Saratoga Morning Line

[P-Dub]

I can\'t believe all of the consternation over the ML.

Bad MLs happen all over the country. Races everywhere, routinely, have horses drift up or down from the ML. Every day.  Ever see a ML from Evangeline Downs or CharlesTown? The actual odds can be wildly different from the ML. Yes, the pools are smaller. But it happens. It happens everywhere.

Ok, so maybe the guy doing Saratoga isn\'t as accurate as other places. I get it. It still shouldn\'t warrant all of the commotion.

I agree 100% with MJellish. \"Point 2: The job of the handicapper is to try to figure out our own line of who will most likely hit the board so we can decide if it offers value enough to bet our money to hopefully cash a ticket. This is irrespective of whatever the morning line person says.\"

Its your responsibility, after handicapping the race, to figure out who offers value.  You can do this by looking at the data. How many times have we seen a ROTW mention a horse with hidden form, a poor finishing position relative to the trip he got? This horse could be ML 4/1 and drift to 7/1.  He could be ML 10/1 and drop to 7/2. Happens all over the country. That\'s not the fault of the ML guy. You expect the guy to have a crystal ball, and accurately predict the betting patterns of the public every stinking race? Especially with the abundance of 2YOs and FTS?

I\'ve handicapped P3/4, and have seen ML that I don\'t agree with.  I construct my tickets according to how I feel the race will be bet. Enough with the complaining about it taking more time. That time is negligible. Yes, the ML should assist you. But if you see a sequence with a bad ML, then its your job to compensate for that. Some of the examples given, regarding how it affects you or hypothetical situations, are just ridiculous.

He\'s had a rough meet making the line, and it can make it challenging to construct tickets. Put your big boy pants on and work around it.

[Boscar Obarra]

Certainly all true. Even if you think the ML is poorly done, it\'s no excuse for any failure at horseplay.

 The case COULD be made that if the ML guy puts a 3-1 shot at 10-1 , then the public will think its \'smart money\' and pile in. Might hurt the price.

[msola1]

Can anyone give me a methodology for determining that a horse\'s chances to win a race are 8% (or any other percent)?

If you  think that\'s a dumb question, please don\'t respond. Just think it. But I\'d really like to know how to go about making the actual line you speak of.

Thanks,

Mike
PS: If you want to respond but don\'t want to take up the forum\'s time with it, you can talk to me by e-mail.

[SoCalMan2]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I can\'t believe all of the consternation over the
> ML.
>
> Bad MLs happen all over the country. Races
> everywhere, routinely, have horses drift up or
> down from the ML. Every day.  Ever see a ML from
> Evangeline Downs or CharlesTown? The actual odds
> can be wildly different from the ML. Yes, the
> pools are smaller. But it happens. It happens
> everywhere.
>
> Ok, so maybe the guy doing Saratoga isn\'t as
> accurate as other places. I get it. It still
> shouldn\'t warrant all of the commotion.
>
> I agree 100% with MJellish. \"Point 2: The job of
> the handicapper is to try to figure out our own
> line of who will most likely hit the board so we
> can decide if it offers value enough to bet our
> money to hopefully cash a ticket. This is
> irrespective of whatever the morning line person
> says.\"
>
> Its your responsibility, after handicapping the
> race, to figure out who offers value.  You can do
> this by looking at the data. How many times have
> we seen a ROTW mention a horse with hidden form, a
> poor finishing position relative to the trip he
> got? This horse could be ML 4/1 and drift to 7/1.
> He could be ML 10/1 and drop to 7/2. Happens all
> over the country. That\'s not the fault of the ML
> guy. You expect the guy to have a crystal ball,
> and accurately predict the betting patterns of the
> public every stinking race? Especially with the
> abundance of 2YOs and FTS?
>
> I\'ve handicapped P3/4, and have seen ML that I
> don\'t agree with.  I construct my tickets
> according to how I feel the race will be bet.
> Enough with the complaining about it taking more
> time. That time is negligible. Yes, the ML should
> assist you. But if you see a sequence with a bad
> ML, then its your job to compensate for that. Some
> of the examples given, regarding how it affects
> you or hypothetical situations, are just
> ridiculous.
>
> He\'s had a rough meet making the line, and it can
> make it challenging to construct tickets. Put your
> big boy pants on and work around it.

You are such a talented handicapper that you don\'t need extra time to figure out if the ML is right or wrong. That is good for you. Some of us are not as smart as you and it takes us extra time to do that. It must not come as a surprise to you that there are handicappers less talented than you.

The ML is by definition an estimate or a projection. It will always never be right. The issue for those of us not as talented as you whether the misses are often and huge or are misses within a zone of reasonableness.

Unfortunately, telling its customers to put on their big boy pants and take it in the rear is SOP at the NYRA.

