Preakness Day Inside Turf Runners

[Molesap]

Here is a list of horses that spent a significant amount of time on or near the rail while running on the turf on Preakness Saturday. This was not the place to be that day, so take a closer look at these when they run back. I watched each turf race a couple of times noting if they spent a considerable amount of time on the straights as this is not indicated in the TG data so you will see a few horses that may have only been on the rail for one turn, but spent much of their time in other parts of the race near the rail as well. The wide designations after each horse are from the TG Figure data on Preakness Day. The \"worst of it\" designation indicates which horse seemed to spend the most time right on the fence.

Pim 2
Cherub – 1w1w (worst of it)
Private Client – 2w1w
Lady Arielle's Key – 1w1w

Pim 4
Vicky Ticky Tavie – 1w1w (worst of it)
Rachel Wall – 1w1w
Evidently – 1w1w

Pim 6
Copingaway – 1w1w (worst of it)
He'll Pay – 1w2w
Ousby – 1w1w
Isofass – 2w1w

Pim 8
Hope Cross – 1w (worst of it)
Seeking Paradise – 1w
Everything Lovely – 1w
My Celeste – 1w

Pim 10
Monster Sleeping – 1w2w (worst of it)
Ol' Fashion Girl – 1w1w
Tiger Ride – 1w2w
Josdesanimaux – 1w1w

Pim 12
Captain Dixie – 1w1w (worst of it)
Conquest Typhoon – 3w1w
Za Approval – 1w2w

[kevb]

True to form, the connections of Copingaway don\'t wait long to fire another shot. Copingaway entered 5/28 in the 4th at Gulfstream. 1 1/2 miles on the turf $75k stakes. If he goes, this will be his 8th race in about 62 days.

[jbelfior]

Conquest Typhoon appeared to have been shot out of a cannon on the turn (3-4  path),then appeared to have been shot in the lane (1 path).


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

Agreed! I bet him. After flopping off the winner....

[jbelfior]

Huge exacta box CT with the winner. Nothing changes. They\'re still out of pizza at Pizza Hut when I go.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[heatherk]

Copingaway 54.00 was part of the Pimlico dead rail issue that blew up the last three pk3\'s @ the Spa Friday. Tgraph 7 and 25/1 made her useable. Bris numbers had her on top with Chiltern Street TG 5. Result 2k and 3.5k p3.

[Focus959]

Is that a bet back angle if he had five straight losses after the Preakness card? Looks like he was just rounding into condition. Although I will say that Mejia didn\'t exactly spot him correctly after the Pimlico race.

[Molesap]

I am embarrassed to admit that I do not know who said this earlier, but someone made the point about horses needing much more time after being on a dead turf rail to recover, so perhaps you need to stay with those horses for more than just their immediate return. Most from that list returned within five weeks and most did not run very well, but a couple did better in subsequent starts. I know Private Client flopped at odds on in his first race back, but then won at Saratoga I am pretty sure next out. I do not think our small sample from Preakness Day will tell us anything one way or another, but at least the results seem to be consistent with the idea that horses coming off dead turf rails need much more time than normal to recover.

[Molesap]

What you do not think running in 1 1/2 mile turf stakes one week after running on a dead turf rail followed up by running in a G2 6f dirt race a month later with an intervening dirt route in between is an example of where the trainer did \"not exactly spot him correctly?\" Perhaps you have a point. The trainer, Jaime Mejia was 3/161 in 2016 going into that race. One might argue that at least some of that lack of success was from improperly spotting his horses. In some regards, Copingaway is a cool horse. Is he some throwback to a bygone era - he is now 17-2-3-4 on the year (and raced in the Florida Derby and other stakes) or is the trend to race horses much less something that is dictated by overall diminished \"hardiness\" of the breed?