Saratoga Morning Line

[jimbo66]

Funny how you may not appreciate somebody who is doing a good job until they are gone.  Eric Donovan has really been one of the best morning line makers around for a few years.  Those that play the NY circuit would likely agree.

He apparently has moved on to another role and Travis Stone is taking his place.  Ugh.  He has been relatively poor (albeit following a guy who was excellent).

For vertical bettors the ML has less impact, but it has an impact on horizontal wagers for races \"uncovered\" when the bet is made (e.g. 3rd race of pick-3, 3th, 4th and 5th races of the pick-5, etc.

Case in point coming up on Wednesday at Saratoga in the 10th race.  There is about a 2% chance that you can get 12-1 on Chico GRande.  Paired up 67 Beyers in tough Gulfstream races, before a drop where he was claimed by Jason servis.  Can\'t love the layoff off the claim and I am not saying I actually like the horse best, but as well as the Servis horses have been running, Irad ORtiz the leading rider up, and big figures on the page, he isn\'t going to be 12-1.


Jim

[Tavasco]

I think you make a good point it was especially noticeable to me last Sat.

[SoCalMan2]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Funny how you may not appreciate somebody who is
> doing a good job until they are gone.  Eric
> Donovan has really been one of the best morning
> line makers around for a few years.  Those that
> play the NY circuit would likely agree.
>
> He apparently has moved on to another role and
> Travis Stone is taking his place.  Ugh.  He has
> been relatively poor (albeit following a guy who
> was excellent).
>
> For vertical bettors the ML has less impact, but
> it has an impact on horizontal wagers for races
> \"uncovered\" when the bet is made (e.g. 3rd race of
> pick-3, 3th, 4th and 5th races of the pick-5,
> etc.
>
> Case in point coming up on Wednesday at Saratoga
> in the 10th race.  There is about a 2% chance that
> you can get 12-1 on Chico GRande.  Paired up 67
> Beyers in tough Gulfstream races, before a drop
> where he was claimed by Jason servis.  Can\'t love
> the layoff off the claim and I am not saying I
> actually like the horse best, but as well as the
> Servis horses have been running, Irad ORtiz the
> leading rider up, and big figures on the page, he
> isn\'t going to be 12-1.
>
>
> Jim

Agree.

Didn\'t realize how good the outgoing guy was until we got this guy.  THis is having the effect of dramatically reducing my action.  Not good for the NYRA if others act the same way as me.  I do not see how anybody can bet anything except live betting (meaning close to post) for straight bets and verticals.  I have given up on horizontals (except where i can take the double handicapping time to do what it takes to correct his line).

If this doesn\'t get fixed, I am probably going to have to find a different circuit to play.

[Boscar Obarra]

Saratoga is always a hard ML to make, but there were issues late in the Belmont meet as well. Not sure if it was Donovan or not at that point.

[FrankD.]

Case in point:
You know that he will never go off @ 12/1. On Saturday when 40,000 wander aimlessly drunk through the back yard and the idiot that will bet his pay check on Frosted in the Whitney because he ran a 122 Beyer in the Met Mile guess what?
ALL their money goes into the same pool as yours and mine does. What a beautiful thing

One of the great things about the information age is getting DRF past performances 72 hours out and there is no ML posted for the early data or on TG figures either!

My biggest concern lies in the computer teams not being able to reach into the horizontals past their pre race data, will pays and probables. When they do and those payoffs start being cannibalized I\'ll be out of the game!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[Topcat]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Case in point:
> You know that he will never go off @ 12/1. On
> Saturday when 40,000 wander aimlessly drunk
> through the back yard and the idiot that will bet
> his pay check on Frosted in the Whitney because he
> ran a 122 Beyer in the Met Mile guess what?
> ALL their money goes into the same pool as yours
> and mine does. What a beautiful thing
>
> One of the great things about the information age
> is getting DRF past performances 72 hours out and
> there is no ML posted for the early data or on TG
> figures either!
>
> My biggest concern lies in the computer teams not
> being able to reach into the horizontals past
> their pre race data, will pays and probables. When
> they do and those payoffs start being cannibalized
> I\'ll be out of the game!
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.


Amen.

[CA12891289]

I don\'t see the horse as a huge player in the race. I really don\'t think a couple of good efforts for Mike Yates in Hallandale 16 months ago mean this horse is an auto contender in this field . In fact, the horse, off those GP efforts, showed up for low-tier trainer 5 months later and ran poorly before another long layoff off the Servis claim. If this horse was trained by Ubillo and ridden by Trujillo tomorrow, the horse would probably be 25-1. As it is, I think 12-1 is a pretty good ML.

