Derby Post Mortem

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

First of all, I realize I picked a favorite, anyone can do that and many can argue the track played with results, which is certainly arguable. However I didn\'t bet a favorite without great reflection and the last one I bet in the Derby was either Summer Squall or Easy Goer. Captain Bodgit was close but I think Silver Charm was favored. I can\'t remember now.

Sitting here with a Oatmeal Stout, and analyzing the chart I realize how close I was to burning money on Tapit. Only Jerry\'s input kept me from putting him in perfectas and in second in tri bets I didn\'t hit anyway.

That erratic stretch run in the Wood said something about the horse. Its too early to tell and Dickinson despite his eccentricities is a good trainer. But the T-Graph Wood came up light and I tossed the horses from it. Here again T-Graph came through.

It appears also the Florida Derby was not an exceptional race. The best horse in it was TCE and its possible the off track wasn\'t his cup of tea and then theres the regression factor. TCE did flatten out and he\'s never really done that before, but I have to say I\'ve always suspicious of his ability to stay a trip. Gulch over Danzig is questionable to say the least.

Smarty came home in 26:66 Thats obviously not impressive. I haven\'t gone through the whole field yet but I\'m fairly sure that other than Imperialism no one closed with a better fraction. The last race had slowish fractions as well.  

Its gonna be a tough one for T-Graph, though to my eye the race looks alot like  Sunday Silence\'s Derby in 1989. Other than the top two anyone near the pace fell off, so you have to take your hat off to Rion Hart running so well early on a heavy track and holding up as well as he did. I think Jerry\'s Bluegrass was right on.

[Michael D.]

your choice was excellent ...... a lot of crowd favorite money hurt your odds, but still great handicapping...... i hope you tossed in my key, and your fathers horse to hit the tri ??

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

No i missed it..i\'m embarrassed by it. I only would have put him in third and why I didn\'t I can\'t say...an oversight.

He beat Rion...he deserved to be tossed in. I think what I did was discount the Santa Anita Derby and thats what cost me.

I left limehouse out too, so the big score wasn\'t meant to be for me. I spread so far in the perfectas I got cautious.

[Thehoarsehorseplayer]

Forget it being the favorite.  You picked the winner (and emphasized the exacta) out of a field of 18.  And you picked it for very sound and seasoned reasons.
That was a display of dam good handicapping to me.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

thx hoarse

and I\'m with you 100% on seeking integrity in the game

[LasVegasHorseplayer]

Very insightful KD analysis by Thorograph.

Anyone who had the TG information for the Derby should have walked away with a nice score yesterday...

I think it is possible  for someone who was bankrolled properly to have made million dollar score given the pool sizes. By my estimation if there had been another five hundred $2 trifecta tickets sold, it would have reduced the payoff to around $950 or so and another ten supers out of the pool would have reduced that payoff to around $37,500....wonder what others think?