[SoCalMan2]

msola1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can anyone give me a methodology for determining
> that a horse\'s chances to win a race are 8% (or
> any other percent)?
>
> If you  think that\'s a dumb question, please don\'t
> respond. Just think it. But I\'d really like to
> know how to go about making the actual line you
> speak of.
>
> Thanks,
>
> Mike
> PS: If you want to respond but don\'t want to take
> up the forum\'s time with it, you can talk to me by
> e-mail.

Here is an example -- if you have a 12 horse race, and you cannot separate them.  You think every horse has an equal chance with all the other horses.  Then each horse has an 8.33% chance to win.  That is just an example.

Usually, when i handicap, i try to rank the horses first or put them in tiers.  Then I work from there. it is not a science and your numbers are never perfect...you are just trying to get approximations.

Does that help?

[SoCalMan2]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Certainly all true. Even if you think the ML is
> poorly done, it\'s no excuse for any failure at
> horseplay.
>
>  The case COULD be made that if the ML guy puts a
> 3-1 shot at 10-1 , then the public will think its
> \'smart money\' and pile in. Might hurt the price.

I am not making it an excuse.  I am accusing it of requiring me to do extra work that I don\'t normally have to do.

[Mathcapper]

msola1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can anyone give me a methodology for determining
> that a horse\'s chances to win a race are 8% (or
> any other percent)?
>
> If you  think that\'s a dumb question, please don\'t
> respond. Just think it. But I\'d really like to
> know how to go about making the actual line you
> speak of.

msola1 - if you\'ve never made your own line before, suggest checking out Barry Meadows\' Money Secrets at the Racetrack (pp.20-28).

There\'s also a Morning Line Tool that used to be on Del Mar\'s website but that you can now find at the link below that\'s useful if you\'re not comfortable with spreadsheets.

Ultimately, you of course have to come up with your own probability line (fair odds), whether you do it subjectively yourself (which is what most players do) or write some kind of factor-based algorithm (computer guys).

Morning Line Tool


Rocky R.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

Whether it should or shouldn\'t affect a handicapper and whether a bad morning line can be exploited easily or not at all, it really doesn\'t matter.

How about like in almost all other occupations and industries, the person being paid to perform the job be close to competent.

Travis Stone isn\'t.  He is showing it EVERY DAY.

For me, I am tired of second class treatment in many aspects of the game by the powers to be, to the players (aka the customers)

Stone has to go.  Send him to a minor league circuit for training.

The best meet in our country doesn\'t deserve to have a hack doing the morning line, learning on the job.

Jim

[P-Dub]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I can\'t believe all of the consternation over
> the
> > ML.
> >
> > Bad MLs happen all over the country. Races
> > everywhere, routinely, have horses drift up or
> > down from the ML. Every day.  Ever see a ML
> from
> > Evangeline Downs or CharlesTown? The actual
> odds
> > can be wildly different from the ML. Yes, the
> > pools are smaller. But it happens. It happens
> > everywhere.
> >
> > Ok, so maybe the guy doing Saratoga isn\'t as
> > accurate as other places. I get it. It still
> > shouldn\'t warrant all of the commotion.
> >
> > I agree 100% with MJellish. \"Point 2: The job
> of
> > the handicapper is to try to figure out our own
> > line of who will most likely hit the board so
> we
> > can decide if it offers value enough to bet our
> > money to hopefully cash a ticket. This is
> > irrespective of whatever the morning line
> person
> > says.\"
> >
> > Its your responsibility, after handicapping the
> > race, to figure out who offers value.  You can
> do
> > this by looking at the data. How many times
> have
> > we seen a ROTW mention a horse with hidden form,
> a
> > poor finishing position relative to the trip he
> > got? This horse could be ML 4/1 and drift to
> 7/1.
> > He could be ML 10/1 and drop to 7/2. Happens
> all
> > over the country. That\'s not the fault of the
> ML
> > guy. You expect the guy to have a crystal ball,
> > and accurately predict the betting patterns of
> the
> > public every stinking race? Especially with the
> > abundance of 2YOs and FTS?
> >
> > I\'ve handicapped P3/4, and have seen ML that I
> > don\'t agree with.  I construct my tickets
> > according to how I feel the race will be bet.
> > Enough with the complaining about it taking
> more
> > time. That time is negligible. Yes, the ML
> should
> > assist you. But if you see a sequence with a
> bad
> > ML, then its your job to compensate for that.
> Some
> > of the examples given, regarding how it affects
> > you or hypothetical situations, are just
> > ridiculous.
> >
> > He\'s had a rough meet making the line, and it
> can
> > make it challenging to construct tickets. Put
> your
> > big boy pants on and work around it.
>
> You are such a talented handicapper that you don\'t
> need extra time to figure out if the ML is right
> or wrong. That is good for you. Some of us are not
> as smart as you and it takes us extra time to do
> that. It must not come as a surprise to you that
> there are handicappers less talented than you.
>
> The ML is by definition an estimate or a
> projection. It will always never be right. The
> issue for those of us not as talented as you
> whether the misses are often and huge or are
> misses within a zone of reasonableness.
>
> Unfortunately, telling its customers to put on
> their big boy pants and take it in the rear is SOP
> at the NYRA.

