Derby Future Wager Package

[tmcdevitt]

Please include No Dozing. Thanks

[TGAB]

Yes, indeed. And if anyone else wants another potential contender, please post. The Derby Future package will be available Friday afternoon.

[phil23]

Bronze Age (Baffert), Third Day (TAP), Looking for Eight (was Tomlinson, now Casse), Thunder Snow (ire) (a godolphin horse likely for the UAE Derby), Master Plan (a TAP also possible for the UAE Derby). Thanks muchly.

Anyone else surprised how the whole world seems intent on avoiding the Gotham? It\'s become such a walkover race that Lynch has decided to run the one horse who actually doesn\'t need points (or more racing...but I digress...). Both Dutrow and Brown talked about it for Mo Town and Practical Joke, but both seem to have decided on tougher (RS & FoY) spots. It\'s 50 huge points for winner that no one sees to want.  Why would you run Practical Joke against IWC, Gunny, and Three Rules, when you could just come up North vs much much lighter?

Seems odd.

[Fairmount1]

I have wondered the same thing with Mo Town since Gotham was the original intent since his win on Aqu main.

Best guesses include:
1.  The inner dirt is \"quirky\" and less winter weather concerns in La/Fla
2.  Fear of Cathal Lynch\'s Areeb
3.  For Mo Town (not PJ), timing of an extra week to leave more options/timing towards the Derby.
4.  For PJ, no shipping issues for planning for Fla Derby or Wood.

[big18741]

The extra week for Mo Town makes a lot of sense.

They can come back in five weeks for the Wood then another five into the Derby.
Or they can adjust based on his performance on Saturday.Maybe he needs an extra week and they run him a week later in the Bluegrass(mentioned as a possible next spot along with the Wood)

Just realized Wood and Bluegrass are April 8th which would be 6 weeks from the Risen Star and 4 weeks to the Derby.Maybe he\'s just ready to run.

[phil23]

phenomenal package - thank you

[phil23]

good stuff guys -  yep still don\'t quite get it but obviously each of Dutrow and Brown are doing what they think best so I guess we just wait and watch.

[ajkreider]

Early of course, and these are usually sucker bets, but I couldn\'t help looking.  A couple of surprises so far.

Epicharis is north of 50-1. Would have thought Lani\'s decent showing would weigh here, and it might yet.  Will put something down if he stays there.

Malagacy around 60-1. Looks like a miler but has put up some really big numbers.  And his daddy held his speed very well around two turns.  Is there an Animal Kingdom or Mucho Macho Man in this crop?

Battalion Runner gets the Pletcher curse of the last one, and hasn\'t been on the worktab since the last race.  But talented.  Worth a stab if he continues higher (now around 55-1)

All others at 12-1 seems generous this far out.

[phil23]

that last one you mention feels like a change of pace from him - maybe Vinnie knows that only at GP can they fire and the grade 1 is the be and end all (lord knows he swerved AP in the BC) but...maybe he\'s an analytics guy with his hockey team and they embrace change there...mabye they\'ve convinced Todd that waiting is better. Dunno...either way, he\'ll be forgottoen in this pool. Need to see that work this weekend tho for sure.

[phil23]

M - he is a decision eh? but at the price maybe just have to take the shot. Rebel and then who knows...maybe they just train up to it, it\'s a new world. at this point AA is only real competition there (serious of course given BB\'s record) not like petrov or lee or royal mo going to scare anyone. he\'s lengths faster than them already but Shaq not exactly killing it routing is he? 50+ I\'m in.

[phil23]

btw, what on early has happened to Good Samaritan? Keen observers might notice he was included, unprompted in prior pools here - for good reason - but easy...not a peep of a work since juvie turf. too bad. still 4 weeks to Spiral if they got back immediately and really wanted to push it but...it\'s getting late in the day. Tho of course a certain turf horse in 2008 didn\'t debut till early march in an off the turf race and well...we know how that went.

tick tick tick.

[Michael D.]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Early of course, and these are usually sucker
> bets, but I couldn\'t help looking.  A couple of
> surprises so far.
>
> Epicharis is north of 50-1. Would have thought
> Lani\'s decent showing would weigh here, and it
> might yet.  Will put something down if he stays
> there.
>
> Malagacy around 60-1. Looks like a miler but has
> put up some really big numbers.  And his daddy
> held his speed very well around two turns.  Is
> there an Animal Kingdom or Mucho Macho Man in this
> crop?
>
> Battalion Runner gets the Pletcher curse of the
> last one, and hasn\'t been on the worktab since the
> last race.  But talented.  Worth a stab if he
> continues higher (now around 55-1)
>
> All others at 12-1 seems generous this far out.
 


 I took a shot with Epicharis at 41-1. Not sure exactly how much value is there, but the prices on the big names look too low, leaving some of these longshots with decent looking numbers. Epi should run all day, and has a pretty clear path to the race. Backed it up with a saver on the field.

[Tavasco]

FWIW

As one who is still encouraging Lani to catch up I\'ll add the running style of Epicharis is to be on or in touch with the pacesetter (to date). This may be a plus in U.S. races and keep him from pulling a Lani - i.e. falling so out of contention that only a pace meltdown could help.

I watched the last race of Epicharis. He chased and ran down a very game front runner to win. Those two being clearly the best two in that particular race. He didn\'t exactly burst past the pacesetter more of a steady move and lengthened his lead after passing the lightly raced sprinter who was stretching out.

Hard to compare Japanese vs California horses with confidence. But @ 41/1 not the most foolish stab I\'ve seen. I hope he makes the race for you!

[Michael D.]

yes, I\'m expecting some tactical speed from Epicharis. it will be a great sign if he does show speed in Dubai, as there is a solid mix of Euro stamina and dirt class on the bottom of the pedigree.

I got some action down earlier in Vegas at better levels. one book was showing 120-1, but that disappeared quickly.

[ajkreider]

I think some decent money came in late Sunday.  It went from the high 40s to the low 40s pretty quickly, when the pool was already at size. Would have preferred a bit more, but this one already has the points, so . . . .