friday 9th keeneland

mistermoose · October 15, 2014, 01:47:42 PM

The 9th race on Friday at keeneland looks to be an outstanding race for
wagering imho. Three year old fillies going 1 1/16th on the grass. I have
been waiting for Sparkling Review to try stakes company and she shows up
here at 30-1 ml. The post is not good, but I still plan to key her vertically
and hope she gets an ok trip..If anyone has any input on the other fillies
to include in my tickets would appreciate it. Looking forward to the breeders
cup and all the great insight on the board. My brother has his first breeder
cup starter in lawn ranger, who may be a little over matched, but is improving. Good luck to all in the next couple weeks

RICH · October 17, 2014, 02:58:27 AM

This horse has about a 2.5% chance to win, based on one factor I look at, there are several in the race like this, this chance is based on a whole year study. The roi on this over the long run is less than .70

So, when a horse like this wins its always a big payout, but its a long slow washout, in any event, good luck today.

I did not buy the sheets today, strickly another viewpoint

mistermoose · October 17, 2014, 09:06:52 AM

thanks appreciate the input. As long as the price is big still
plan on keying her top and bottom in this wide open affair.

Bet Twice · October 17, 2014, 10:51:11 AM

Without knowing which factor you are analyzing that doesn\'t provide a whole lot of value - care to elaborate?

Tavasco · October 17, 2014, 12:46:05 PM

What I like about this race is: I think there will be two distinctly separate groups of horses. Group 1 - the frontrunners and Group 2 the closers. Oddly no frontrunner stands out as one who could last (maybe Size) and the closers leave so much to do it is hard to be confident (maybe Rosiland with the right trip)

I\'d like to find one who fits between and maybe gets first run passing the pace and holding off the freight trains. My candidates are Stellaris and Anullment and only the former looks able to contender at first blush.

So I\'m ending up on Goldy Espony if M/L holds because I figure Chad Brown would not enter a slug in this race. I can\'t see your key but of course I\'m outside looking in not verse visa

Wrongly · October 17, 2014, 02:18:48 PM

Nice pick, congrats!

Labeebmile · October 17, 2014, 02:22:14 PM

Didn\'t get the 30/1 you were looking for, but hopefully you whacked the exotics. Nicely done!

Tavasco · October 17, 2014, 02:23:37 PM

Very well done! Now that\'s a good exacta! and...

billk5300s · October 17, 2014, 02:26:54 PM

Congrats on a nice pick! With the analysis you\'ve got the exacta! Congrats!!!

jma11473 · October 17, 2014, 02:37:11 PM

That\'s a great call Mistermoose, nailing a 30-1 ML shot two days before the race. Major congratulations, hope you destroyed the race.

mistermoose · October 17, 2014, 03:57:09 PM

thanks all, didn\'t go off at huge odds as expected but the bomb gave me big
exacta hit. Totally flush with cash for breeders cup. Hope we all get it
at santa anita. My guess is Richie bee sent it in on the win end dropping
the odds lol.

richiebee · October 18, 2014, 05:57:09 AM

Nice going Mistermoose.

I thought the 30/1 ML was just laziness on the part of the morning line maker, but do not understand this filly going off at about the same odds as she did in her NW1 score at KD.

A good portion of my small score covered the expenses incurred the previous day on a veterinary visit for one of the family felines who went off his feed; between that and the knocked down price, the recap wasn\'t nearly as happy as it could have been.

On to the BC, looking forward to reviewing TG advance materials sometime next week.