Rag cannot get the Wood AND the Gazelle correct

[vp612]

I am sure you are aware that they put letters that reflect current track condition G for gusty dot for sloppy and double dot(Like gulf has been)So they are saying be aware that they number we gave this horse may not truly reflect the effort he put out that day.I for one play thru double dot (heavy track) as a non event.I did it saturday with frosted,\\.Now of course you term it \'\'track changing speeds,split variant or whatever else.

[Flighted Iron]

The most important point TGJB made re:wind was/is \"during the race\". Wind gusts,lays down and changes direction. How can this be calculated with precision after the fact. Would the rider be cognizant of the wind\'s effects
at every moment during the race/or significant moments of the race? Certainly
a headscratcher!

Imo re: Frosted

 Having surgery was monumental. If he hadn\'t run fast at two i\'d say bounce
for the Derby,but he has and he\'s going to give a cold shoulder to his competitors.

[miff]

Vito,

Did anyone say here that every number produced by Rags is not reflective of performance?(all wrong all the time?) If they said or think that, they do not have a small clue what they are talking about. For example, the figures for 2014 Breeders Cup results were the tightest agreemnet between TG/Rags/Beyer/TFUS since I started conversions 7 years ago. A week later, they were all over the place by comparison.How can that be?

More often than before this \"ugly figure\" thing rears its head with Rags.In a game this tough,I admire your interpretation using Rags as the sole source of your gambling, it\'s inconceivable to me that the game could be beaten that way.

Mike

[TGJB]

There\'s exactly one part of that post that matters.

So you come on here and say it was a computer glitch. As far as we can tell it was because you messed up trying to log in under one of the two accounts you opened under another name, but regardless, what you DO know is that nobody blocked you. So you not only don\'t apologize for calling me a coward over there and correct the record, you post that you got reinstated, knowing that\'s not what happened, that you weren\'t blocked.

You have a lot of balls, Vito, calling me any names.

[vp612]

Let\'s get something straight .First off I have one account here .I don\'t play that childish game of different accounts. I tried to get on and I could not.if I have something to say I say it under my name period.

[TGJB]

Now you\'re blocked. If you post an apology and retraction on the Ragozin site I\'ll consider re-instating you. Unlikely, that would require being a standup guy.

[mjellish]

I know TGJB.  Trust me.  I was just giving an easy example.  I\'ve seen many days where when you are trying to figure out what the variant looks like you see this for a 10 race sequence, and let\'s assume they are all 1 turn sprints just to keep it simple:


+4,+6,+3,+18,+4,+7,+20,+3,+1,+4

So all the race times seem fast for the day, but what happened in races 4 and 7?  Did the winner really run that fast?  If so then you would expect to see one horse win by 10 lengths and everyone else be far behind.  But what do you do when it turns out both of those fast races were decided by a photo and most of the rest of the field were only a length or two behind?  Was the whole field that fast that day? (not likely, but possible).

So that\'s the problem you have when you try to come up with a universal variant for the day and then apply it to all races.  Because if you just average all those out you come up with a variant of +7.  But if you split out the two fast races and do the others by themselves you come up with a variant of +4, which seems like a much better fit.  

I say you have to split them out because otherwise you adjust those 8 other races that seemed to fit a variant of +4 down by +7 instead.  So you make all those horses in 8 races look slower just because the two other races happened to be very fast that day.  That doesn\'t seem right to me.  And that\'s the problem with taking such a dogmatic, the number is the number and the track doesn\'t change at all approach.

It can\'t be right.

I say you go off the horses and try to come up with a variant (this is important because you need it as a data point), then see if it seems to make sense for the day.  Some days it will.  Easy day at the office.  Some days it won\'t and we have to do some thinking...

[dannyboy135]

Damn I was enjoying this discussion.  Can I say \"he is sorry\" and it count

[richiebee]

Condo Commando\'s number in the Gazelle will be irrelevant to many here who will
automatically assume that RudyRod will not be able to produce when his runners
are subjected to heightened scrutiny/enhanced testing at CD for the KY Oaks, if
there is any.