ROTW - Pebbles

[Wrongly]

Interesting race and lots of different ways some of these can be viewed.  Believe in Bertie forging line and never regressed will be my top choice.  Stella Rose pairs up the 6 for Clement and Welcoming goes 2nd off the layoff, a strong angle for him.  Sure I could use a little of Louisville First, why not at anything close to morning line.

[jbelfior]

There may be 4 of them within a length of each other at the wire. I\'ll go with Welcoming to improve enough and with the weight break gets there at 8-1 or better.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[FrankD.]

Joe,

4 within a length at the wire may just be an understatement!

This is an awesome betting race and you can make a very legitimate argument for 10 of the 13 entered to be in the trifecta.

Ancient Secrets last race is a total and complete throw out as well as a non effort where she did not expend much more energy than a work out. For Chad to bring this one back in 3 weeks says a lot about that. I can only hope that weight and ground loss will keep her out of the top position and will play accordingly in a defensive position using her very lightly in the 2nd slot and heavily in the 3rd and 4th slots.

The 4 I\'ll surround her with and make a small tri and super box with in case she runs completely out are Believe in Bertie, Ultra Brat, Welcoming & Insta Erma.

This race ends a pick 3 sequence that starts in the 6th race with a horse that may be a major wager for me today. Plainview loves this course and distance, beat the favorite on it last September and has my favorite Florida front end pilot in Tyler
Gaffalione on board. He apparently is only in town for the day and has picked up a few mounts by a hustling jock agent. I have no allusions of 10/1 on this one but 5 or 6/1 will make me hit send a few times.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[Tavasco]

The aforementioned view of a crowd at the finish line reminds me of how often my view of the race is contradicted by the actual results. Yet such a finish will be fun for some.

My view is a simple one. Only two of the contenders have run a 6 in a route on the turf. Stella Rose and Believe in Bertie. Stella Rose looks poised to improve and BiB just needs to avoid a regression. I\'ll dutch the two.

My compliments to the ROTW analysis. I consider it very comprehensive. Yet I am mildly perplexed by the apparent lack of consideration for figures earned at sprint vs route distances. e.g. I\'m suspicious that both Welcoming & Instant Erma won\'t be around at the finish line. Opting to believe in a runner\'s results rather than depend on pedigree supposition.

If FrankD is correct about drawing a line thru Chad Brown\'s Ancient Secret it\'ll just be another race win that leaves me disappointed.  Her last race failure is curious. I suppose bounced with rest is plausible. I could use her defensively in the top spot over my choices, but will not preferring instead to keep it simple here and preserve my doubt about nefarious activities.

[belmont3]

nice hit Frank!  

[jp702006]

Nice call on Plainview Frank! Good luck on the rest of your horizontal.

Patrick

[milwmike]

Nice call.

Mike

[yesthatwouldbeme]

Thanks Frank!! Great call.

Really enjoyed the ROTW analysis this week, thanks for the detail, now betting it...

[dodie]

Way to go Frank!  Great handicapping!

[jbelfior]

Any logic to a young girl? .....Exactly.

......and none for 3yo fillies on the turf.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[t_fin]

great call, frank

[Tavasco]

Logic?

Surely one could read Thundering Sky as capable of moving forward some more. Two months of late summer rest and then pairs her previous top. I don\'t notice Weaver sneak up on a race that often. Usually the betting public see his good ones coming.

Joe Sharp\'s 2nd place bomb, it could be argued, was helped by the quickish pace. One could speculate she couldn\'t kick with the established turf gals with a slow pace. But it was proven today the proven turf gals couldn\'t kick much with today\'s pace. Pace still controversial.

Hard for me to believe it was the crowd who Believed in Bertie enough to beat her down to 4/1. Not to mention the human factor of trainer jockey who encouraged her to win the race from the front.

Ancient Secret ran credibly and Irad can bully, bump and herd but still learning the nuances of judging the pace on turf. I suppose she is going to the Breeder\'s Cup and wonder who the Euros will send.

Surprising Race!

[FrankD.]

Not only that, No LOGIC to pace in NY turf races overall, too slow or like today way too fast!!!

The Weaver horse was one of ten IMHO that you could have used, the Sharp horse, not soooooooo much.

I was alive with 5 large pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s with those 5 into the last race winner. A very good 2 days of wagering but OH boy what could have been today!!!!

Thanks for all the congrats on Plainview as we try to really fatten up the BC bankroll:)

Frank D.

[Tavasco]

Correction!

I originally thought the Sharp trained first time turfer and second place finisher had been near the front of the pack chasing the pace setter. She wasn\'t. She did her running from last or near to it. Rather she took to the turf which is not an angle I\'m fond of.

In retrospect I cannot argue/suggest the pace helped or hindered any one or group of runners. I think the top three are to be respected and maybe Bertie s/b sprinting.

over and out.

[BitPlayer]

The Sharp trainee was Maggie\'s \"bomb.\"  Said she had the look of a turf filly.