BC Juvy Numbers

[boston]

I started looking at this race because \"toppled\" mentioned that it was a key race.  

Of course this is all in hindsight but, Carpe Deim\'s Juvy number looks rather strange relative to the rest of his numbers.  He ran a great race and bounced 3.5 points.  Since that race he has had two races around 5 points faster.  Upstart number also looks strange - he ran a great race and backed up 6 points.  Since the Juvy he has 3 races at least 6 points faster.

Of course Texas Red ran the race of his life - he had a one point forward move.  Mr Z ran up on the pace and the rest of the pace collapsed - he paired.  OneLuckyDane ran well and backed up 2.5 points.

Just a thought but I believe this race could be 2.5 to 6 points faster.  JB was this a tough race?  Did you tie it to the rest of the day?  I believe this race was the only race where speed backed up.

[covelj70]

These are all very good points but how big of a number can you a horse that gets demolished in a race (I.e both upstart and carpe diem)

If you don\'t have them backing up in that race, then Texas red (who was being mocked as a tin can earlier this week on this board) would have run the biggest juv figure in history

[TGJB]

The short answer is no, there was nothing tough about the race, and if you did anything to fit it with the day you would make it slower.

The long answer is in the seminar I said eastern dirt horses that didn\'t ship out weeks in advance were unlikely to run well, and boy was I right, especially about those coming from NY. Both CD and Upstart shipped in close to the race, Upstart right on top of it.

[boston]

I believe this might just be the case.  However, I am sure that Jerry has his reasons.

One could easily make this race 4 points faster.  If you do so it fits most of the 11 horses better except for Mr. Z.

That would mean the Tin Can ran a negative 1.5.

[miff]

Beyer had the Juvie much faster,like TG 0. Tin can Texas Red ran away from Carpe Diem like he was tied to a tree.

[TGJB]

And by the way, since by that time it was clear the eastern dirt horses weren\'t running, I bet out on TR against the faster eastern horses. Straight win bet, no savers.

[miff]

As a poster inferred, very tough to swallow Texas Red blew away that field and ran only a 1 point top.

[covelj70]

This is very funny

Btw, the horse that American Phaorah has been abusing in the mornings is the one that won the Illinois Derby yesterday.

Doesn\'t mean AP can get the 1 1/4 but it\'s worth noting.

[miff]

Jim,

Beat him by 7 in a gate work 3 weeks ago, worth looking at on YouTube,vicious.

Mike

[bellsbendboy]

Would only add Mike, Dortmund worked large yesterday sitting chilly, splitting horse and powering away.  The Bloodhorse has the video.  bbb

[miff]

Bell,

Saw that work, great.Dort a galloping fool,AP pure gas.

Good luck
Mike

[ajkreider]

These reports are proving to be no help whatsoever.

[toppled]

Sometimes you get a key race that you can\'t trace back to through speed figures.  It happens.  Just like you can get a negative key race that doesn\'t correspond with the speed figures.  It doesn\'t mean the numbers are wrong, but it shows that not everything can be interpreted through the numbers.  The key is those are aberrations and you just have to write it off.  The best thing to do note the + or - key and use it.  

The best example of this was the 2013 Derby.  Go back & see how many people argued for Normandy Invasion & the horse who beat him Overanalyze because the Remsen was so good.  I was one of the people who wrote them off because the Remsen was a negative key race, so the number, no matter how accurate for that day, had to be ignored. When Overanalyze won just about the weakest Ark Derby in years and Normandy Invasion came in 2nd in a weak Wood the Remsen was too fast to ignore crowd were all over us before the Derby.  Normandy ran 4th & Overanalyze was up the track.  

The best example of a key race that was slow that many will remember is Dunkirk\'s maiden win.  I don\'t know why it was run so slow, but the horses coming out of it ran well, earning much better figs the next time out. That doesn\'t mean the numbers were wrong.