Travers handicapping discussion

[justwin]

With first post at 11:35 will the 10:40 handicapping start be adjusted to an earlier time

[Rick B.]

If you didn\'t already notice the updated TG home page, 9:15 am.

BYOCFlakes.

[joemama]

Saratoga Weekend Handicapping Discussions
This Weekend 8/23-8/24
Featuring: Alan Benewitz
9:15 - Saturday
10:40 - Sunday

Location: Wooden Deck Across from the Carousel

[JohnTChance]

Here's my quick analysis (which took me 20 seconds) of the 2014 Travers:

If Rosario breaks cleanly and has the good sense to save ground... TONALIST wins by pairing his last performance. If Rosario goes wide all around the track, 4W4W again... TONALIST doesn't win. My issue is more the jockey than the colt here.

The bet: A boring and unsexy win-place on TONALIST.

JTChance

[jp702006]

Tonalist does look great. If you are looking for a price horse, checkout the forward moving pattern on V E Day. He may not be as fast as the big 3, but if he continues to progress, he could be right there.

[Ollie]

I firmly believe nothing is beating Wicked Strong on Saturday. He is a completely different runner now, that the blinkers have been added. JAJ remedied the problem, which had caused the horse to look around during his races --- being unfocused, along with the head turning, veering in and out in response to the whip, making wrong lead changes --- which cost him valuable time, and distance.


Suggest people go back and review his raw talent, that was on display in the Remsen last year. He was thrust into the race just after breaking his maiden. All the negative items cited above were on display for all to see. And despite all that, he still almost pulled it off, and won the race. He was also virtually the only horse to make up any appreciable amount of ground in the Aqueduct stretch that entire day, and that was with Cairo Prince and Honor Code, (the two front runners), setting dawdling fractions to boot. So, how just how good was he, even with all the greenness and immaturity shown?


Granted, the Remsen was nine months, and we all know how much can change in that period of time, don\'t we? That applies to both, good things, as well as bad things. Now that the power and the raw talent have been harnessed, I believe strongly, we are not even close to seeing the best out of this horse. For me, he just moved to a different plateau. If I can get 7/2 on him, I\'ll consider it a gift.


As Always, the Best of Luck to All !!!

[toppled]

Why did Wicked Strong have front bandages on in his last race?  If there\'s a good answer I\'d be more comfortable with him as my top pick.

[miff]

Fronts could mean WS runs down on the Spa surface which is no big problem OR there could have been a minor issue somewhere up front training up to his last race.

Ran his race w/fronts so would not let that bother me too much.

[bellsbendboy]

Certainly agree Mike, yet would add that this ones grandfathers\' were a long way from being sound and their offspring often have issues.  Additionally, when racing on a track for the first time many trainers toss on the linen. bbb

[Ollie]

Fully agree with Miff on the former. JAJ and the crew have been extremely patient bringing Wicked around. I was shaking my head last year at the raw talent being displayed, and then tearing my hair out, wondering why he hadn\'t tried him out with the blinkers, early on, this year. Then, I was trying to convince myself, he had already tried the blinkers on him, but didn\'t like what he saw. And then, finally seeing an announcement that he would have the horse work in blinkers had me excited but, exhausted --- believing it took way, way too long, for something that appeared pretty obvious, at least to moi, and I\'m not that smart.

[richiebee]

