Mohaymen.. The Road Rarely Taken

[richiebee]

If all things go as planned, Kiaran Mclaughlin will lead Shadwell Stable\'s
Mohaymen to the paddock for the 2016 Kentucky Derby. If all things go as
planned, Mohaymen, who has already won the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth
Stakes at Gulfstream, will complete his final Derby prep in the Florida Derby.

Without going back too far in the past, which makes people nervous, let us look
at some horses who have run multiple prep races in Florida along the Derby
trail.

This is not a TG number driven discussion, but the numbers for a lot of the
runners which will be discussed are available in the TG archives, which is a
tremendous free resource at this time of year.

OK, I lied. No discussion of multiple Florida preps into the Derby can begin
without discussing Spectacular Bid\'s 1979 Derby year. Bid prepped
for the Derby by winning the Hutcheson, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.
Sensing Bid wasn\'t tight enough, Grover G.\"Buddy\" Delp sent Bid out for wins in
the Flamingo at Hialeah and the Blue Grass before taking the Derby and
Preakness. And lets all remember the Bid\'s young rider, Ronnie Franklin, who is
rumored to have stolen his first car before he ever sat on a horse.

Lets jump ahead to Monarchos, who broke his maiden and won an allowance
race at GP before winning the Florida Derby, the Wood Memorial, and the
Kentucky Derby. (2001)

Another colt who parlayed multiple Florida preps into Derby success was the ill
fated Barbaro (2006). Prior to his Derby win, Barbaro had prevailed in
the Tropical Park Derby at Calder, the Holy Bull, and the Florida Derby.

Big Brown (2008) was dominant in a GP allowance race and the Florida
Derby before winning two thirds of the Triple Crown.

The next success story would be Orb (2013). The Shug runner won a GP
allowance, the Fountain of Youth, and the Florida Derby on the way to winning
two thirds of the Triple crown.

Other runners with multiple Florida preps were less successful at Churchill,
and still others were not sound enough to make it to the Derby starting gate.

In 2002, Harlan\'s Holiday was second in the Fountain of Youth (FOY), won
the Florida Derby and the Blue Grass, was seventh as the favorite in the Derby.

Friend\'s Lake was a distant third in the 2003 Holy Bull (HB), won the
Florida Derby at a big mutuel, was 15th in that years Derby.

Pay attention, because in 2007 Scat Daddy was 3rd in the HB, won the FOY
and the Florida Derby, but finished 18th in Louisville in what proved to be his
last race after developing tendon problems. As best I can tell, and I am
begging correction here, no other recent 3YO has competed in the three GP preps
and gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby.

Onward. Also in 2007, Nobizlikeshowbiz beat Scat Daddy in the HB, was
3rd to Scat Daddy in the FOY, won the Wood, then split the field of 20 in the
Derby.

2009. Quality Road was second in a GP allowance race before winning the
FOY and the Florida Derby. Quarter cracks prevented QR from making a Derby run.
Also in 2009, Dunkirk broke his maiden and won an allowance at GP before
running second to QR in the Florida Derby, and then 11th in the Kentucky Derby.

Eskendereya won an allowance race at GP in 2010 before winning the FOY
and winning the Wood, his last career race.

KMac had Soldat at GP in 2011, where he won an off the turf allowance at
GP before winning the FOY, subsequently ran 5th in the Fla Derby and 11th in
the KY Derby.

In 2012, Take Charge Indy was second in a GP allowance to the highly
touted El Padrino. TCI then won the Florida Derby before having the best view
of the field in that years Kentucky Derby.

We mentioned Orb\'s preparations in Hallandale, but must also mention
Itsmyluckyday, who won the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Years Day, won
the HB, was second in Orb\'s Florida Derby before running 15th in Louisville.

One more. In 2014, Constitution broke his maiden at GP, beat eventual
NYRA superstar Tonalist in a GP allowance, won the Florida Derby but was not
physically able to perform in the Kentucky Derby.

What does it all mean?

1) My employer is a beneficient diety, paying me as they do, albeit at an
ungodly hour, to study horse racing.
 
2) Some very good runners have prepped extensively in South Florida and have
been fresh enough to prevail in Louisville.

