Another stat that doesn't matter...

TGJB · August 29, 2015, 12:43:41 PM

According to Jim Mazur, the last 17 horses Baffert has run at Saratoga on less than 30 days rest have lost.

P-Dub · August 29, 2015, 12:46:12 PM

How many were less than even money??

miff · August 29, 2015, 01:00:45 PM

Guess your not following the talking head stat guys on NYRA, TVG et al, getting buried the whole meet.

TGJB · August 29, 2015, 01:16:45 PM

Every single person who handicaps is looking at stats, one way or another.

Pdub, I don\'t know, but Baffert doesn\'t send out a whole lot of longshots. Especially when he ships to run.

miff · August 29, 2015, 01:18:33 PM

True JB and the sharp ones that use stats to help overall are filtering them.

Boscar Obarra · August 29, 2015, 01:22:59 PM

Use of stats like everything else, requires a deft hand.

P-Dub · August 29, 2015, 01:24:07 PM

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Every single person who handicaps is looking at
> stats, one way or another.
>
> Pdub, I don\'t know, but Baffert doesn\'t send out a
> whole lot of longshots. Especially when he ships
> to run.

Absolutely agree about using stats. When betting sports, it\'s 95%+ of what I do.

True Baffert doesn\'t send out many long shots. While I agree generally with using stats, and the Baffert stat is eye opening, there are times to toss stats. And for me, I\'m not going to bet against AP today. However, those taking a shot against have that stat to bolster their position as well as other factors.

TGJB · August 29, 2015, 01:35:30 PM

Absolutely. For example, you could filter by track.

Again, if I\'m betting a 20-1 shot, I could care less.

Boscar Obarra · August 29, 2015, 01:37:50 PM

A negative stat has to make some logical sense.

In the case of Baffert, what would be the logic behind a knock here?

miff · August 29, 2015, 01:42:10 PM

Ed Bain, Jim Mazur, Equibase, DRf formulator excellent products if you rely heavily on stats.

P-Dub · August 29, 2015, 01:53:34 PM

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A negative stat has to make some logical sense.
>
> In the case of Baffert, what would be the logic
> behind a knock here?

Any stat has to make logical sense.

As for the logic behind knocking AP today, You would have to ask someone betting against, something I\'m not doing today.