Ollie Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I firmly believe nothing is beating Wicked Strong
> on Saturday. He is a completely different runner
> now, that the blinkers have been added. JAJ
> remedied the problem, which had caused the horse
> to look around during his races --- being
> unfocused, along with the head turning, veering in
> and out in response to the whip, making wrong lead
> changes --- which cost him valuable time, and
> distance.
>
>
> Suggest people go back and review his raw talent,
> that was on display in the Remsen last year. He
> was thrust into the race just after breaking his
> maiden. All the negative items cited above were on
> display for all to see. And despite all that, he
> still almost pulled it off, and won the race. He
> was also virtually the only horse to make up any
> appreciable amount of ground in the Aqueduct
> stretch that entire day, and that was with Cairo
> Prince and Honor Code, (the two front runners),
> setting dawdling fractions to boot. So, how just
> how good was he, even with all the greenness and
> immaturity shown?
>
>
> Granted, the Remsen was nine months, and we all
> know how much can change in that period of time,
> don\'t we? That applies to both, good things, as
> well as bad things. Now that the power and the raw
> talent have been harnessed, I believe strongly, we
> are not even close to seeing the best out of this
> horse. For me, he just moved to a different
> plateau. If I can get 7/2 on him, I\'ll consider it
> a gift.
>
>
> As Always, the Best of Luck to All !!!


Thanks \"Ollie\".

Just a technical question. Are you able to type the post once, and then transmit
the text to both Ragozin and TG simultaneously? Is it possible you can post in
one place and then link it on the other site? Just curious.

I checked both posts -- the Shermanator post on Rags, the Ollie post here --to
see if you discussed Rag #s there and TG #s here, only to find that, well...

List of excuses for not discussing performance figures on a performance figure
forum:

1) I do not order the figures until race day.
2) The dog ate my figures.
3) I have been making my own performance figures for 25 years.
4) I can use the Beyer figure, the closing number on the S&P 500, and the 1 PM
temperature in Central Park in a formula which yields with amazing accuracy a
horse\'s Rag and TG number.

I guess I could be called equally guilty of ignoring performance figures by
saying the two colts I like in The Travers on Saturday are not among the fastest
in the field based on their TG #s.

Without knowing anything about track condition or how the horses will appear in
the paddock on what looks to be a relatively cool day, my current opinion would
be that both Maragh (Wicked Strong) and Rosario (Tonalist) will be facing a
dilemma when they see Bayern out winging it early. The pace set by Bayern and the
tactics utilized by Maragh and Rosario are huge here and I am wondering if the
man you call JAJ and/or Chris Clement ever considered entering a bunny to keep
Bayern honest. I know lots of folks would say that\'s not cricket, but we\'re
talking $1.25 million here.

Right now I am liking two colts trained by HOF trainers. Each of these colts is
seeking their first graded stakes win on dirt in a tough spot. The price will be
there.

[Ollie]

Richie, to answer your first question, I absolutely don\'t know if it\'s possible, but I would never attempt it. Yes, there are extremely similar points mentioned, or being cited by me, but I have too much respect for the people running each board, and the people on each, and consider each board separate, and distinct, and I don\'t mind the \"extra work involved in posting separately,\" as long as I cover the key points I\'m attempting to make.  I understand there may be a competitive rivalry going on, but I would choose not to choose sides.

Since being a recent newbie here, I have been impressed by many of the posters knowledge on racing, and their views being expressed. There are excellent ideas being posed here, and discussed on so many different areas, and I really enjoy reading them. Of course, the handicapping is important, too, and I enjoy the discussions that take place in that area, also. But, I\'m still learning. There are some things I know, or have an opinion on, and I try to post it, if it seems meaningful to express it. But, there is so much to know, and to learn about this sport, and I\'m still just trying to do my best about learning it. I\'ve been lucky that I was able to spend some time on the backstretch, and observe some trainers and their crews caring for, and training their horses --- and I really found all that stuff fascinating --- so, so many variables encountered trying to get their horse(s) to succeed. I miss being around it. It was a great experience, I enjoyed it, and I learned a lot, but there\'s so much more to learn. Maybe soon, I\'ll be back out there. I\'m trying.

[Lost Cause]

top 3 definitely look good..i\'m going to add in Mr speaker..pulpit bred who runs grade 1  races on the turf switching back to the dirt ...i\'m looking for confusion up front as wicked strong and tonalist try to keep Bayern honest while mr. speaker rolls along in the back and blows by tired horses down the lane going turf to dirt.I\'m guessing thats one of the horses you like RichieBee...have fun everyone and good luck