Little touchy there?

It has nothing to do with me being \"better\" or \"smarter\".  And yes, your sarcasm was very clear.

It has to do with me dealing with it.  I don\'t waste my energy writing 50 paragraphs on a forum, and complain over and over and over about the same thing.

Again. Try to comprehend this.  It happens EVERY FREAKING DAY at EVERY FREAKING TRACK.  You think this is just a Saratoga issue? Horses drift up or down from their ML all the time.

Perhaps you are right about me being smarter and a better handicapper. I can figure out which horses should get action, and which ones should be longer.  You desperately need help in that department. Its a piss poor excuse, blaming the ML for you having difficulties making wagers.

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub,
>
> Whether it should or shouldn\'t affect a
> handicapper and whether a bad morning line can be
> exploited easily or not at all, it really doesn\'t
> matter.
>
> How about like in almost all other occupations and
> industries, the person being paid to perform the
> job be close to competent.
>
> Travis Stone isn\'t.  He is showing it EVERY DAY.
>
> For me, I am tired of second class treatment in
> many aspects of the game by the powers to be, to
> the players (aka the customers)
>
> Stone has to go.  Send him to a minor league
> circuit for training.
>
> The best meet in our country doesn\'t deserve to
> have a hack doing the morning line, learning on
> the job.
>
> Jim

Fine Jimbo.  I don\'t disagree with that at all.  His performance, racing not giving its customers what they deserve, all of that. You are spot on.

Its the incessant whining and crying by people like So Cal. Wah Wah sniffle sniffle.  I have to spend a bit more time handicapping a race.

So tell me So Cal, where is all of this sniveling when this happens at other tracks? Because it does, more often than you want to admit.  

Its a pathetic excuse to blame the ML for all of this. As I have said already, this happens at EVERY FREAKING TRACK. EVERY DAY.

You shouldn\'t even need a ML to figure out what horses are probably going to get action. Not every horse, but enough to get a feel for the race.

[johnnym]

Curious how do you handle a maiden race with all first time starters?
Which is common at the track in question.

[SoCalMan2]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jimbo66 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > P-Dub,
> >
> > Whether it should or shouldn\'t affect a
> > handicapper and whether a bad morning line can
> be
> > exploited easily or not at all, it really
> doesn\'t
> > matter.
> >
> > How about like in almost all other occupations
> and
> > industries, the person being paid to perform
> the
> > job be close to competent.
> >
> > Travis Stone isn\'t.  He is showing it EVERY
> DAY.
> >
> > For me, I am tired of second class treatment in
> > many aspects of the game by the powers to be,
> to
> > the players (aka the customers)
> >
> > Stone has to go.  Send him to a minor league
> > circuit for training.
> >
> > The best meet in our country doesn\'t deserve to
> > have a hack doing the morning line, learning on
> > the job.
> >
> > Jim
>
> Fine Jimbo.  I don\'t disagree with that at all.
> His performance, racing not giving its customers
> what they deserve, all of that. You are spot on.
>
> Its the incessant whining and crying by people
> like So Cal. Wah Wah sniffle sniffle.  I have to
> spend a bit more time handicapping a race.
>
> So tell me So Cal, where is all of this sniveling
> when this happens at other tracks? Because it
> does, more often than you want to admit.  
>
> Its a pathetic excuse to blame the ML for all of
> this. As I have said already, this happens at
> EVERY FREAKING TRACK. EVERY DAY.
>
> You shouldn\'t even need a ML to figure out what
> horses are probably going to get action. Not every
> horse, but enough to get a feel for the race.

I only play NYRA and SoCal. I believe you it happens at other tracks. What do you want me to do about that?  I just believe that the product at the top of the market should reflect it is at the top of the market.  They do not have to do that if they do not want to.  It is a matter of customer service.  I think they should be providing normal courtesies that facilitate betting.  They do not.  Fair enough.  You can think I am a pathetic cry baby if you like, but if you want to chase all the pathetic crybabies out of your game, your game will decline.

In almost any other industry in the world, if a customer complains, the motto is the customer is always right.  In horseracing, the customer who complains is a pussy crybaby and should buck up or leave.  The just doesnt seem like a good approach to keep something going.

[SoCalMan2]

johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Curious how do you handle a maiden race with all
> first time starters?
> Which is common at the track in question.


