Random Breeders' Cup Thoughts

[Agastache]

I downloaded the Cup sheets last Wednesday night and am currently waiting impatiently for Mr. Brown\'s informative seminar.  Prior to that, though, I\'ve formed some pre-draw thoughts:

Classic
Count me as one that was surprised at Shared Belief\'s last fig. With the outrageous ground loss and interference run by Vic Espinoza, I was guessing a monster fig was coming. I was very wrong. Yet, I still believe that \'Belief\' is on the cusp of a regression. That looked to be a gut-wrenching effort and I\'ve always bought into TGJB\'s theory that synthetic specialists move forward first time on dirt and then may come back a bit in subsequent efforts.

With that said, I think Belief is just one in a long line of Classic contenders who are 50/50 to be either a good trip/heady ride away from a victory OR figure to be tailing off at the end of a long season.  To me, this is a spread race with horses like Majestic Harbor, Zivo, Bayern, and Cigar Street meriting a look. Cannot wait to see what TGJB thinks.

Juvenile
Very surprised to see the crazy numbers that the 2YO colts are running this year. I recall Uncle Mo having a towering number over his rivals, but these 2014 numbers are ridiculous.  Will be interesting to see what the next 6 months will bring for the 4 horses who are head and shoulders above the rest.

Bob Baffert
Looks like once again my Cup success will hinge on the success or failure of Baffert. Last year I sided against Baffert because of his past failures with 72 hr security and it cost me with Secret Circle and New Year\'s Day both landing in the winner\'s circle. Important decisions will have to be made with horses who I think contend like Tiz Midnight, Indianapolis, Secret Circle, American Pharaoh, and Bayern.

Count me as one that thinks Baffert plays by a different set of rules. But, he wins just enough of these big day races to make it difficult on us handicappers.

Distaff
Untapable doesn\'t appear to be the unbeatable monster she was back in the spring. Now, she just appears to be just really consistent. So has she tailed off or is she a victim of racing luck/unfavorable track conditions? Apparently, she is working like the old springtime Untapable.

Same goes for Close Hatches. It\'s been a long year going back to her starts at Oaklawn. Was her Spinster debacle a sign of a filly that is wanting the breeding shed or does she have 1 more big one in the tank?

If these two don\'t fire, the Distaff is ripe for a life changing payoff. I think its certainly on the table that 1 of the 2 don\'t run their race. Which way are you supposed to lean though?

Chaos
I believe there are numerous races on this Cup weekend that will be chaotic. I see nothing concrete in races like the Sprint, Turf Sprint, and the Juvenile Fillies. And if Toronado, Telescope or Flintshire don\'t fire (for me anyways), then the Turf and the Mile are grab bags, too.

My apologies for being long winded. Good luck to all. Hope I get a chance to discuss with and learn from you guys.

[miff]

\"Count me as one that was surprised at Shared Belief\'s last fig\"


Would argue JB being a bit stingy with Shared Belief\'s last fig. Backing up Fed Biz 1.75 from his prior effort a bit much,imo

[nicely nicely]

Attached is the race in question.

Edit by JB-- I did the race exactly the same as the routes on either side, most you could ever take off is 1/4 point. It\'s right.

[BitPlayer]

To my eye, SB\'s ground loss on the first turn looks low.  I understand TG rounds, but I would have guessed at least 5W.