Last 9 Belmont winners skipped Preakness

[Focus959]

And 12 out of the last 13...as the breed for speed continues takes hold...

2014 Tonalist   Peter Pan 1st
2013 Palace Malice Derby 12th
2012 Union Rags Derby 7th
2011 Ruler on Ice Pimlico prep 2nd
2010 Drosselmeyer Dwyer 2nd
2009 Summer Bird Derby 6th
2008 Da Tara Pimlico prep 2nd
2007 Rags to Riches Oaks 1st
2006 Jazil Derby 4th
(2005 Afleet Alex)
2004 Birdstone Derby 8th
2003 Empire Maker Derby 2nd
2002 Sarava Pimlico Prep 1st

[toppled]

With the exception of Summer Bird, they all raced at 2.  Outside of Summer Bird, how many other Belmont winners were unraced as 2yos?  It can\'t be very many.  

I remember being at the Belmont in the 1980s and I bet against Caveat in the Belmont with a lightly raced horse.  I learned that horses without a decent foundation don\'t just jump in & win the Belmont.

[TGJB]

Really? You learned that in one race? What did you learn when Summer Bird won?

[toppled]

What that one race showed me was I made a horrible bet on Barberstown & when I looked at the success rate afterwards of the chances of a horse like that winning the Belmont, it was too low a percentage play for me to have made.

Summer Bird was in a weird year.  I don\'t imagine too many people around here were on the Mine that Bird bandwagon & that was a good year to bet lightly raced horses as two major contenders were Dunkirk & Summer Bird.  I had Dunkirk 1 & Summer Bird 2, cashed a saver exacta & a DD because I understood that the field warranted betting the lightly raced horses if you tossed MTB.  

If you have the data, how many horses who haven\'t raced at 2 have won the Belmont?  I asked the question because I don\'t know the answer & would like to know what it is.

[TGJB]

I don\'t have the data but it\'s more than have won the Derby. Yes, 2yo foundation helps. You\'re asking a lot for a horse to be unraced Jan 1 and to be accomplished enough even to enter by the Belmont, let alone win it.

In general, the studies we use for the seminars (tops, off races etc.) are the best way to study these things, but if you\'re going to go by results, you are better off using in the money than wins. It gives you a larger sample size and distorts less.

[miff]

For the stat guys, believe it\'s accurate.


TC Candidates

Eight of the first nine trying for TC won the Belmont

Next seven Lost the Belmont

Next three Won the Belmont

Last twelve Lost the Belmont


....more statistical irrelevance!

[MonmouthGuy]

Summer Bird won Belmont as a fifth choice 12-1.

Wiseguy horse was definitely Charitable Man, who was second on ML at 3-1, but went off as co-second choice w Dunkirk

[louisvilleguy1111]

And all that means absolutely nothing when it comes to this Belmont Stakes

AP has to beat the horses he is running agaisnt on June 6 no one else. Never been much of a fan of the horse, but seeing how he has come out of the first two triple crown races I will pass the race focus on some those other nice graded races on the card and root for AP to win the triple crown for the good of the sport. I am sure there will be way better options that day to make a score then trying to beat AP with horses that frankly looked overmatched IMO

[Perfect Drift]

Getting to the Belmont with a chance to win the Triple Crown is good for the sport. Whether he wins or not has no bearing on future impact, especially since it is likely AP would be retired if he wins.  

We need a gelding to win the Triple Crown and tour the country for another 3 or 4 years competing in all the big races.  THAT would be great for the sport.

[louisvilleguy1111]

AP wins or not doesn\'t matter you wait and see he is running in the BC Classic (unless of injury) and Keeneland is going to be CRAZY!! Can you imagine the BC Classic with a Triple Crown winner running in it...