SMARTY WILL LOSE THE BELMONT

[Bham41]

Freak??? Braindead, maybe after all he almost lost it early on.  Who can say what effect that had on his success it certainly hasn\'t hurt him any.  The Lasix like the whip could have hit a nerve in addition to its normal expected effect.  


I won\'t leave him out thats for sure.



Post Edited (05-17-04 19:15)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

He will certainly be odds on. But, he has never lost and has never been challenged. The Southwest was his only challenge per se, (right at the wire), and he would not let those horses go by. His late pace will be best out of the Preakness is my guess. (Check Eddington).

I was high on Funny last year though, so take my opinion with a grain of salt. Also remember pre Preakness Tagg was dressing and he told Smullen \"Hes gonna F-----g destroy those horses\" and that he won by 9 lengths. I\'m becoming more and more suspicious that Funny has limitations and that Tagg is managing him carefully.

Regarding Tapit, he couldn\'t get within 15 lengths of Smarty at 12 marks. That might get second though.



Post Edited (05-17-04 21:22)

[twoshoes]

I think you\'ve hit on how Smarty can get beat in the Belmont. You\'re right, it\'s all about pedigree. Stevens should glue Rock Hard Ten right to Smarty\'s flank and scream ELUSIVE QUALITY and SMILE at him when they hit the far turn. Of course if recent history is any judge he better carry a bullhorn or a cell phone for the last 1/4 mile. Can you hear me now??? Value is in the eye of the beholder and with racing luck in the bankroll at the end of the day. Value Saturday wasn\'t Smarty or evn Mr. O\'Brien (great call Jerry), but in throwing out Preachinatthebar and turning a $150 pick 3 into a $1500 pick 4 through two chalks. There will be value somewhere in the Belmont, but for me it won\'t be Rock Hard Ten at 7-1 based on pedigree. Woody Stephens said once that they\'ll all get a mile and a half - some just get it faster than others. Smarty\'s never done anything slow. I\'m not saying he\'ll win but he\'ll be on my tickets. I just have to find a way to make that pay something.
Best of Luck.



Post Edited (05-18-04 08:50)

[jimbo66]

MO,

I doubt he will be 1 to 9 and unless things change, it won\'t be a 7 horse field.  Right now, 12 horses are looking at the Belmont, which is unusual because Smarty has looked so good.  My guess is that since nobody looks that good behind him, many think they have a great shot at 2nd money.  I bet the only exacta paying $10 will be RHT, the rest will pay more, because NONE of the others look any good and they all look about the same.  A number of exactas will be in the 20 to 40 range, you just have to figure out which of the slow horses can get 2nd.  Also, with 12 to 14 horses running, I think you will get 2 to 5 or 1 to 2, which I wouldn\'t bet, but some people will think that is VALUE on a horse that looks this good.

[MO]

Jimbo,

I heard today the same story, that Zito was gonna send 4 and there would be a big field.

Sounds like a Kentucky conspiracy to me.Get as many garbage cans in there as possible to cause all kinds of traffic problems and hopefully force Smarty to draw the 12 hole. LOL

If there were a field of 20, I wouldn\'t bet a dime on the race for reasons stated earlier. I hope he wins it though!

[MO]

Mall,

What do you mean by \"spotty, or no cell coverage\". Forgive my ignorance please.

MO

[MO]

Classhandicapper,

Silver Charm and Real Quiet both got horrible rides in the Belmont which cost both horses the triple crown.

I bet Silver Charm and hated Real Quiet, just for the record.

MO

[Mall]

MO: At certain times, it was next to impossible to make/receive cell phone calls and/or the ones you did get through on would go dead in the middle of a sentence. I know, I know, that\'s the way they always work, but this was worse by a factor of ten. For example, I couldn\'t once get through to my son, & he was in the infield.

[MO]

Mall,

Thanks. I\'m cellphone illiterate as I refuse to own one. But your point comes thru load and clear as I know about the self service machines you speak of. Interesting thought about the ROI. Hmmmmmmmmmmm.........

Nah, still gonna pass. Besides, the bugler there will try to jinx the horse by betting $1 to win like he has been doing for the past 10 years. LOL