Post Mortem

[ringato3]

11 pm after exaggerator hangs the first L on Nyquist and not a lot on the board regarding the race.   Perhaps all of us are \"decompressing\" after a few days of heavy gambling.

One persons thoughts on the race:

1.  Considering track condition and the amount of speed that seemed to be in the race, far from a surprising result.  

2.  As a guy who bet  exaggerator in both the derby and preakness and has been anti-Nyquist for a long time, I have to say Nyquist ran pretty well, considering the pace of the race.  

3.   Speaking of pace, a pretty dumb ride by Mario Gutierrez.   Jockey critiquing happens every single race, every single day, but it see,s deserved here.   Nyquist left hard, so as not to get trapped down inside, a good move, but once the 4 backed off out of the first turn, did Mario really have to go after uncle Lino at the 22 quarter?  He was more afraid of uncle Lino getting away than he was of confirmed quality closer, top challenger and possible mud lover, exaggerator.   Yikes.   Awful ride IMO.   Hard to say what happens if he rates a bit, but Nyquist wasn\'t packing it in until late.certainly would have been closer.

4.  Kent D. Gave the winner a helluva ride.   He won by 3 and was never in doubt late, but if it had been closer, the ground he saved and the inside out move would have been crucial

5.  I still don\'t have a handle on exaggerator.   Hard to say that about a horse I bet in both legs of the triple crown so far, but in the derby I had to use him what appeared to me to be the \"perfect\" derby sheet, and in the preakness he figured to benefit from the pace and surface, while running very well in defeat in the derby.   I say tough to have a handle because the detractors will point to another wet track and fast pace, like the santa Anita derby.   But this horse fires hard every time.

6.  Stradivari ran ok with a wide trip.   Suspect his TG figure may overstate his performance, but he ran at least ok.   Could/should be heard from later in the year.

7.  Haven\'t ready any comments from the connections yet, but am guessing we may not see either Nyquist or exaggerator In the belmont.  But we will see.

Rob

[Bet Twice]

Regarding Exaggerator, Keith D. Told the Nbc reporter immediately after the race that they were going.  A bit surprising given he hadn\'t even checked on the horse yet but sounds like the intention is there.

[TempletonPeck]

Yeah I\'d be pretty shocked if Exaggerator doesn\'t, and if Nyquist does.

Actually, I\'d take... I don\'t know, +200? I would bet that Nyquist never races again?

[joemama]

Just saw a clip of O\'Neill on TV saying if all is ok with the horse it\'s on to NY for Nyquist. That interview was taken immediately aft the race.

[miff]

Exaggerator with a Beyer 101 and a TF in same area, both like TG 1/4.Race featured fastest first quarter in history of Preakness and an off the charts early pace figure.Pace adjusted figures have EXag and Nyquist even at wire.Exaggerator one of very few that ran inside yesterday and did well but heavy rain preceding Preakness could have changed surface.

Both EXAG and NYQ reportedly heading for Belmont, assuming they are ok after a few days.

Pea brained rides by jocks on 2,3,4 horses set up pretty easy win for Exaggerator, Nyquist uber game try.

[Silver Charm]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 11 pm after exaggerator hangs the first L on
> Nyquist and not a lot on the board regarding the
> race.   Perhaps all of us are \"decompressing\"
> after a few days of heavy gambling.
>
> One persons thoughts on the race:
>
> 1.  Considering track condition and the amount of
> speed that seemed to be in the race, far from a
> surprising result.  
>
> 2.  As a guy who bet  exaggerator in both the
> derby and preakness and has been anti-Nyquist for
> a long time, I have to say Nyquist ran pretty
> well, considering the pace of the race.  
>
> 3.   Speaking of pace, a pretty dumb ride by Mario
> Gutierrez.   Jockey critiquing happens every
> single race, every single day, but it see,s
> deserved here.   Nyquist left hard, so as not to
> get trapped down inside, a good move, but once the
> 4 backed off out of the first turn, did Mario
> really have to go after uncle Lino at the 22
> quarter?  He was more afraid of uncle Lino getting
> away than he was of confirmed quality closer, top
> challenger and possible mud lover, exaggerator.  
> Yikes.   Awful ride IMO.   Hard to say what
> happens if he rates a bit, but Nyquist wasn\'t
> packing it in until late.certainly would have been
> closer.
>
> 4.  Kent D. Gave the winner a helluva ride.   He
> won by 3 and was never in doubt late, but if it
> had been closer, the ground he saved and the
> inside out move would have been crucial
>
> 5.  I still don\'t have a handle on exaggerator.  
> Hard to say that about a horse I bet in both legs
> of the triple crown so far, but in the derby I had
> to use him what appeared to me to be the \"perfect\"
> derby sheet, and in the preakness he figured to
> benefit from the pace and surface, while running
> very well in defeat in the derby.   I say tough to
> have a handle because the detractors will point to
> another wet track and fast pace, like the santa
> Anita derby.   But this horse fires hard every
> time.
>
> 6.  Stradivari ran ok with a wide trip.  

