Hard To Have That Much Trouble In <400 Yards

[Tavasco]

Congrats Joel Rosario & Red Vine!

Pedroza opts not to use Private Zone\'s early speed to distance himself - brilliant as Miff might say.

Mshawish looked real good for a bit then not so much?

Tonalist appeared beaten and headed for retirement. The patience of JV. WOW, what a burst & finish.

Have a Cigar.

[Silver Charm]

This was brutal. I had Red Vine and whatever tactical position Rosario had early on Tonalist he gave away late when completely blocked checked and rerouted. At 5-1 this was a solid price.

Private Zone was a play against and he didn\'t have his mind on the game. Maybe he wanted to run the Pedroza wouldn\'t let him but he got swarmed and  swallowed after that modest pace.

I was very impressed with the first 3 in the Remson. They are all solid Derby Contenders. Its that time of the year again already :-)

[richiebee]

Tonalist gave me goose bumps today.

Fascinating story was Private Zone pulling himself up in a Florida workout a few
days ago. Martin Pedroza, who flew cross country to work PZ, was quoted by
trainer Lynch as saying PZ \"felt great\" during the aborted work. Lynch called PZ
a \"quirky bugger\". I was lucky enough to have had the print edition of DRF and
read about PZ\'s problems there.

The trainer change, PZ\'s reluctance huge red flags for many I\'m sure.

Tonalist one of the better NY based runners I\'ve seen in many years, sad that he
really didn\'t fire in either of his BC Classic runs.

[Tavasco]

While I share Richiebee\'s sentiments about Tonalist and Silver Charm\'s assessment of the Remsen trio. My contrarian cannot forget Red Vine\'s Pacific Classic and Tonalist in his BC\'s.

So skeptics have ammunition. One could conclude the Cigar was very ordinary regarding performance figures. Are MShawish & Matroon G1 competition? Yet the race was run like a turf race or a speed skating heat.

The raw times are unimpressive to those not in the know about the track/race variant. Doubtful that figure makers will agree on the 2 y/o\'s. So here we go again the top N.Y. Derby horses will be over or under rated by a race that was slow by the clock and one whose #\'s are likely to be questioned for five months.

So I\'m off to Japan to wait for the $5M cup and the unlikely proposition that a 3 y/o filly (MIKKI QUEEN) can beat all comers @ 1+1/2 miles at a measly 4/1 m/l. I\'ll probably have to listen to a few Donnie Iris cuts to keep from snoozing.

[jbelfior]

Wife gave me $500 to start our Christmas shopping (she\'s a bit under the weather).

I loved Mshawish today. Would have been even better if he ran 2nd. Not sure what happened there. Regardless,she should know better.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[FrankD.]

Silver,

As I informed you and a few others the Brownie\'s did some serious futures betting on Gift Box over the last week. Wynn went from 150/1 to 60 and William Hill from 125/1 to 40, they will be updated again tomorrow?

He was very rank and looked like a 2 yr old who hasn\'t quite got it yet!

I\'ve not paid much attention to raw times at Aqueduct this meet to have any clue as to forward moves for any of the top 3? Miff any Remsen numbers yet?

Last year we saw the fastest crop ever of 2 yr olds and early 3 yr olds with several negative numbers. AP obviously was the real deal friendly pace scenarios aside in many of his races he did it all. Keen Ice who was slow at the start of the year is really the only top 3 yr old that showed any development throughout the year. The rest either regressed, were flat or have been retired.

Maybe we will see a more normal development pattern especially with the NY based group whom everyone has already written off as a slow crop?

Way too early for Derby fever!!!!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[miff]

Hi Frank,

Remsen winner Moyhaymen came in at a figure equal to a TG 3 on Beyer,a little faster on TF.See what JB does.

A few 2 yr olds in that range so far.Gift Box ran ok,looks to be the type that will physically progress over the coming months.

Filly Songbird fastest at TG 1.5 at 3 other services(TG has her 3.5)Shes not going to derby, so far.

Derby futures wide open off 2 yr old form,no real fast ones so far, Nyquist going forward, no bargain imo.

Mike

[FrankD.]

Thanks Mike,

So rank early fighting the bit and tiring late drifting in on left lead with a little ground loss on 2nd turn should move him a bit forward off a 5.5 IMHO.

Certainly did not run as advertised or as he was bet; but anything going forward in only his 3rd start with only a maiden off the turf win is a positive. Interesting  out of such a non decrypt  mare?

Frank D.

[miff]

Frank,

Think he\'s ok and his performance was better than the figure might indicate, worth following.

Mike

[Silver Charm]

Frank I had to see the replay of his maiden win before I remembered I had bet him that day. It was the last on Jockey Club day and off the Turf. I\'m thinking Lisa Lewis trained the runnerup who was not giving it up very easily that race.

Going from a Maiden to a serious Stake like the Remson is a tough task. He accounted for himself well.