race 7 delmar

[touchgold]

HOW UNUSUAL last 2 are fast. A pair up looks good in here..12-1 ML, makes her the key..will use with barleysugar/nine point nine/frulian....cheekaboo giving weight should react.

[bellsbendboy]

Listed \'Cap for sophomore ladies going nine panels, green, always a difficult handicapping endeavor; especially with a grade two, at a mile for same, 200K, next Saturday.

On paper, pace appears genuine if a bit class challenged and the trip will work against them off the hedge.

Your choice HOW UNUSUAL gets a favorable weight shift from favored CHEEKABOO with both coming out of the Grade Two Honeymoon in Arcadia last month. While her ground loss loaded figure is attractive, she did not do any running. The last three eights in a slow 37 seconds and she made zero impact at some 35-1.

For me, this is a difficult heat and will play a pair in the late four.  RIRI need only be fit to take these down.  Off since November and while nominated to the San Clemente, clever conditioner chooses this spot.  Works are more than acceptable, nine furlongs not so much.  WELL CAUGHT was 7-5 going short, green, and fell on her face at the break losing all chance.  Previous trainer quoted after maiden score as she would max out at seven furlongs, yet Simon runs her nine!  Also nominated to G2 next week, at the mile, getting more weight clearly conditioner rolling the dice.

Maiden next is loaded and may add another colt or three but convinced Law Abiding Citizen will be a stakes winner before long and will single on the big ticket.

Eddie Read depends on the pace (as all two turn heats) but expect/hope Victor will not let Raffie walk the dog.  Any of FLAMBOYANT\'s last four wins this IF the pace is legit.  Both Peter\'s and Paulo\'s horses are players.

Last a crapshoot, after all a barn single in the last leg of a juicy pick six often significantly trumps purse money this meet and few as aggressive this spot as RBH jr.  Puts his boy up and blows out like a stake horse while cutting back.  Puype\'s 5yo looks awful on paper but merits respect on his layoff and subsequent works, BK thinks he will win and his #\'s crush these and Spawr and TB3 are possible.  Tough sequence.  bbb

[jp702006]

I have a similar ticket, but I\'m singled to the 8 in the 8th race. Good luck bbb!

[Tavasco]

I\'m hoping 1st time Lasix helps Mrs. Morris get into the vertical.

[jp702006]

I used her on the bottom of my tri\'s just for that reason. Oh well, now I just need to get by midnight storm and finnegans wake in my horizontal.

[jimbo66]

BBB,

Perhaps best you stick to pompous, post race remarks.  Pretty sophomoric performance.   Not the results, that happens to all of us who play this game, but I read your post twice and not sure I saw a single handicapping tenet in it.

Riri need only be fit to win.  Why?

Convinced Law Abiding Citizen will be a stakes winner.  Why?

Straddled fence in last two legs without saying anything.

Hard to believe you couldn\'t nail any races in the sequence with your advanced knowledge about trainer and owner intent.  

Good luck.  (you will need it)

Jim

[jimbo66]

In the category of \"piling on\", now that I have the benefit of looking at the red board room for the races in question.

BBB,

What exactly about Riri made him such that he need only be fit to win?  5 others were faster at their best and 1 the same.  The comment makes even less sense with the data.

Any of Flamboyant\'s last 4 should win here?  what?  Based on what?  Ashley Loves Sugar as fast and gets 2 lbs.  Si Sage\'s last was faster.  Midnight Storm\'s last was MUCH faster and also figured a 1w/1w trip.  Bolo\'s two back and three back were as fast or faster.  

You were much better off not posting beforehand.  In the BEST CASE scenario, you are a guy that doesn\'t even use Thorograph, but posts here occasionally with assertions and seemingly relevant statements (that don\'t hold up under any scrutiny).  In the worst case, you can\'t read a sheet.  (very hard to come up with your conclusions looking at the TG numbers for the day)

On a bright note.  Saratoga 4 days away.

who has duties opening weekend, TGAB or TGJB?

Jim

[ruthlessman]

Very hard to agree with stewards here. I had the 1 so I\'m a bit tilted here. That being said, she has to come down. No way around it.
It has really become a complete mystery as to which way these guys will rule. Every instance is a toss up. Get rid of them and whoever crosses the wire first is the winner. At least then I would not feel like I was robbed by 3 blind mice.

[TGJB]

Looks like Alan. I\'m doing weekends 3,5,7, so this would be easier for me than the second one, but I committed to playing the Dmr contest. Tough to play a real money contest with all that goes on up there.

[TGJB]

Again, this goes to the ridiculous way the rule is written (in some jurisdictions at least), and interpreted. It says they have to determine that it DID affect the outcome, as opposed to could have. By that definition there is no such thing as a foul early in the race, even if you drop a 1/5 shot-- who is to say he would have hit the board?

I had no dog in the fight, but in any sane universe that filly comes down.

[bellsbendboy]

Thanks for the comments Jim,

I play the late four from Cali most every Sunday w/out regard to conviction and this sequence my level of confidence was moderate at best. Delmar, in my opinion is the best meet in the world and there is no shortage of data available.

Riri, a filly, coldcocked maidens, then one x foes by open lengths, a rarity in turf races before contesting a dozen salty fillies in the Grade 3.  There, she was bet to favoritism, broke sharp, came back to the boy and when she tried to split horses she got stepped on and went to the shelf.  In a very weak 21st rendition of this handicap writing that if she was fit she should win was hardly a bad prerace opinion.

My mistake, an egregious one at that, was in not playing the winner, but in two separate interviews Eddie said she would need one and her lackluster blowout did little to invite inclusion.  With that written her last was very very good, the best race on the page arguably better than Cheekaboo\'s graded score.

You asked why I think the 2yo will be a stakes winner.  I like his breeding and his exceptionally long stride.  Mikey has been on him in the mornings and his works show big time talent.  No discredit to the two who beat him.  The winner lowers a fifty year track record and the runner up has been widely touted as a total freak.

As for the Eddie Read, it was clear that Raffie would put the horse on the lead, yet not clear how fast he would have to go and pointed that out. True I am not a performance figure player, but you are foolish assuming that I do not understand their significance, especially in two turn turf heats.  My belief, acquired after some fifty years as a profitable player is that these races are better handicapped using class, trip, configuration and pace as opposed to boiling them down to an integer.

Good to have you back posting, wish Miff would resurface, thanks for the good wishes.  bbb

[speedneed]

Im glad they pay 2nd this weekend. Lol  GL   Side bets anyone? Are they common in live HR tournaments(2nd live HR tournament) like they are in poker?

[TGJB]

I haven\'t won one of these for quite a while, though I only play 2-3 a year. Christian and McFarland have to be the favorites, especially at their home track, but in a 140 horse field nobody is less than 15-1.

[Edgorman]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I haven\'t won one of these for quite a while,
> though I only play 2-3 a year. Christian and
> McFarland have to be the favorites, especially at
> their home track, but in a 140 horse field nobody
> is less than 15-1.


Table position and weight of entrant very important factors.

[TGJB]

My table will be 3,000 miles away.