Nyquist - please win the Preakness

[Silver Charm]

Charismatic ran well in all 3. Smarty Jones and Aleet Alex also did. Funny Cide kinda sorta! Victory Gallop also counts doesn\'t he?

Look it\'s a tough road to go down. A few of those I.mentiomwd above never ran a again after the Belmont. Syndication, injury etc!

A friend of mine who used to be a jockey agent had talked with Bill Mott on Friday nite and Mott had stated nobody was training better than Nyquist. I didn\'t get him because he was 2-1 in a 20 horse field. This horse won the Juvenile and the Derby. That\'s a rare feat. Next Saturday is another set of circumstances. We will see...

[vagrant]

Only three Derby winners have X\'d since 1993 -- Orb, Barbaro and Monarchos.

[T Severini]

He\'s a good horse in capable hands. Not many have Baffert\'s knack or mojo, but O\'Neil was knocking right there before.

Now, I\'m not gonna bet him at 3-5, that just won\'t stand and there is some speed in this next race.

American Pharaoh was susceptible to speed. If you\'re gonna beat a tactically placed horse you have to make him run early. They gifted Pharaoh the Belmont and Breeders Cup. If someone doesn\'t make him run Nyquist figures to win this too.

[Silver Charm]

A 2-1 in a 20 horse field might be even money in a 10 horse field. Or 4/5 to 6/5 depending on who he was running against. And I don\'t bet even money shots anymore. May single in the Pick 4 or something, try and beat the horse or pass the race. But it was the Derby so I\'m not gonna pass after evaluating the landscape for months. I was more upset about losing the Woodford Reserve by a head at 11-1 to a horse I had bet the race before than losing on Brodys Cause at 24-1. I was over it all in 10 minutes. There was about 10 horses who ran who I was dead right on by tossing. I had a hot date she had the $30 Exacta and thought she won a Million. Sometimes you win when you lose...

[Chas04]

Whats another set of circumstances? The horses he\'s going to run against next Saturday are not fast. Slow animals. He\'s a fast animal. Simple to me.

[miff]

Simple if he runs back as fast, that\'s far from a certainty.

[Chas04]

He doesn\'t have to run as fast...thats the point. He can regress and still win. They posted all the Raggie numbers and he got a 3. Thats faster then AP. I certainly don\'t think he is the Pharoah either...but that is a serious fig. He can regress in the Preakness and still win. If he completely falls apart of course anyone could win...but I don\'t see it. He jogged 2 miles today and looked incredible everyone is saying.

[miff]

If I had a dollar for every horse that looked incredible after a big effort that bounced,I\'d be rich. The toll of a previous effort more often presents under stress during the next race, not while galloping 2minute licks.

Nyquist a very nice horse but has not yet established resiliency which gets tested Sat, his first race within two weeks of his previous.

Exaggerator also reportedly thriving out of derby.

[Silver Charm]

If he goes off at .05 in the dollar with another horse 8n the race equally as fast as he is I will play a gins him. Maybe it\'s a golden speed biased Pimlico rail and he drew outside. Maybe he draws the 1 hole and the rail is dead. Maybe it\'s another flood. Maybe he wakes up with a pin in his hoof. It\'s a week out. We will see

[Chas04]

Valid points.

I WANT to beat him....and if I think it can happen I will bet accordingly.

Right now I just don\'t see it. Still a week to go tho.

[Chas04]

This again kinda goes back to original point. I have a friend who boxed the whole field in 2006. We all laughed at him before the race and told him it was a dumb idea. Anything can happen in a horse race....stepping on a pin, etc like u said as well. These are rare occurrences though and I don\'t like to bet on rare occurrences. If a race is run fairly who will win and why. Thats how I like to approach it.

[TGJB]

Just to be clear, the man said Jake had Nyquist\'s Derby faster than AP\'s.

[ringato3]

Great point.

Reading this board after a horse wins the derby with all the \"wait till the Belmont\" stuff reminds me of the old NY Post articles on Monday after football season by Steve Serby - entitled \"loser\'s lament\".

Don\'t get me wrong, I unloaded both barrels against Nyquist but I (and many on this board, were just plain wrong).  I don\'t get TGJB\'s post \"an X is coming, maybe not the next time but it is coming\".  This can be said about every horse who ever ran.  They aren\'t machines.  Of course an \"X\" is coming.  But who knows when.  Just like the Martingale system.  Keep doubling your bet, the coin can\'t keep coming up heads.

I don\'t know, let\'s take an objective look at Doug O\'Niell (I don\'t like him, but lets be objective here).  He had I\'ll Have Another run a big number in February, often the kind that put a horse over the top (see Pletcher) and then got the horse to run big in the Derby and the Preakness, running down an extremely game Bodemeister, trained by \"Mr Triple Crown\" - Bob Baffert.  Sure he got hurt before the Belmont, but the guy was 2 for 2 with 2 huge races by any reasonable measure.

Then we get an early developer in Nyquist, who seemingly didn\'t get better at 3.  He ships cross country to Florida to take on Mohaymen in his own back yard, a move many here and elsewhere said was the wrong move, chasing bonus dollars instead of prepping for the Triple Crown.  He crushes Mohaymen.  Then the talk was that no horse had come into the Derby with less foundation (in furlongs of preps) than Nyquist and he was \"flatlining\" from a development perspective and a huge underlay at 2-1.  Well, he crushed the field.  Make no mistake, he crushed the field.  As somebody who was 5 deep against him to nice scores, I felt sick 100 yards into the race.  He looked a winner every step.

The horse has done everything right.  The trainer has been good in these spots.  (and while I think the Rags guys are clowns, in many respects, saying that Nyquists derby was as good as AP\'s is NOT the best example of that.  He ran fast, looked a winner every step and was never under duress.  AP, despite the ground loss loaded final figure, gutted out a win and at times looked like Firing Line would beat him).

All that doesn\'t mean that Nyquist can\'t be a play against at 3-5 next time, but I wouldn\'t be taking out second mortgages to do it....

Rob

[TGJB]

Smarty, Afleet Alex, and Funny Cide all ran at least 3 points off their tops in at least one TC race. VG was 18 years ago (gulp) and went back 2 in the second one. I\'ll have more in my Preakness comments, but it\'s been a long time since someone other than Baffert got 3 top efforts.

[TGJB]

Let me clarify. I mean soon, next two. And by an X, I mean a significant backward move, doesn\'t have to be more than 4 points off his top.

I sure hope you\'re not saying Nyquist ran better than AP because it looked like he won easier. And given what happened later, that \"ground loaded\" figure turned out to look pretty good.