question for TGJB

[Michael D.]

as you have mentioned, the belmont surface is slower than it used to be because it now contains a higher % of sand. therefore, when it gets real wet, it tends favor the speed, as the wet sand does not slow things down like mud. the churchill surface as been getting faster over the past few years (at least on derby day). can i assume that the surface contins less sand than it used to, or does the crew just juice the track up on derby day? do you think the CD surface gets heavier when it gets a lot of rain?

[TGJB]

Good question, complicated answer. I didn\'t say Belmont favors speed when it gets wet, but yes, it gets faster.

I only started investigating the \"why\" of all this stuff a year or so ago, but Elliot Walden told me a few years ago that CD had gone to more sand some years before, then increased the clay percentage again in 01-- he said you could see the difference in the color of the track. All things being equal, the more sand, the more the track will speed up with water (and not necessarily a lot of water). But even though one track may have a LOWER percentage of sand compared to another track, it may still have enough sand in it that it gets faster with water-- although it might not get as much faster as another track under the same circumstances.

But all that aside, all things are not equal. On the infamous Chilukki debut day, rain was forecast, and the track was sealed in the morning. Chilukki ran in the first, over a sealed dry track. The track was opened for the second, still dry, then rain hit. The third (and maybe fourth, I don\'t remember) were run over a wet unsealed track, then it was sealed again, so the rest of the card was run over a sealed track that had water in it. The track speed was jumping all over the place.

The point being-- a lot will depend on what they do with the track in anticipation (or not) of the rain. If they seal it, it won\'t matter as much what the composition is when the rain hits.

Bottom line-- I can\'t answer your question in advance. I\'ll know how fast it is by how fast the horses run.

[Michael D.]

ok, thanks a lot for the reply .......

[Mall]

No idea why this is, but the West Coast trainers who usually complain about the track being too hard are talking about it being \"soft\" this yr, & there certainly haven\'t been as many training injuries as there were last yr. Baffert gave this as the reason he expects his charges to run much better than they have in Calif, & it was impossible not to notice that he had 3 impressive winners today. An even more interesting interview of Haskin, who said that Dickinson(you have to love the picture of him laying large chunks of sod in front of the barn so Tapit could graze on the same grass as he does as Tapeta) correctly predicted the Beyer Tapit would run in the Wood, & also told him before the Wood what Tapit\'s Beyer would be in the Derby. Unfortunately, the TVG gal doing the interview didn\'t think to ask what it was going to be!

[Michael D.]

i don\'t know if the CD surface was hard or soft today, but it sure was quick. two horses missed track records by a fifth of a second.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

If Dickinson predicted that Beyer with the two turn variant issue and the bearing in ground loss, then he would win at darn near 100% because he would place his horses almost invariably in the right spot. I think he wins at a very credible 20%, (28% current year). He may win this Derby but putting grass from Tapeta farm in front of Tapit\'s stall won\'t win it for him. I have to admit, I do like him because he\'s so considerate of the horse. He\'s the anti-Lukas. He\'ll need to improve about 8 beyer points plus from that outside hole and closing on less than a scorching pace. His drills are leisurely. Plus the bearing in is still not sufficiently explained.

If he wins every owner out there is gonna beat a path to his door next year. They may not like his 3 races a year program however. But my suspicion is he\'s probably gonna have to go back to drawing board a bit after this one.

I\'ll save with him in third. But I will let him beat me.