3) Other Florida prepped runners have disappointed in Louisville, possibly
after racing multiple times over a demanding track which is arguably scraped on
big race days.

Is this science? Tough to call it that, too many variables, such as the fact
that the Holy Bull has been run at four different distances since 2000.
 

My opinion:

Still time for a KMac audible and to orchestrate the anticipated manufactured
bounce in Lexington instead of Hallandale.After winning the Holy Bull with
Closing Argument, KMac shipped CA to Lexington to prep for an eventual
second place finish in Giacamo\'s Derby.

I can not shake from my stored perceptions the one that makes me think that the
GP surface is demanding and takes its toll on young runners. If it is true that
Scat Daddy has been the only recent 3YO to do the three GP preps and compete in
the Derby, Mohaymen will be up against history, and that plus an anticipated
short price gives me cause to look elsewhere.

[johnnym]

Thanks Richee just and FYI Eskendereya did not win the FL Derby, it was Ice Box who should of won the Kentucky Derby that year.

[FrankD.]

Richie,

I don\'t believe the GP surface is as rock hard as it was for several years, the past 2 at least. A lot of horseman complained about it beating up their horses.

Although up front seems to be the optimum place to be for the most part I believe it\'s more condition book driven than racing surface. The plethora of 6250 claimers and maiden 12500 races have very few horses whom have ever passed another horse!

TAP seems to be quite a common denominator in your recent history lesson as well, enough said on DAT.

[richiebee]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie,
 
> Although up front seems to be the optimum place to
> be for the most part I believe it\'s more condition
> book driven than racing surface. The plethora of
> 6250 claimers and maiden 12500 races have very few
> horses whom have ever passed another horse!

Frank:
 
This was also a factor on Saturday\'s Inner Dirt Conveyor Belt, where the card
featured 2 maiden races filled with first starters, an open 12,500 claiming
race, and three conditioned claiming races.

No matter what the condition of the GP strip over the last two years, we all
know if they want a souped up autobahn for Fla Derby day, they can make it that
way.

[richiebee]

Thanks Johnny I corrected the post. Eskendereya won a GP allowance race, won the
FOY, then won the Wood and called it a career.He did not run in Ice Box\'s Fla
Derby. He stands stud in Japan now.

[FrankD.]

Richie,

No doubt track supers go to work on big race days, remember the 89 Belmont set up for Easy Goer? Last years Travers and the constant water truck parade etc... My point was the GP surface had a lot of complaints from horseman and they have softened the blow the past couple of years day to day.

As for Saturday\'s ULTRA EXTREME BIAS that is one for the record books!!! If you look back at mjellish and my posts no one was screaming bias until the 5th and 6th races. Watchmaker on DRF even had a during the card piece 3 races does not make a bias as the first 3 non competitive heats all went gate to wire.

That was a crazy track with snow the day before and it staying cold and windy it wouldn\'t surprise me if there was a frozen strip a couple of feet out? I\'ve never seen a rail/speed bias that extreme. If Irad doesn\'t sit the rail until the 1/8 pole there is no way Shagaf get\'s by Laoban.

[richiebee]

Frank:

All good horseplayers will look for runners who could not thrive on that surface.
Laoban\'s race was exceptional -- more on that later -- in that he fought off two
challenges and had to overcome a bad break. Also,confirmed deep closer Include
Betty was bumped at the start and made up an incredible amount of ground in the
Heavenly Prize while dead heating for third, will look for her back at Kee, Pim
or Bel.

I know there are people who follow track maintenance, but twice during the day
the harrows were being pulled in the opposite direction that the horses run --
I\'ve always wondered if this was an effort to erase a speed bias.

[miff]

Frank/Bee,

Two separate stories;

GP,as Frank said,trainers complained about the GP surface a couple of years back. It was as much an anti Pletcher complaint as it was about horses jarring up on a hard surface.The GP former highway not nearly as present though speed/up close runners still dominate,raw times slower overall.

NYRA tracks are completely politically maintained for some time.With Cuomo and his politically appointed stooges in overall control, horse safety is all important. Tracks are regularly back-raked,keep slow and fluffed.The breakdown issue almost sunk NYRA a few years back and the present crowd would never get the franchise if that persisted.