If this question is directed to me, I skip those races unless I am betting live in which case I handicap them with all the live information.  My expectation for a line on a 2yo race is that the line is just not going to be helpful but that is normal.

If a two year old race is in a later leg of a horizontal, I don\'t play the horizontal.

[msola1]

I appreciate the reply, but it doesn\'t bring me much closer.

Of course I know that a starting point might be to divide the percentages equally. Obviously no-one believes they all have an equal chance. How about a next step?

How do you define your particular tiers? And where do you go from there?

I suppose in some bottom tier you might think none had a better than 5% chance. But taken with the rest of the percentages, everything must add up to 100. It\'s all the rest that present me with the conundrum.

[SoCalMan2]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > P-Dub Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > I can\'t believe all of the consternation over
> > the
> > > ML.
> > >
> > > Bad MLs happen all over the country. Races
> > > everywhere, routinely, have horses drift up
> or
> > > down from the ML. Every day.  Ever see a ML
> > from
> > > Evangeline Downs or CharlesTown? The actual
> > odds
> > > can be wildly different from the ML. Yes, the
> > > pools are smaller. But it happens. It happens
> > > everywhere.
> > >
> > > Ok, so maybe the guy doing Saratoga isn\'t as
> > > accurate as other places. I get it. It still
> > > shouldn\'t warrant all of the commotion.
> > >
> > > I agree 100% with MJellish. \"Point 2: The job
> > of
> > > the handicapper is to try to figure out our
> own
> > > line of who will most likely hit the board so
> > we
> > > can decide if it offers value enough to bet
> our
> > > money to hopefully cash a ticket. This is
> > > irrespective of whatever the morning line
> > person
> > > says.\"
> > >
> > > Its your responsibility, after handicapping
> the
> > > race, to figure out who offers value.  You
> can
> > do
> > > this by looking at the data. How many times
> > have
> > > we seen a ROTW mention a horse with hidden
> form,
> > a
> > > poor finishing position relative to the trip
> he
> > > got? This horse could be ML 4/1 and drift to
> > 7/1.
> > > He could be ML 10/1 and drop to 7/2. Happens
> > all
> > > over the country. That\'s not the fault of the
> > ML
> > > guy. You expect the guy to have a crystal
> ball,
> > > and accurately predict the betting patterns
> of
> > the
> > > public every stinking race? Especially with
> the
> > > abundance of 2YOs and FTS?
> > >
> > > I\'ve handicapped P3/4, and have seen ML that
> I
> > > don\'t agree with.  I construct my tickets
> > > according to how I feel the race will be bet.
> > > Enough with the complaining about it taking
> > more
> > > time. That time is negligible. Yes, the ML
> > should
> > > assist you. But if you see a sequence with a
> > bad
> > > ML, then its your job to compensate for that.
> > Some
> > > of the examples given, regarding how it
> affects
> > > you or hypothetical situations, are just
> > > ridiculous.
> > >
> > > He\'s had a rough meet making the line, and it
> > can
> > > make it challenging to construct tickets. Put
> > your
> > > big boy pants on and work around it.
> >
> > You are such a talented handicapper that you
> don\'t
> > need extra time to figure out if the ML is
> right
> > or wrong. That is good for you. Some of us are
> not
> > as smart as you and it takes us extra time to
> do
> > that. It must not come as a surprise to you
> that
> > there are handicappers less talented than you.
> >
> > The ML is by definition an estimate or a
> > projection. It will always never be right. The
> > issue for those of us not as talented as you
> > whether the misses are often and huge or are
> > misses within a zone of reasonableness.
> >
> > Unfortunately, telling its customers to put on
> > their big boy pants and take it in the rear is
> SOP
> > at the NYRA.
>
> Little touchy there?
>
> It has nothing to do with me being \"better\" or
> \"smarter\".  And yes, your sarcasm was very clear.
>
> It has to do with me dealing with it.  I don\'t
> waste my energy writing 50 paragraphs on a forum,
> and complain over and over and over about the same
> thing.
>
> Again. Try to comprehend this.  It happens EVERY
> FREAKING DAY at EVERY FREAKING TRACK.  You think
> this is just a Saratoga issue? Horses drift up or
> down from their ML all the time.
>
> Perhaps you are right about me being smarter and a
> better handicapper. I can figure out which horses
> should get action, and which ones should be
> longer.  You desperately need help in that
> department. Its a piss poor excuse, blaming the ML
> for you having difficulties making wagers.

If you think the ML is so irrelevant, then racetracks across America can save money by firing all their linemakers.  Nothing requires the Track to have a linemaker.  They do it because it is perceived as being a courtesy to customers and to facilitate betting.  If it is truly as irrelevant as you believe it is, the industry is making a big mistake on spending money on something that nobody cares about when that money could be better spent on something else for the customers.