The Skidmore - Saratoga R3 8/19/2016

[Niall]

My attempt at analysis ... Given the short field and likely short odds, this race for me is normally a pass, however, it is a NYRABETS free Travers $$ race (bet $50 to win, receive $25)  and I am 2 for 3 thus far in these races. Appreciate any feedback. Full disclosure I am incorporating multiple handicapping tools (TG/Bris/Replay)

Wellabled - Arlington shipper courtesy of Larry Rivelli. Not that familiar with his work but % looks strong. Crushed weak field on the Synth, now moves to grass. Bred for it on the bottom. $340k OBS purchase. Picks up Irad. Visually impressive, no TG # I\'m assuming very little data. Lone turf work seems fine.

Gemologister - 3rd start in 20 days. Trainer likes to run them. See Copingaway in the 9th. 16 starts for him this year. Dont see it but a half to Rutherienne. Out of first year stallion Gemologist. Would need a giant jump to contend.

Harlan\'s Harmony - 75k OBS purchase out of a mare with 3 stakes winners out of 4 foals to race, including Fourstardave contender Tourist. Popped the fields best figure 1st out for a trainer much better with 2nd timers. No support at the windows first out.

Mbrace Grace - 1st time starter, same trainer as Gemologister. Steady drill including a nice work from gate.

Freud\'s Friend - NY Bred faces open company 3 weeks off the maiden win. Fig is ok, hot trainer (Last 90 days) but very weak on the quick turnaround.

Iron Mane - ships in for WW after breaking maiden at Indiana with a competitive figure. Half to Cause to Believe, a 5 time SW on dirt. Sire (The Factor) is hitting at 30% overall 1st crop and 75% on turf. Recd gift when speed in initial race try blew the turn. Not going to get the 9-1 on a 2 year old WW trainee. Recent work was quite strong.

I\'m expecting the public to overbet the 1 and the 6 thus settling on the 3, my theory being the horse outran his training and has significant upside and the price should be right.

Yup, slow day at work here in Saratoga...

[gohorse]

Well Done.