Internal Splits and Closing Fractions

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I just completed a fractional split analysis of the Kentucky Derby. I find this tool invaluable for getting a good grip on the Triple Crown capabilities of the Derby participants. Unfortunately I can\'t post it here because the format is \"Excel Spreadsheet.\" But I\'ll summarize it.

http://www.angelfire.com/falcon/djdalton/2004_Kentucky_Derby_Split_Fractions.xls

Closing Fraction:

The horse with the best closing fraction was Imperialism (26.11). Second best was Smarty (26.66). Third best Action this Day (26.86).

Internal Splits:

Internal Splits were very interesting. All this talk about Cliff not running his race seems a bit more questionable on the internal fractions. Cliff had the best internal split to the mile (25.10) followed in second by Smarty (25.30). Essentially, Cliff ran best where he\'s been running best but he flattened out on the tough row home and ran a closing quarter of (27.91). It may be his shoes came off in the homestretch. It may also be he got tired.

Another interesting horse was Tapit. He tied for firing the fastest internal fractions for both the 1/2 split and the 3/4 split, (23.64 and 24.12) respectively. He came home in 28.61. More evidence I\'m afraid for his connections that his next race should be the Met Mile.

I did this same review in 1989. Its almost the same thing I saw then. 14 of 18 came home in slower than 2:06. By the way that Belmont in 1989 was Easy Goer by 8 in 2:26 and it probably could have been by 15.   Sunday and Le Voyager (new shooter) battled for the place with Sunday prevailing on heart and class alone. He wanted no real part of 12 marks.



Post Edited (05-04-04 06:30)

[beyerguy]

If you think Tapit was overmatched in the Derby, you would need night vision goggles to find him finishing the Met Mile!

[jbelfior]

CtC--

Terrific work. I\'m intrigued with BORREGO. Not sure he was able to run his race and they found some mud in his lungs when they scoped him. Besides, he\'s been the closest to SJ recently. I like what I see here as far as his internal fractions until he spit the bit.

The Derby\'s tough to use as a measuring stick. I think a good deal of the field came back worse than one could imagine, therefore the short potential field in Baltimore. ACTION THIS DAY had so much crap in his lungs, he nearly fainted after the race.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jbelfior wrote:

> therefore the short potential field in Baltimore. ACTION THIS
> DAY had so much crap in his lungs, he nearly fainted after the
> race.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
>
>

Joe you sure you\'re talking about Action this Day or Mininster Eric?  I heard Minister almost went down.

[Michael D.]

CtC,
i think both of us had the breeding concerns about tapit back a a few months ago. he is from the ruby slippers family, and even though there is nijinky back there, most horses from thoses bloodlines have been sprinters. pulpit will get some good routers no doubt, he is getting too good a book of mares not to, but his brilliance as a sire will be producing really fast horses. i tend to agree with you, tapit could be a very good miler, maybe good enough to compete with the best (most likely next year though).



Post Edited (05-05-04 15:57)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tapit\'s already a success. Whatever happens from here in its all gravy. He\'s almost earned back his 625K purchase and I\'m sure he can be syndicated to result in a profit.

If he were a bay or brown colt I probably wouldn\'t have been as skeptical about his distance ability, but I\'m not high on Pulpit. That said I almost let his fabricating stable talk me into the fact he likes to look at crowds when he\'s racing...lol Hell, I was about to give him a pass but for the imput here. But the reason I don\'t care for Pulpit is that I don\'t think very much of Preach and I think the stout A.p. Indy blood has to overcome a whole lot there to even get a miler type. You\'re right about Pulpit getting lots of good mares. Few stallions have gotten his book.

Pulpits best distance type horse has been Essence of Dubai. He won the Super Derby, but I think that was at 9 marks. He also won a Group II at 10 marks in Dubai. I don\'t know what kind of horses he faced there. But Essence is out of Epitome a Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and her Sire was Summing who won the Belmont and he was 2nd in the Super Derby when I know it was 10 marks.

