Thoughts on UAE Derby

[ajkreider]

Will have to see how the time stacks up for the rest of the card (historically, it\'s solid), but my initial reaction is that the Derby winner wasn\'t in there.  Epicharis was game for sure, and did all the pace making.  Thunder Snow was wide and also up on it.  

But they were coming back to the pack at the line.  The 3 and 4 finishers may be the ones to want going forward.  Against this crop of 3 year old, that might be good enough, but I\'ll be betting against it if they come here.  (Full disclosure, I have a future bet on Epi)

[boston]

I like Epicharis.  He can be on the lead or sit in the pocket, as he did in the Hyacinth.  Because of your post on Feb 24 - I also have futures on Epicharis and Malagancy.  Thank you.

[boston]

Just saw the stretch replay - Thunder Snow seem to get scared of the giant television screen and bore out for a couple of jumps.  TS was very game to win that race.

[ajkreider]

Certainly liked the way he re-broke to come back on the leader.  Master Plan caught him on the gallop-out, but they went on together.  The track seemed tiring (see Sharp Azteca) and it\'s windy, so it was a good effort to be sure.  Will be interesting to see the number.

Edit:  Jock said that TS changed to the wrong lead twice in the stretch.  Makes the win that much more impressive.  Trakus has him running the farthest as well.

Edit #2: Thunder Snow went through the 1900 meters about 1.5 seconds slower than Arrogate, and was as wide, according to Trakus. He was about a point lighter, but still, that\'s going to work out to a very good number for TS.  Gonna guess around a 1, which means I\'m going to have to reassess my initial thoughts on the winner\'s chances in May.

[Furious Pete]

It\'s not an easy race to assign figures to but I think Thunder Snow probably will come back in the 3-range, which makes him possibly the most serious threat coming out of a UAE Derby until now, specially when one is considering how he earned that number. Lani had a bit of trouble last year but also ran a few points slower, progressed well from there and earned a lot of respect both here and elsewhere (in spite of his \"studid\" racing style). Mubtaahij the year before was about as fast as Thunder Snow by my calculations, a tiny bit slower perhaps, but he had a perfect race that time. To be fair, he too has developed into a very respectable horse since that.

No matter which figure one ends up giving Thunder Snow, one will have to give him about 2 and 2/3 TG-points more than Epicharis (who perhaps could have fared even better on a \"normal\" Meydan-track, all though it\'s not given).

Edit: That is by using ground from Trakus

[Wrongly]

Word out of Dubai, Epicharis to ship to the US but will bypass Derby and wait for Preakness or Belmont.

[atakante]

It\'s smart of the connections.  He\'ll have a better chance at Pimlico.  Glad I didn\'t bet on him in the early pools.