, even if 80 percent of them bounce, doesn\'t 1 of them have to win (by running well).

Nope.

Sekrah,

NOt sure what numbers you are looking at.  Don\'t remember a whole bunch of derbies with horses winning off of 4 point tops.

[Furious Pete]

But are you guys really so fixated on these things that it\'s impossible to look at it from another angle? That sure doesn\'t sound like a healthy approach. I would really like to have this discussion without all the the trashing and meaningless arguments because it could be really interesting.

I mean, had AD ever been asked for it all I would see your points much better, but to my eye it sure hasn\'t looked like it yet. And why then, when you have \"all the data in the world\" (i.e a sample of 45 where Pletcher has had multiple runners in most of them and most of them again without any realistic hope), are you not even open to even consider that Pletcher finally does something right when he eases a horse into the Derby. How can you take those numbers so seriously then? I mean he\'s been out training until now and just happened to win them all, Florida Derby was the first time they ever wanted something out of him but still one was under the impression that there should be more left in the tank. And he ran that race in the fastest Florida Derby time since Alydar in 1978.

It\'s silly IMO to use those numbers in a hunt for the perfect pattern, I mean did you also bet against American Pharaoh every time he raced because he had a 10 point jump second time out? (which he btw never regressed from). Why was Orb\'s 6,5 point jump so much better (after all he had given it all in many races going into the derby). I saw they were \"explaining\" that with lasix at the time in the seminar, but come on, how could you be confident in assigning causality to that? It was no reaction with 1st time lasix.. It just seems like you guys do a lot of cherry picking when \"validating\" your theories, and it\'s my humble opinion that one should always be open for looking at things in a different way.

If AD wins this year Pletcher would be the co-most winning derby trainer this millennium.

And no, I didn\'t say it should be a no-brainer to bet AD as the 2nd choice, I was responding to an estimate of 10/1, as 4th choice.

All the derbies the last 5-6 years have been won by horses winning multiple races in a row going into the derby, AD is the only one that fits that bill, isn\'t that worth something? You have a horse in AD that ran a good number last time, visually very impressive, extremely impressive on the clock in a race that has been the best predictor of Derby success, and he also possesses the most successfull running style by far in Kentucky Derby this century. Isn\'t that worth something either?

And he isn\'t up against anything else one could possibly have great confidence in.

So am I really a silly, silly man for suggesting that he could be worth a bet at a price of 10/1? That is he needs to win 1 out of 11 times to break even.

Jeez. Tough crowd!

[Topcat]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jimbo66 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I don\'t know what to say Pete.  
> >
> > You still don\'t know where you are, do you?
> > Posting nonsense about a 1 figure horse, with a
> > horse @#$%& pattern, trained by a 1-50 Kentucky
> > Derby trainer, and saying it is a no-brainer to
> > bet this horse as one of the top 2 favorites.
> > Yikes.  
> >
> > You are allowed your opinion.  I am glad you
> have
> > it.  But If I want to be an extreme bleeding
> heart
> > liberal I can be, but I probably don\'t show up
> at
> > a Trump rally full of the opposite.
> >
> > silly silly man.  I am guessing exuberance of
> > youth.  I am setting 22.5 as the
> over/under.....
>
> I haven\'t seen Always Dreaming\'s sheet, so i
> cannot really comment on him.  However, I am
> curious what the take is on War Emblem?  Here was
> a horse that had pretty clearly showed a reaction
> point/established level at 8 and then jumped up to
> run a 1 and followed it with a pair and a jump
> forward in the Derby.  Maybe he was a bet against
> also and the answer is that nothing is black and
> white 0-100%......However, there does seem to be
> times where the jump up was really out of context
> and the horse cannot be expected to duplicate it
> and there are times where the horse is just a new
> horse...something clicked or changed.  I have no
> idea what the story is on Always Dreaming....just
> the mention of the 7 point jump up made me think
> of War Emblem.

. . . then you get into the prevailing sustained phenomenon of BB\'s horses being so consistently resistant to bounces.  

      And I\'ve believed in the \"bounce theory\" since my maturity.

[FrankD.]

Rich,

What are you doing up so late? You\'re an early morning poster. I\'m hoping your not on suicide watch over that hockey team that plays on Chicago\'s west side?