Long Island Handicap

[Rick B.]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> So, for Rick and others.  If you are \"using the
> favorite\" because he hits the exacta 50% of the
> time, how do you use him?  Let\'s say you like the
> 5-1 third choice as your so-called \"key\" horse.
> You also are keen on two horses in the 12-1 to
> 15-1 range \"underneath\" specifically in the exacta
> and a few other horses that could get third.  The
> favorite doesn\'t look like anything special
> especially compared to your 5-1 shot but has
> enough credentials to take 35% of the wagers in
> the win pool.  How do you play the race?

If my key horse is 5-1, I\'ll pass the race, because I
am tired of odds shrinkage: down to 7-2 when the gate
opens, then 5-2 when the horse crosses the wire.

Horses that are 6-1 or more rarely take a late hit. Weird.

For moderately priced horses: win bet and ex backwheel (I
don\'t make place bets) are standard.

Take the key horse and the two bombs, and make a 3 horse
ex box.

Key the favorite in the 1st and 2nd slots in the
tri, use the bombs in 2nd and 3rd, and use your key horse
through all three slots. If 50 cent tri\'s are offered, boxes
are less cumbersome and get the job done.

Simpleton approach, but it works for me.

[jbelfior]

I get your point Rick. Just not at 3-2.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jerry]

Look for value. If there isn\'t any, pass the race.

[billk5300s]

What I\'ve always done is:

1) Handicap the race
2) Adjust for bias
3) Look at the board and/or ML and see where the value is.
4) Wager based on value i.e Win/Place, exacta\'s, horizontals.
5) If the favorite fits I use it, if it doesn\'t I toss it.

Sometimes I get the bear, sometimes the bear gets me!