Waaaay too early look at the 122nd Metropolitan Handicap

[phil23]

Some obvious assumptions built in here - that BB does run Bayern here and not the Foster (as he has mentioned), that Lynch gives the all clear for Clearly Now (but really, where else does he have to run till the 7f\'s on july 4th), that Lea and Raceday do not make miraculous recoveries from whatever is ailing them and draw in, and most of all that TAP does run CE - but given PM\'s not exactly sterling form I have to think if the weights are even close to reasonable for him as a 3yo that Pletcher will run him. Plus he has a boatload of other 3y0\'s for the Woody Steven and Easy Goer (Standford, Blofeld, etc...)

Tonalist 3
Private Zone 3.5
Palace Malice 7
Bayern 8
Competitive Edge 8
Wicked Strong 9
Honour Code 10
Tamarkuz (now with McLaughlin) 10
Clearly Now 15
Bay of Plenty 25
Sloan Avenue 40

At first glance, 3:1 AND 7/2 on the top two seems too high, but if they\'re under 3:1, you end up with just goofy prices on the others. As in, would Palace Malice or Bayern really go off at double digits? So that\'s my best guess, but think if wrong it\'s those two that will go lower (and goodness, wouldn\'t that make for some juicy betting with weights and them both coming off tops).

Also wondering about Social Inclusion. Just 2nd in comeback, but seems like distance (and timing) hits him right between the eyes. Brown local of course as well. But could see Brown just take it real slow with him in some overnight next just to get a win first.

Also Noble Bird for Casse, coming off that big CD run, and even perhaps Liam\'s Map (whom I would LOVE at the likely big price, tho obviously GP figs reproducibility would come into play for him) for Pletcher, if CE goes with the 3yo\'s.

Anyway, just a first pass. Feel free to rip away. Like I said, think could be high on top 2.

Even without the big boy (Shared Belief), one hell of a race shaping up. Really hope PM and Bayern both make it (think right now they are the two most likely to have some \"little glitch\" show up or something and not run).