Sky Mesa really wasn\'t a great horse. He wasn\'t even a 9 furlong horse.

Last thing about Pulpit, I never believed he was really hurt after the Kentucky Derby. I think he may have had a minor setback, but I\'m pretty sure Claiborne knew the writing was on the wall and they thought he\'d make a good stallion mated to the right stamina mares. Pulpit couldn\'t hang on to these fractions:

:23 2/5, :47 2/5, 1:12 1/5, 1:37, 2:02 2/5

The real interesting horse this year to me is Imperialism. I\'d love to know what Taub paid for him and whether T-Graph considered him an acquisition at any point. He\'s got to deal with a closers fate but I\'m pretty sure now he\'s a darn good horse. Caveat: he was bearing in a bit. Not like Tapit, but he was bearing in. If he were my horse I\'d never run him in California again, with the possible exception of Del Mar. He\'d run at Belmont and Saratoga.



Post Edited (05-04-04 18:42)

[Michael D.]

imperialism was my pick. i watched him as closely as i could, and i think there were a few spot in the race when he really didn\'t have a chance to get rolling. given it was an 18 horse field, that should not have come as a surprise to me, but i think he was the second best horse in the race. if i owned him, i would put him up for a while, and point for the jim dandy/travers.

[HP]

Impy started and stopped three times according to Desormeaux. After Smarty loses the Preakness I bet they will come back for the Belmont. HP

[jbelfior]

CtC--

I believe it was in BLOOD HORSE and they said ATD. They could have made a mistake since Mandella trains both.

The point is that it may take a while for the majority of the also rans to come back to their best efforts.

I\'m putting my trust in Beau Greely that BORREGO came back OK. I hate throwing money on a horse that may be starting a downward trend. However, I was visually impressed by his middle move and your pace analysis indicates that his internal race was not that bad.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[P-Dub]

CTC,
I just wanted to tell you that I enjoyed your \"conversation\" w/ Beyer and that I always look forward to your posts. They are well thought out and extremely informative. Thank you for all of your time and expertise, I especially liked your post on the internal Derby fractions.

P-Dub

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

thx Pdub...its not foolproof, nothing is in this game, but I think it does indicate stamina abilities.

The most interesting comparison to me in this split breakdown is the difference between the mile split fraction and the final split fraction. I think you can see a lot of information in that if you look close. Some horses were stopping after a mile and you have to make a determination if they were stopping on Pedigree or stopping for another reason and all you can do is give it your best educated guess. I think Tapit was stopping on Pedigree. I\'ve always believed his decent extrapolated closing fraction in the Wood was aided by pace choice and running over the sprint part of the strip for his \"Closing fraction\". I don\'t know for certain where the wind was, but the sprints were extremely hot Wood Day. (I still put Tapit in Third)

TCE and Borrego are much more difficult calls. I tend to think TCE was impacted somewhat by the strip but not as much as people might think. Borrego was right in it and caved the last quarter. That could be limitations.  It could have been mud in his lungs to some extent. He ran a nice closing quarter in the Ark, so I don\'t know how to read that for sure.

[Michael D.]

i think both borrego and TCE will be at their best in races 9f and less. i handicapped borrego having a difficult time with the final eighth in the derby. if they try some of the races beyond 9f in the future, i am pretty sure we will see the same results. TCE is a very fast horse, i can see him being competitive in some of the longer races in the future just because he has so much class, but i am pretty sure his best races will be from 8f to 9f.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael, if I had the time I\'d look at each Churchill Race where the time got slow and the closing quarter pedestrian and look for some patterns to apply to the Preakness and Belmont...i know 1989, 1948 and 1925 are places to start...however I dont think in 1925 the races were spaced like they are today.

I have one more race to bet today..and then I\'ll look into it.

[Michael D.]

sounds good, looking forward to it. pimlico always confuses me, but they have scheduled some of the best baltimore racing i have seen in a while for next fri and sat (if all of the expected starters go), so i guess it\'s time to start taking a look. as for the belmont, i am already leaning strongly towards a horse that flopped in the derby.