ROTW

[TGJB]

Will be the Del Mar hcp, Sat at Dmr.

[siphonbobby]

I agree 5 looks real good. I also think the 1 is usable at double digits

[bellsbendboy]

In over five decades of handicapping this is one of the more perplexing heats that has crossed our desk.  Stakes horse in awful form meeting sharp claimers in an eleven panel, two turn grass voyage with the rail up!

Understand the analyst selecting this race as many will be well overbet, yet disagree with the some of the conclusions, or at least selections.

As I have previously, some would say posthumously, posted, I am not being critical of the analysts\' nor impugning them, merely offering opinion, especially on the turf rail placement which is not included in the DRF.  It is up to the capper to do their own research and develop their own conclusions, though I will write that using the term \"conditioning move\" is pure voodoo.

This, the 75th running of the Dmr \'cap is a very weak rendition.  A five pack of claimers and a five pack of stakes animals going three turns.

First, most of the stakes entrants are severely off form, and yet none of the claimers figure to improve enough to win.  In post position order:

[TGJB]

Memo to \"our desk\"-- hard to see how Fire With Fire can be considered \"out of form\" by conventional handicapping, since in his last three he won two graded stakes and lost a photo in a third. \"Classes up\" pretty well, no?

[bellsbendboy]

Sorry power outage.  Ninety degrees here on the mountain and humid enough to cause the eggs in the fridge to sweat!

No matter short version. The players:  Topic, Bright Thought, and Star Spangled.  The tosses; the rest.

The enigma:  Bright Thought.  Jorge cannot read the condition book and backed into this homer.  5yo Hat Trick ridgling got very good then took a hundred or so days off then shipped to take on wise dan!  Dumb.  Then he did it again!  Owners/ breeders finally gave the horse to a solid conditioner and can he turn a year of training aroung in a month?  This horse has always run off in the am and Phil is apparently using check reins?  He can be the pace if they decide suc a very tough call for the capper.

[bellsbendboy]

Sorry  again Poshsky is a 20K claimer, Big john a multiple claimer, Si Sage has one good fig but it would be a surprise to see him competitive although the prep across the world is interesting, if not unbelievable, bench light a claimer, Quick Casablanca scratches as the most likely winner, Unbridled Command with desperation blinkers appears hopeless, Fire with fire will definetly need this one and Cognito comes off back to back eddie read sixths.

TOPIC is honest need only repeat two of her last three to be a major player.  Neil scratched out of last night for this and this Discreet Cat filly will run all day.  When asked why he scratched Neil said he wanted black type.  Hello she is already grade one placed!  Asking Neil a question is akin to looking in a mirror for an answer.  Drops eight pounds from last eve, runs inside and is the most likely winner to this capper.  Star Spangled also box cars may round out the exacta.

Again sorry for the multiple posts. bbb

[bellsbendboy]

Classes up just fine but been off ninety days, has worked poorly and he is a good morning animal and Neil, again a tough interview says he will need this one.  The filly comes home faster and she gets big weight!

The disclaimer is that a three turn heat has much less pace.

[sekrah]

For the record, I love Unbridled Command.

Good looking soundness pattern from 2 to 3.  Injury/Time off looks like a fluke rather than an unsound horse.

Already getting back to his best in 3rd race off the layoff.

[TGJB]

Nakatani only making 120 doesn\'t help Si Sage any. But the point is, it ain\'t about class. You used the word \"figure\", and discussed condition. When you cherry picked races to red board, it was about class.

Did the first two in the Kings Bishop \"class up\"? Did the Travers winner? Did Student Council when we won the Pacific Classic?

[bellsbendboy]

JB

I think, or have learned that \"class\" is much more important on turf and the farther the better.  Turf horses often accelerate; dirt animals almost never.
I\'ll be the first to admit that you kick my ass on dirt.  The \"redboards\" which seems harsh, I posted, because I felt I had something to offer. I have great respect for your product and your attention to accuracy.   bbb

[TreadHead]

Funny how when you try to identify who the \"class\" horses are and are not prior to the race instead of after it, it looks like a questionable discussion topic, to put it politely.

[Tavasco]

Seems a lot of $\'s knew the #4 laid over these. Probably related $\'s made the exacta the second most popular combination behind the #5. Somebody(s) understood this race.

[Rick B.]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Seems a lot of $\'s knew the #4 laid over these.

Several services with fairly decent-sized followings
(The Lindo Report, Jerry J\'s PowerPage, etc.) had
Big John B as their Best Bet of the day. He was also
the top-ranked horse in the BRIS\' Prime Power Rating
for the race.

Jon White (the morning line maker for SoCal) is
usually pretty accurate but he missed something that
was pretty obvious to the betting public even before
today\'s race: this is likely the best claim of 2014.

For the record, Big John B was only in the 2nd and 3rd
spots on my tickets -- I tried to beat him, too. FAIL!