Keeneland speed bias

[rbb54]

Tg figures are fantastic but when early speed on the dirt hols like it has at keeneland its hard to go with a likely better number if the run style is a closer. Any suggestions? With the exception of the feature today if a horse made the lead it won.

[Michael D.]

just bet classy speed. i have been trying to figure out that dirt course for years, and i can\'t come up with any other strategy. i think the turf course plays pretty fair, and they have some great grass racing ....(a bit late now, but they have left the dirt track a bit heavy for the opening w/e the last few meets).

[Mall]

Many yrs ago a Ky sharpster known as Col Chin etched his name in the history of tbred chicanery when he had his men go out to Kee in the dead of the night to change the poles, & thereby shorten the distance, for works which were sufficiently impressive to convince some rich Texas oil men to part with their cash. The way the rail is goosed up every yr in advance of the 2 yr old-in-training sale, which takes place Tues, is roughly equivalent. Knowing that & profiting from it are two different things, of course, as was evident when the never been anywhere near the lead in my life horse wired the field in the 1st race. My only suggestions are the obvious ones to avoid any horse who is likely to do any significant running outside the 1-path & to take a stand against favs who are deep closers.

[4singles2all]

take a look at the winners from today, based solely on form. speed wins races. always, everywhere, most of the time. anything else is really an abberation.

1st race winner: hood on, 5# app alw., 154K in earnings, 15k claimer. anything can happen hard to judge, but no real surprise.

2nd race winner: jr velasquez, bernie flint, 7:5, had won his 2 previous at OP where shippers have been doing well.

3rd race: looked like lone speed, won like lone speed @ 8:5

4th race: came a little off the pace, much the best @ 7:5

5th race: he\'s got speed and pat day @ 5:1

6th race: not worth 4:5, but did look good, no surprise

7th race: turf, no bias, so i\'m sure you nailed winner at 36:1

7th race: no surprise, winning 8th in a row.

the juiced-up surface comes in the fall when they run those yearlings at stupid times. even then, the bias is not as pronounced as everyone thinks.

[Mall]

What I was suggesting was that there is a rail---not speed---bias, & my opinion is based on a lot more than yesterday\'s results, although in that regard the rail skimming 2nd place finishes of Wild Proposal(20-1) & Page Me Later(15-1) seem more significant to me than the winners you mention. And since you mention it, I did have the \"winner\" of the 7th, but he was taken down(legitimately)at 28-1. Ouch.

[4singles2all]

you are right, the inside does have its moments, but so do many other tracks. and i will agree that on wed, you basically couldn\'t get by an E or EP horse that stayed inside. but hell, thats what makes the track great and when you spot the \'gold rail\' there are $$ making opportunities. today, i was drooling at the opportunity to play against halfbridled @ 1:5. the pool was corrected late and the hoss i loved took a lot of action but won for fun. how on earth was halfbridled gonna get there in a 1 turn race? it was perfection.