Derby Odds

[Fairmount1]

A few trends concerning odds since 2008 in the Derby (last 7) if you are interested.

1. In three of the seven years, the first two choices both went off at odds of 5.20 or less.  In all three of those races, there were horses over 50-1 in the wagering.  2008, 2009, and 2012.

2.  In the other four (4) years where the second choice was over 5.20-1, no horses were over 50-1.  Of those four years, only one race (2014) had horses (2) go off over 40-1 and that was when Chrome was the heaviest favorite since Big Brown (2.50 vs. 2.40). 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014.

3.  Usually the largest gap between odds of horses by ordinal rank is at or beyond the 12th most bet horse.  However, in Big Brown\'s Derby there were significant gaps between 4th an 5th choices and 7th and 8th choices.  Someone mentioned gaps in a post but I found nothing really interesting.  

4.  Only one (1) horse has went off at odds over 60-1 since 2008. It was the same year as the heaviest favorite of the period and there were 20 horses in the race.  Z Humor 63.60 to 1 when Big Brown was 2.40.  2008.

5.  In the years 2009 to 2014 (6 years), there were either 9 or 10 horses under 20-1 every year.  2009, 2010, 2013, 2014--9 horses under 20-1.  2011, 2012--10 horses under 20-1.  In Big Brown\'s Derby, there were only 7 horses under 20-1 and the 8th ranked horse was 25-1.  

6.  Not suprisingly, the year with the highest priced favorite had the lowest priced longshot.  (2010, Lookin at Lucky 6.30 and Discreetly Mine 31.60).  That was the year immediately after Mine That Bird.  

If you believe AP and Dortmund will both be under 5.20, I am inclined to believe that in addition to horses with monster odds at the bottom, the prices on horses 3-10 by ordinal rank will be larger than you may be anticipating.  And if you believe AP will be below 5-2 or even lower, I would say the odds will be extraordinary for the other horses beyond Dortmund.  I\'m still trying to decipher if Carpe Diem or Materiality is third choice off the reports of Materiality\'s work by MJ and miff.

[boston]

They are allowing one to wager to make 30k.  All in wagering - if any horse scratches wagers on that horse are losers.

AMERICAN PHAROH    3.05
DORTMUND    4.65
CARPE DIEM    7.65
MUBTAHHIJ    10.15
MATERIALITY    16.15
FROSTED    18.15
FIRING LINE    20.5
UPSTART    20.5
EL KABEIR    22.5
INTERNATIONAL STAR    22.5
FAR RIGHT    25.5
OCHO OCHO OCHO    32.5
DANZIG MOON    40.5
ONE LUCKY DANE    40.5
WAR STORY    40.5
BOLO    45.5
STANFORD    45.5
ANY CONQUEST HORSE    52.5
ITSAKNOCKOUT    60.5
MR Z    60.5
TENCENDUR    60.5