Wood Memorial

[jimbo66]

Hmm...

55-1 on the likely favorite.

Coming in what will be a huge top, albeit with the grain of the track on a pretty intensely biased day.

What did the guy with the huge future on Leicester City do?  He sold it before they clinched, at a profit.

Good luck

[jimbo66]

JoeB,

Would bet a whole lot of money that the Florida Derby winner is NOT the DErby favorite.

One stakes race, no 2 year old foundation, slow figures except for 1 race.  

Not to mention that even the general public and people who know nothing at all about horse racing (like BellsBendBoy), are aware of Pletcher\'s Derby record.

He will take money.  But no favorite.

Jim

[FrankD.]

A big win by Classic Empire next week may make him the favorite?
I think we are looking at a 4/1 or 9/2 favorite the first Saturday in May.

[mjellish]

When I\'m alive to decent future bet I usually offer to cut someone in for a fair price, usually someone who also can reciprocate worthwhile info somewhere else down the line.  That way you are both eliminating risk, guaranteeing a profit AND doing someone a favor that could pay dividends.  

Dunno what to do with IWC in 4 weeks.  Trainer won with Animal Kingdom a few years ago, but this is a much different type of colt who already reacted once to a 2 1/2 point new top.  I note that the trainer gave him 3 weeks off before his next work after the Dec 31st win, then 2 works before his win in the Holy Bull.  Then another 3 weeks off, one work and the bounce in the FOY.  Then another 3 weeks off, 2 works and the forward move yesterday.  

3 weeks between a race and next work is long time.  My guess is racing takes a lot out of this colt. If the 2 point move to top of 1ish set him back, what is 3 or so point move to a big negative number for a 3 year old likely to do?  Off 4 weeks rest?

My best guess is typically I would read IWC sheet as \"next race the bounce is coming again\" unless I have strong evidence to the contrary.  

With Animal Kingdom there was some question about how he would handle dirt so we got to see a strong 6F work at Churchill before the Derby that was lights out.  We probably don\'t get to see if this colt can do that.  The plan as I understand it is to take IWC back to Fair Hill and ship in last week to Churchill.  He already has a history of light training between races so we aren\'t likely to learn a thing.

Going to be a tough read.

[TGJB]

I think I can probably use Betfair to middle the future bet. Oaks pool should be liquid.

[pizzalove]

Wood is a tough one to call.  You can argue that this was the most impressive prep winner so far.  If there is a concern its the 39 and change for the last three furlongs.  It would help if he gets an American Pharoah type setup in Derby.

I wouldn\'t mind seeing Motion win.  You know this horse will be competently trained.

[TGJB]

Late part of Wood day ended up being very tough to work out, I\'m going to have to review it as horses come back. Which probably won\'t happen before the Derby.

I ended up having the track slowing down quite a bit, and still ended up with a ton of X\'s in the Gazelle. Lots of wind all day, and they last watered it after the fifth race. Very tricky, and obviously very important. Gave both winners big new tops.

[sekrah]

mjellish, trust your instincts and analysis. Some are born to take a beating, others can\'t.  This is without a doubt a slow recovery horse.  He\'ll win some big races later this summer, but he\'s an easy toss for the Derby.

[TGJB]

Correction, watered after fifth and tenth.

[johnnym]

MJELLISH:
Your post really got in my head as I was all set to wheel this horse.
I went to bed with your post in my head and woke up with it.
My only explanation is do you trust Motion?
It is well known the owners want to win the Haskell more than the Derby with this NJ Bred.
IWC would of had more time between the FL Derby and the KY Derby than the Wood and the KY Derby to recover.
With that being said I do not believe Motion will run a horse that is not 100% ready to compete in the Derby.

[Wrongly]

John

Won\'t run unless he\'s 100%.  

1. That doesn\'t mean he can\'t or won\'t bounce.  Some trainers for whatever reason are able to avoid the bounce, aka Baffert.  Can you say the same for Motion?

2. I\'m remind of the revered Michael Matz running Barbaro in the Preakness.  Anyone who saw that colt the morning of the Preakness knew he wasn\'t right.  Yet they ran, never thinking something terrible might happen.  The point is there\'s pressure to run and run they will even at 51%.

[Niall]

Was listening to Steve Byk yesterday and heard that the Excelsior came back with a 119 Beyer. Didnt catch what the Wood winner rec\'d, but that nmbr is Arrogate territory. Cant wait to see the track variant. Wondering if the FTL in the Holy Bull precipitated the Moon bounce for IWC in the FOY?

The Oaks s/b interesting as well with Mandella\'s horse running off the screen 1st time long. I\'m gonna guess a knockout nmbr?

[TGJB]

Would Motion have run a horse that wasn\'t 100% ready to compete in the Fountain Of Youth?

[johnnym]

Good points by all.
I like the FTL theory as well.
Since this horse is at Fair Hill what is the best way to keep tabs on him?
Thanks
John

[Niall]

I am sure that he wouldnt. Using the analogy that sometimes a trainer doesnt know the horse is sick until the stress of a race brings it out, maybe the big # run as FTL exacerbated the regression. Its too bad we may find out in the KY Derby as one of the Favs (likely).