The pace in the Derby was fast and Mario had Nyquist right there in it. They were too confident with what they had. The move Exaggerator made on the backstretch was fully expected by me. This horse knows how to run on the rail. Go back and look at his Saratoga Special race and 2 Juvenile races at Kee. Kent D gave him too much work to do in the Derby stretch or he might have won.

The questions now are how much did Nyquist back up? 2 Points? And how much was from pace fatigue? It didn\'t bother him in the Derby until the last 100 yards. The best horse won yesterday. The Derby will probably be the last time Nyquist ever beats Exagerrator at a Mile and 1/4. And there are others out there poised to begin catching up with Nyquist. Perhaps he should run back on Belmont Day. But in the Met Mile....

Regarding Strativari where was Mohaymen yesterday? He could have done some damage. People are afraid to take a chance these days. Exaggerator moves on and now he becomes the target. Brodys Cause and others will be waiting. It will be another excellent wagering day!!

[jbelfior]

With both of them the issue will not be about pace, pedigree, numbers, or track condition---it will be about what is left in the tank.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[ringato3]

Silver,

I don\'t think the paces in the derby and preakness were comparable, at all.

My first view on the derby pace was that it was way above par and I gave Nyquist credit for attending it and still having plenty left in the tank.  Saw figures from 3 pace figure makers and it was just above average.   Not super fast, which I found surprising.  But then I saw the mike smith interview after the derby and he said that it wasn\'t the pace that best Danzig candy, he just didn\'t run well.   Smith said 45 and change on that track was really 46 and change. Then andy Beyer said that the track variant for derby day was easily the fastest in the last 20 years for a derby and he also concluded the pace was just above average.

Yesterday though, the pace was brutal, contested and draining.  It wasn\'t just s fast first quarter like AP ran in the slop last year, it was fast and more importantly keenly contested through 3 quarters with jockeys pushing their horses throughout (almos foolishly IMO)

If both these horses run back, it would SEEM that Nyquist had more of a gut wrenched yesterda.   But we will see.

I normally hate trainer speak.   But I found it interesting that Keith desormeaux gave his horse little chance to beat Nyquist the last 3 times they met, multiple times saying that Nyquist would have to stub his toe.  But before yesterday he was extremely confident, based on the fact that his horse recovers quickly from big efforts in his opinion and he felt that was an equalizer.  Now, who knows if he is right, and I don\'t think it is why he won yesterday, but it could come into play in 3 weeks, if he is right.   (Or it could be useless trainer speak - my favorite is Kiaran McLaughlin, as nothing is a worse kiss of death thsn. Kiarsn feeling good about his horse. I know people that speak to him regularly and for years I lost a small fortune on horses he \"felt good about\".  And watched many of his horses that he never talked about win at bigger odds.....   Trainer speak...  Sort of like political promises...

 

Rob

[Silver Charm]

About 8 years ago I was the guest of another Trainer who Karian used to work for and it was Donn Day. We got in the elevator and Karian lastly stepped in and leaned into the corner. He had the 3-5 Fav in the Donn and boldly said \"speed favoring inside strip today, gotta feel gold about my chances later on.\"

The horse looked limp legged every step of the way. I don\'t think he hit the board.

Nyquist has been confidently ridden in every race. Went 5 wide in the Juvenile and 3 wide in Derby. We don\'t know if he could sit a pocket trip like Exag did yesterday on the far turn. He is a nice horse but I\'m telling you there are others out there about to begin catching up with him. If you got him in the Derby at 2-1 in a 20 horse field then more power to you. As the host here said it\'s a game of percentages.

[TGJB]

I\'m going to be interested in seeing the wind info. First quarter is basically a straightaway at that distance, half time much less crazy.

Lani got beat 1 1/2 for second. Ouch.

[FrankD.]

JB,

Wind picked up with the heavier rain in the 30 minutes prior to the Preakness. Not the gloom and doom predicted but it was all around the Baltimore area.

I think when you do the day you will find the tale of 3 race tracks on the dirt.
Race 1- Sloppy
Race 3-11 Muddy with standing water at the rail in the 1 path and probably a new designation QSX- Quick sand rail -If anyone saw the NBC coverage with Donna Brothers sinking several inches from the 2 and 3 paths when she stepped down there.
Voluntario may get the biggest X ever on a sheet!
Then changing again for the Preakness after the heavy rain preceding the race.

[BitPlayer]

Someone on TVG noted that the first quarter split for the Preakness was faster than the first quarter splits for the 6f races on the undercard.  Is there a big difference in run-ups?

[TGJB]

Which way was the wind blowing?

Not sure about the rail on dirt, but it looked look a rare dead grass rail Tiger Ride etc.). Jocks looked to be trying to stay away by the Dixie.

[Leamas57]

Yes, Jerry.

He and Cherry were even before they turned for home. Lanerie took the inside track and Lani went outside. Lani was flying late--looking to be gaining even faster than Cherry.

My temptation is to call Lani the Belmont winner right now but Bushido/Samurai code forbid such displays of arrogance and pride.

Leamas

[FrankD.]

No clue on direction pertaining to the track, was only there once in 78. Front came in from South East if that helps out?