Kentucky Downs - Sunday - Race 8

[sparacingfan]

I have been using TG Sheets for a couple of years now - but am still very much a newbie when it comes to understanding the patterns that I should be looking for and how to effectively use this product to maximize its benefits.

I am taking a stab at Kentucky Downs tomorrow - a track that I rarely play.  For this post I am focusing on race 8 at Kentucky Downs.

I am hoping to get some guidance from some of the veterans on this site.

So here goes - please share insights if you want.  If this is not the proper place for this type of post - please let me know.

School board Prez - looks to slow - but the Thoropattern for the trainer looks promising - how should I be applying the thcropattern star for the trainer to my handicapping - how much should I value this?

Harlan County - Lasix on --> what value do folks put on this?  and how much growth can we expect from a 3 year old when they are unarmed as a 2 year old?

Inconclusive - the \"6\" is very competitive in this field - how should this pattern be interpreted - was the \"10\" to be expected?  Should we expect a forward move here?  High weight - morning line 20-1.

Galilea looks to slow - but with only 5 races - and a healthy pattern - should we expect improvement here and if yes - how much?

Taralena - looks like a good pattern w good rest between races - Clement with positive thcropattern numbers - I would expect this horse to run a new top.  But we started with a \"14\" now at \"8\" - is more growth unrealistic?

Try Your Luck - appears to have most talent in this field - did the \"5\" hurt her or does she appear to be circling back?  She bore out last race - is she likely to go the wrong way?  Likely favorite.

Leafy Shade - good rest going in - appears to be too slow.

Shelbysmile - lightly raced, nice pattern - if she improves again - how much growth can we expect?  A pair is too slow - but improvement could make her a contender.

Mine as Well - 2nd turf start jumped 7 points - good rest going in - not familiar with trainer but has good thoropattern numbers - should we expect this horse to bounce or is this a live 20-1 shot?

Blame it on Me - another Clement horse with a positive pattern. Joe Bravo on board.

Outsider Art - Jonathon Sheppard sends this horse out for the 7th time since April - top is a \"7\" 2 races back.  Is this a healthy pattern or is a non-effort in the cards here?

Celestial Insight - appears to be too slow.

Mines and Magic - dangerous if draws in - ran a \"7\" 1st time on turf.  Not familiar with trainer.

Quiet Business - another one that appears too slow.

The other big questions to consider here is the distance - 1 5/16 and does the jockey have experience & success at KD.

Sorry for all of the questions and for taking up so much time with this post - if you want to weigh in it would be very much appreciated.  Still trying to learn!

[TGJB]

It\'s the right place for this type of post, but it\'s not clear what your opinion is. Yes, you established what the questions are in most cases.

[sparacingfan]

I like Taralena w/ Outsider Art & Gaililea.  Will box those 3 with win bet on Taralena.

[SoCalMan2]

sparacingfan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have been using TG Sheets for a couple of years
> now - but am still very much a newbie when it
> comes to understanding the patterns that I should
> be looking for and how to effectively use this
> product to maximize its benefits.
>
> I am taking a stab at Kentucky Downs tomorrow - a
> track that I rarely play.  For this post I am
> focusing on race 8 at Kentucky Downs.
>
> I am hoping to get some guidance from some of the
> veterans on this site.
>
> So here goes - please share insights if you want.
> If this is not the proper place for this type of
> post - please let me know.
>
> School board Prez - looks to slow - but the
> Thoropattern for the trainer looks promising - how
> should I be applying the thcropattern star for the
> trainer to my handicapping - how much should I
> value this?
>
> Harlan County - Lasix on --> what value do folks
> put on this?  and how much growth can we expect
> from a 3 year old when they are unarmed as a 2
> year old?
>
> Inconclusive - the \"6\" is very competitive in this
> field - how should this pattern be interpreted -
> was the \"10\" to be expected?  Should we expect a
> forward move here?  High weight - morning line
> 20-1.
>
> Galilea looks to slow - but with only 5 races -
> and a healthy pattern - should we expect
> improvement here and if yes - how much?
>
> Taralena - looks like a good pattern w good rest
> between races - Clement with positive thcropattern
> numbers - I would expect this horse to run a new
> top.  But we started with a \"14\" now at \"8\" - is
> more growth unrealistic?
>
> Try Your Luck - appears to have most talent in
> this field - did the \"5\" hurt her or does she
> appear to be circling back?  She bore out last
> race - is she likely to go the wrong way?  Likely
> favorite.
>
> Leafy Shade - good rest going in - appears to be
> too slow.
>
> Shelbysmile - lightly raced, nice pattern - if she
> improves again - how much growth can we expect?  A
> pair is too slow - but improvement could make her
> a contender.
>
> Mine as Well - 2nd turf start jumped 7 points -
> good rest going in - not familiar with trainer but
> has good thoropattern numbers - should we expect
> this horse to bounce or is this a live 20-1 shot?
>
> Blame it on Me - another Clement horse with a
> positive pattern. Joe Bravo on board.
>
> Outsider Art - Jonathon Sheppard sends this horse
> out for the 7th time since April - top is a \"7\" 2
> races back.  Is this a healthy pattern or is a
> non-effort in the cards here?
>
> Celestial Insight - appears to be too slow.
>
> Mines and Magic - dangerous if draws in - ran a
> \"7\" 1st time on turf.  Not familiar with trainer.
>
> Quiet Business - another one that appears too
> slow.
>
> The other big questions to consider here is the
> distance - 1 5/16 and does the jockey have
> experience & success at KD.
>
> Sorry for all of the questions and for taking up
> so much time with this post - if you want to weigh
> in it would be very much appreciated.  Still
> trying to learn!

You picked one tough race to look at.  I could see a very wide array of outcomes in this race.  Would be very hard to play.

However, having said that, in my view, you have chosen the \"wrong\" Clement horse here as in another post you said you prefer Taralena.  I view Blame It On Me as more likely to run better than Taralena.  If the ML is correct and the former goes off around 8-1 while the latter goes off at 9-2, the former looks like a decent stab to me.  

The race is very wide open for a lot of reasons, but just looking at these two horses.......BIOM has run two figures better than any fig that Taralena has ever run.  Also BIOM is very lightly raced and has, in my view, more license to move up and move up more than Taralena.  I agree that Taralena has a nice line and is likely to move forward, but she has been moving forward in very small increments and even if you factor her to move forward, how do you figure her to move forward a lot with all the experience and time she has?  I will say that Clement\'s choice of spots for these fillies suggests he has been higher on Taralena than he has been on BIOM, but he did think well enough of BIOM to ship her here, so maybe what they have shown on the track has finally shown him there is not a lot to separate them.  the crowd may favor Taralena because of the company she has kept, but BIOM looks just as good if not better and you get an extra price on her because people are prejudiced against her perceived minor league status.

Just my two cents.  This race looks impossible.

Edited to correct grammar.

[sparacingfan]

Thanks for the insight SoCalMan2.  I agree it looks like a very tough race.

[SoCalMan2]

sparacingfan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks for the insight SoCalMan2.  I agree it
> looks like a very tough race.


I could not have gotten it more wrong.  Second choice runs huge, favorite (which you liked) runs second.  All I can say is that if I have to lose a race like this, I would much rather get beaten by the favorite and second choice rather than figure long shots to come in, but get the wrong long shots.