Secondly, why do bad morning lines negatively impact your horizontal wagers? Let\'s say this line was off and this Servis horse is more like 3-1 on a real morning line. You have that information and not everyone else does. Doesn\'t that benefit you in pick 3, pick 4 etc? I\'m confused?

[jimbo66]

CA12891289,

Interesting handle....

Let\'s agree to disagree on the 12 horse (for now),  I am as SURE AS I CAN BE that he won\'t be 12-1.  The 67 beyer figures in Maiden special and Maiden 75 are top Beyer figures in the race and this is a maiden 25k.  Jason Servis is hot and Irad is running away with the meet.  It doesn\'t take a rocket scientist to see that this horse will take money.

do I think he is the most likely winner?  No, at best 3rd most likely winner behind the 4 and 10.  But he will take money.  And having him a longer ML than the 7 and the same ML as the 5 and 8 is just doing a POOR job.

As for the impact on horizontal wagers, it will impact them.  I didn\'t say it had to impact mine personally, or yours, for that matter.  Yes, a smart player, who thinks they see something wrong, in theory can take advantage of it in a multi-race bet.  But that is NOT WHAT THE MORNING LINE MAKER is supposed to be doing.  How about he/she does his job right and let the chips fall as they may.

He has ANOTHER egregious mistake today in the 6th.  No way the 12 horse, Honorable Daniel, coming out of 40k N/W2 claimers, goes off a shorter price than the 8, Ross J Dawg, coming out of starter allowance races .

Jim

[Bet Twice]

Who knew Travis Stone read this board?

[SoCalMan2]

CA12891289 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t see the horse as a huge player in the
> race. I really don\'t think a couple of good
> efforts for Mike Yates in Hallandale 16 months ago
> mean this horse is an auto contender in this field
> . In fact, the horse, off those GP efforts, showed
> up for low-tier trainer 5 months later and ran
> poorly before another long layoff off the Servis
> claim. If this horse was trained by Ubillo and
> ridden by Trujillo tomorrow, the horse would
> probably be 25-1. As it is, I think 12-1 is a
> pretty good ML.
>
> Secondly, why do bad morning lines negatively
> impact your horizontal wagers? Let\'s say this line
> was off and this Servis horse is more like 3-1 on
> a real morning line. You have that information and
> not everyone else does. Doesn\'t that benefit you
> in pick 3, pick 4 etc? I\'m confused?

If the line is bad, then you need to do extra handicapping to get that information.  For example, you go through the race to determine each horse\'s chances.  Then you need to do the race again and not take into consideration the horses\' chances but rather handicap the public audience and what they are going to think and do.  For each race, you have to handicap two races -- one is the race on the track, the other is the public opinion.

I agree that a bad line gives an advantage to people who work harder and do the second job. For an astute handicapper, a bad line is a good thing.  However, that handicapper has to do a ton more work than normal. Guys like me have limited time for handicapping, if I have to do more handicapping per race, it means i will handicap less races.

[johnnym]

I have enough issues just picking a winner...

[SoCalMan2]

johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have enough issues just picking a winner...


Picking a winner is way tougher than either handicapping the race and assessing probabilities or trying to figure out what the crowd is going to do.  If your plan is to pick winners, then the ML is irrelevant and you have already saddled yourself with a tougher job than any of the things I am talking about.  Also, you need to be prepared for a lot more variance.

[jimbo66]

Horse in last race 12-1 ML, goes off 9-5.

5/2 favorite in 5th race goes off 4th choice.

AWFUL work.

[SoCalMan2]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Horse in last race 12-1 ML, goes off 9-5.
>
> 5/2 favorite in 5th race goes off 4th choice.
>
> AWFUL work.

8-5 now,,,,,,and shorter in the horizontals since all the scratch money will be going on that horse now.

[Fairmount1]

Travis Stone making an auctioneering school in St. Louis proud apparently!

I won\'t make any assertions beyond the Fact that I wonder if some of you were at the top of your game when you did something for the first time for your job or at age 31?  (EDIT:  Upon re-reading I want to clarify I mean that he still has much to improve upon and understandably so at his age).  

Two links here---one an article on Travis Stone and his linemaking at Saratoga.  Second a link to his Twitter account which includes a self-deprecating tweet about today\'s \"performance.\"  

Be sure to watch the call of the Pharaoah Derby on there.  At race calling, he is precise, accurate and right on the money in that race.  Give it a watch and a listen.  He missed one today and others this meet but his line making will improve in time.    

http://www.dailygazette.com/news/2016/aug/03/0803_maccolumn/?dgzrg

https://twitter.com/TravisStone