The Pace Will Make The Race

[Tavasco]

Following is a very simple summary of pace and its influence on the results of the Kentucky Derby. All raw time no track variant pace duel or bias conjecture etc. Certainly this data needs be considered within in the context of speed figures the conclusions are up to you.

A quick read indicates to me that a pace of >= 1:11:50 favors early speed types and increasingly faster pace promotes the late runners. 2003 and 2011 don\'t seem to fit?


2000 - 1:09:99
No early runners in tri all late runners

2001 - 1:09:25
Late runners + Early Speed type Congaree who finished third

2002 -1:11:75
No Late runners front runners made trifecta

2003 - 1:10:48
Front runners held Empire Maker came from mid field for 2nd

2004 - 1:11:80
Front runners held Imperialism came from 15th for 3rd

2005 - 1:09:59
Only Closing Argument (2nd) lasted of the front runners

2006 - 1:10:88
Pacesetters failed, mid field came home ahead of a deep closer Steppenwolfer

2007 - 1:11:13
Hard Spun joined late and beaten by three late runners

2008 - 1:11:14
Big Brown & Eight Belles stalked took over in stretch Dennis Of Cork comes from 20th for 3rd.

2009 - 1:12:09
Frontrunner caught in slop by Mind That Bird then a presser

2010 - 1:10:58
Winner pressed the pace the next three from far back

2011 - 1:13:40
Late runner passes two pressers late

2012 -1:09:80
Bodemeister caught from mid pack then closer Dullahan

2013 -1:09:80
All late runners

2014 - 1:11:80
Late runners follow CC home

Now to forecast the 2015 pace and consequences. Dubai trending, Materialism descending. *Using this angle but clockers say hey!

[johnnym]

Hard Spun got 2nd in 2007 and led the whole way until the stretch.
2003 Funny Cide was a presser would not consider him the front runner
I see your point though and I would have to say this Derby goes under 1:11:50