MO/MOR/DC

[Gerard]

In trying to assess Km\'s line through the Fla. Derby statement. Went back 15yrs or so, looks like 3 horses hit the tri in that period off a backup of more than a couple points. Monarchos, Bluegrass Cat, and Denis of Cork. A few have won off a backup, but they won their final prep, hard to draw a line through that in most cases. As Mor\'s offs seem to have still beaten many of these, he\'s the one I\'d be willing to give the pass to.

[toppled]

What really complicates things this year is that all 3 have #s fast enough to either win or be major contenders in the Derby if you draw a line through their last race.  Who knows how much the track conditions compromised each of their chances.  

Of the 3, the one I can make the best case for is Mor Spirit (but for full disclosure, I\'m biased because I have a futures bet on him).  After his slow # in his sprint debut, where he ran 2nd, he ran his top in his 2nd race.  Then came within a 1/4 point of that top in the San Felipe.  After his 1st top he bounced 4.5 points. Or was it the sloppy track?  After his latest big #, he bounced 3.25 points. Or was it the wet track again?  His 2 worst numbers in routes are on wet tracks, yet he still ran 2nd each time.

Also, with futures in & an eye towards history, I did not want Mor Spirit to win the SA Derby.  None of Baffert\'s SA Derby winners won the Kentucky Derby, while 2 of his 4 Derby winners ran in the SA Derby but didn\'t win.  The dilemma is that neither Silver Charm nor Real Quiet bounced like Mor\'s SA Derby, but then track condition wasn\'t a factor in either case.  

Without knowing the Arkansas #s, only 3 horses are as fast or faster than MO, MOR, or DC.  One of these years I\'ll get burned, but to me Pletcher off a new top is a Derby throwout.  If he wins with either Destin or Outwork, he beats me.  with Pletcher\'s Derby history of horses coming in off significant new tops in their final prep, I\'m willing to toss them.  The only other horse who ran fast is Exaggerator, but his wet #s are always higher at the point of development in his career.  His 1st wet race was a 4.5 point new top, he then went back 5 points in his next fast track race, then paired his top in the Delta mud.  His 3yo campaign showed development with 2 races paired 1.25 points higher than his 2YO top, then ran his new top, an improvement of 1.75 points on the wet SA surface.  If it rains in Louisville, there\'s no way to not have him on all tickets, but I just think he\'s faster on a wet track & will play against him if the track is fast.

Clearly, if the reason for the slower #s on MO/MOR/DC were a dislike of the wet track, on the #s, any one of those 3 has a legitimate shot in the Derby-before analyzing, post or pace.

[Gerard]

Mohaymen, wide trip and bearing the brunt of an easterly wind on the backstretch still should have been able to mount a little more fight than he did, especially on a slow fig race. I think the stature question comes into play at a mile and a quarter and a 20 horse field. Good luck on the futures wager, I\'ll be hoping to get 10-1 on what is likely my key.

[jbelfior]

I watched Mor Spirit\'s workout yesterday. The only thing I will say is that was higher on him on Wednesday than I am on him today.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[bstaubs22]

Watched the work as well, jock whips him a few times right before the 1/4 pole like he might be lugging out. Tough to say for sure but just looks like a grinder to me. Tough to toss tough to key.

[Gerard]

Real Quiet and Silver Charm both ran second in each of their two prior races.

\"So I got that going for me....which is nice\"
CS

[johnnym]

LOL very good Dalai Lama

[Wrongly]

Looking back through the archives, it\'s very hard to make a case for those three.  I\'ll have Another was the only horse I could find that ran their top figure at 1 1/16 and hit the board in the Derby.  I did not include those that paired and granted I only looked back 10 years.  Maybe it\'s the backward move, maybe they were better at short distances, but there\'s usually a few like these every year that take money and finish up the track.
 
