ROTW

[Tavasco]

Late Friday night I had time after watching Kimbo Slice and Royce Gracie win forgettable MMA matches. Although I don\'t think I\'ll ever forget the Kimbo slice match as one of the most hilarious bouts ever. He was exhausted prior to the end of round one and it went well into the 3rd (5 minutes rounds). The contestants were too tired to raise their arms or throw a punch. They kept falling down and the ref made them stand up because all they could do was lay there.

So with excitement I looked into the ROTW analysis.  Then I reflected upon it for some 3-5 hours. When I came back to the analysis it was with the notion that the TG staff are so very close to the game and have analyzed countless races they have developed a real elegance, an objective simplicity. Love the race and can only hope the price on Pumpkin Rumble stays double digits. At the m/l odds, I\'ll use the three horses TG likes in an exacta box.

Then I wondered how the ROTW is selected and I\'m sure it varies week to week. In this case I\'m guessing that TG looked through their data for a race that had an apparent overlay and settled on this \"The Fairgrounds Handicap,\"  Not a a bad strategy overall.

So, I did my version of the same thing and discovered two other races where horses will be pricey based on reasoning which may be suspect. Both at the FG. Race #8 The Daisy Devine 1+1/8 on the turf for fillies. #5 Faufiler a Graham Motion filly who seems to have gone wrong after coming to the U.S. we all know HGM can get them ready after some R&R so the m/l of 9/2 could float I\'ll be watching.

My long shot pipe dream selection of the day is the feature race number yo eleven Veteran Ford Risen Star (yum don\'t ya love title sponsors?) My selection went off @ 36/1 in his initial race @ CD and was a little lucky/unlucky to run second a head. In any event came back at the FG to win @ 3/2! Yes siree #11 in the 11th Zaperinni with a m/l of 30/1.

[atakante]

On a Fair Grounds card that seemed to have a DEEP bias against all favorites, it is ironic that Chocolate Ride made it to the finish line pretty much untouched.  Pumpkin Rumble did not show any signs whatsoever of a meaningful \"Rumble\". Guessing he bounced pretty badly here.  Does anyone have a good explanation of how CR beat the 1%+18% odds of pairing or doing better?