ROW 1/23

[jp702006]

Great call today. Although your suggested \'key\' to play underneath scratched, I substituted the 9 horse and was able to cash a few tickets. It just further proves the point that you can make a little bit of money, even when a heavy favorite wins.

Patrick

[Tavasco]

Some reflections and thoughts on ROTW.

Charming Kitten totes 6 lbs more than 2nd place Xaverian (for 2 miles)! Xaverian loses a path of ground on the first three turns and the 4th turn ground loss looks to be arguably equal with the winner. Yet, per chart, they only finish 1+1/2 lengths apart at the wire or .5 pt according to TG analysis. i.e. 1 pt = 3 lengths at the distance of 2 miles.

So I\'m curious about the net weight and ground loss adjustments because based on their form I wouldn\'t have expected the race to have been as close as it was at the finish. Nobody else in the same zip code so I guess it is fair to speculate Xaverian ran a new top. (Not something I would have expected from Sky Mesa progeny at that distance yet the horse\'s line did shout never better. Charming Kitten, on the other hand, appears to me to have run a completely tactical race and does that hide how good or bad the performance was? While this may be a simple problem for figure makers (TG) it boggles my mind some.

Further, it seems to me that JR rode a smart race (as long as he got clear for the stretch run which he did with a little effort) causing Rosario to lose ground all the way around proving once again the importance of ground loss even in marathons.


 
On the choice of ROTW, I can\'t help but wish it had been the Stakes @ Santa Anita. I looking forward to the date turning over because I want to see the sheet of the $131 winner Lost Bus. Winning trainer Gary Sherlock has a history of winning @ a price with L/O horses and changing surfaces even though a low win percentage a positive ROI. But blinkers are his claim to fame and if I saw my tiny replay window correctly the winner was wearing a hood, first time blinkers?

Sorry to see you guys in the North East dumped on by the storm. Looks a real mess!

[belmont3]

Tavasco,

Re/ Santa Monica,

Interview post race, Sherlock said they claimed Lost Bus as a broodmare prospect and that she was a nice race horse as well. Blinks were on prior start where the #3 Kiss at Midnight beat hear at 6 1/2.
Sherlock said he \'took a shot\' because he had done the exact same thing in 2008 and had won such a race. Told the jock to go the front as the track was \'wet\' ? (think that is what he said) and the kickback would be bothersome.

To me, I had LB at a level that was  a few points slower than what was needed for the win.

GS had a banner day as recent claim in the 5th Karma King scored at 17-1 as well.

Good Luck

Bob

[atakante]

I second the nice call on this week\'s ROTW by TG.  Got a piece of the exacta pie using #9 myself!

[joemama]

Maybe GS took down the pick 6 after singling his two horses.