2015 - Bolo, Itsaknockout
2014 - General A Rod, Intenseholiday, Candy Boy
2013 - Itsmyluckyday, Java\'s War
2012 - Creative Cause, Hansen, Alpha
2011 - Santiva, Soldat, Stay Thirsty
2010 - Lookin at Lucky, Noble Promise, Conveyance, Backtalk
2009 - Chocolate Candy, Join in the Dance

You get the idea. It doesn\'t look good for Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, or DC!

[toppled]

I\'m glad I have the Mor Spirit bet in as insurance, but after a review of all the Derby data available up until now, I think the horse who is going to run huge and is sitting on an explosive pattern is Brody\'s Cause.  
 
Brody has run only 2 bad races in his career-his debut on turf & the Tampa Derby off a 4.5 month layoff.  As long as he\'s going into a race with a prior recent race he runs his race. Exaggerator will get a lot of $ and Brody has beaten him twice, including a race on a muddy track which is Exaggerator\'s strength. He\'s already won at CD & is stabled there and all his works will be at CD.  Of the main contenders, he\'s one of the best bred for 1 1/4.  

In a field where this longshot ran as fast in his last prep as the favorite and has a pattern I believe is indicative of a strong forward move and has already finished ahead of the probable 2nd choice twice, Brody screams value to me & he\'s got just as good a chance as any other horse in the race.  The fact that he needs the forward move I expect him to make will keep him under the radar unless he starts getting raves from the clockers.  

As of 4/24 my #1 Derby horse is Brody\'s Cause.

[boardedup]

What kind of a forward move are you projecting?

 He would need a second consecutive pretty decent jump to be on par with the faster one\'s, and assuming any one of a handful of those runs a new top he\'d likely have to match the 5 point move he made last time out.

He\'s interesting, but will have to be much faster than he\'s shown to date. (certainly not impossible though)

Are you more confident in him running a huge new top or more so expecting the others to run off or \"X\"?

[bstaubs22]

I feel the same way about Brody, look at his pattern as a 2yo. He moved forward in second start significantly and jumped forward again in third start. Just so happens he will be third off layoff going into the Derby and past history tells us that third off layoff has been a successful move with Derby winner, i.e. Mine That Bird, Animal Kingdom, Super Saver, American Pharoah, Big Brown, Street Sense and I\'ll Have Another to some extent. We\'re talking 7 of the last 9 winners have been third off the layoff, Brody\'s pattern says third off should be his best.

[miff]

Bluegrass was another pace melt with the first three finishers far back early on a track biased to closers. Would be careful taking anyone out of there given the way that race set up.

[bstaubs22]

Correct, only one I want is Brody. Big move past 8 horses in a blink of an eye with ears flopping back and forth waiting on command at the wire. Yes please, sign me up.

[toppled]

I\'m expecting a 2-3 point forward move.  I don\'t see his 5 point move from Tampa (which I consider a total toss race) to the Bluegrass as a jump up.  Rather, I see him returning to his 2yo top 2nd off a layoff and ready to move forward another 2-3 points.  

Brody is one of 5 horses who ran fast enough as a 2yo where a move to the 0 to 1 range it will take to win this year\'s Derby should be well within his wheelhouse.  Of the 5, only Brody, Nyquist & Exaggerator ran well in their final prep (the other 2 Mohaymen & Mor Spirit either off\'d or X\'d).  Brody ran the same # in the Bluegrass as Nyquist\'s Fla Derby & head to head has finished ahead of Exaggerator twice.

What makes Brody value is his Beyers are low enough to keep him off the radar of the just about all the casual fans who will only look at the DRF Basic PPs. His top Beyer is a 91.  More than half the field has run higher Beyers.  I\'ll take the 12-1 to 15-1 on Brody over Nyquist or Exaggerator every day.  I can always protect myself against them in exacta boxes.

[ajkreider]

How do you feel about MyManSam, then?  Got the same Bluegrass number as Brody, and was coming for that one at the wire.  Doesn\'t have the 2 year old foundation, but being lightly raced, more reason for development?