A dull/slower surface is more the norm at most NYRA tracks with only occasionally weather driven changes to faster/tighter.

[ajkreider]

There are other\'s you could have mentioned, like Dialed in - who did nothing on Derby day.  But Shackleford ran huge in the triple crown races. Tonalist and Wicked Strong ran behind Constitution in a GP allowance, and ran other races at GP, but they both made plenty of noise as sophomores.  TCI did nothing, but Union Rags ran well in spite of a bad ride, and of course won a classic.  Frosted seemed none the worse for the wear after a couple of grueling GP tries.  

Point is that some horse do well coming off the meet, and some don\'t.  I suspect that\'s true of all tracks, but the tracks with the higher profile horses justifiably receive more focus.

[Tavasco]

richiebee - thank for another interesting post.

I was thinking along these lines last week and did a little research into Florida preppers. In general, while there have been individual race stars, they have seemed a bad luck under performing bunch. Yet that may be a distortion of the press.

In the first quarter of each year Florida gets the racing spotlight with particular focus on the 3 y/o\'s. In our insatiable desire for racing information, intrigue and assessing the potential of a new crop, Florida is where most of the action (ink) is. Yes Florida racing is interesting especially without so very much competition from other locales. Praise the climate the oranges are beginning to blossom. Bottom line Florida horses get more ink (expectations) and earlier.

This year, if Mohaymen stays healthy, I think he will win the KD not necessarily because he has the best performance #, he most likely won\'t but because he is the product of one of the best organizations in thoroughbred racing. In spite of prepping in FL.

When will they ship to Kentucky is my curiosity.

[TGJB]

And the list would look different if you took out the Pletchers.

[johnnym]

Frenchy took all chances away from Dialed In and Union Rags in the Derby.

[richiebee]

AJ:

Dialed In and Shackleford are good additions and, like you say, fall somewhere
between Derby winners and Derby flops, and Wicked Strong and Tonalist both at
one point were pointed to the Derby and came back as 3YOs to have good success
at their favorite NYRA tracks. To Honor and Serve was third in both the 2011
FOY and Florida Derby, did not return to the races until August 1 of that year.

KMac a tremendous trainer who has been entrusted with blue blooded stock, but I
have wondered since he mapped the course for Mohaymen why he would enter the
three GP preps, and was curious to see if any runner had followed that path; as
best as I can tell, Scat Daddy is the only runner who did HB, FOY and Florida
Derby and then went on to Louisville.

On an ancillary issue, and before we see Nyquist in Hallandale, has the
California edge with regards to 2016 Derby runners carried over from the 2015
2YO events?

Cal shippers won two of the major stakes for 2YOs at the Spa last summer:
Exaggerator won the Saratoga Special and the Cal bred Ralis (pointed to the
Rebel apparently) dominated the Hopeful Stakes. Then Exaggerator took the Delta
Jackpot, beating east coast and midwest shippers.

The question now is what can we take from Laoban\'s Gotham run. Laoban came to
the Gotham out of the Sham Stakes at SA, which was won by Collected, who turned
in a clunker when subsequently shipped to OP by Baffert.

Yes the track carried Laoban, but he was confronted twice and twice repulsed
challenges; he broke rather awkwardly and was hard ridden to get to the front.

Can we build a case for a continued California edge based on a maiden coming
out of what has been called a weak Gr. III Cal stake and almost upsetting an
admittedly weak Gr III at AQ (only one SW in the field)?

Ancillary Note 2: The Guru mentioned many high profile TAP flops on the list of
3YOs with multiple Florida preps; looking at the list, two Derby trail
disappointments were eventually turned over to TAP to train: Harlan\'s Holiday
and Quality Road.

[miff]

KMac very aware that Mohaymen a May foal, on the smaller side, and is not really drilling-him.Mo won with rather light training so far,clockers not impressed,just ok,Fl Derby acid test vs Nyquist.Assume KMac will follow same training and try to have Mo peak for derby.

Re Nyquist O\'Neill using very similar training regimen to I\'ll Have Another\'s TC run, long gallops for months.Reports indicate Nyquist doing great now.

[jefflowe]

Upstart is the other horse I can think of that ran in all three at GP recently.