Untapable going in the Haskell

[Ollie]

against the boys.

[richiebee]

Does she get weight in that race? 3 pounds?

[Silver Charm]

She should be giving them 3lbs!

[phil23]

Monmouth condition book states for Haskel:   \"Weight: 122 lbs. Non-winners of a Triple Crown race allowed 2 lbs.; Non-winners of a Grade I Stake at a mile or over in 2014, 4 lbs. The owner of the winner to receive a trophy.\"

So it looks like she\'ll be on 120 and the rest of the field on 118.

Although I wonder if there\'s some unpublished weight dispensation for fillies? Dunno.

If Wild Cat Red\'s last was a slight fwd move, say to just into negative territory, his line could look pretty good compared to what his odds figure to be.

As a guess, I\'d say something like:
U 7/5
BAY 8/5
SI 8
WCR 10
MCOUNT 12
ALB 15
IRISH 25
KENNY 30

[phil23]

Looking at what Rachel carried, 117, it would appear that there is a 5 lb break in the weights for being a filly. (as she should have carried 122 as a Preakness winner, assuming the conditions are still the same).

Which would mean the fastest horse in the race is carrying 3 lbs less than every other horse....

[Tavasco]

Social Inclusion, at your projected price of 8/1, will cause me to reverse my investment strategy regarding him to use, use, use.

This looks to be a terrific race. A fair price for Untapable or Bayern fanatics. Good prices on fast horses for those who don\'t believe in the aforementioned two, as well as big prices on a couple who could get into tri and super for vertical players.

Plus pace, pace, pace... melt down potential. Could Baffert\'s plan also include a 7F Saratoga race in late August?

[Ollie]

From Monmouth Park condition book for the race: Weight 122 lbs. Non-winners of a Triple Crown race allowed 2 lbs.; Non-winners of a Grade I Stake at a mile or over in 2014, 4 lbs.


In 2009 Rachel Alexandra had won the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose, all Grade I\'s, and carried 117 lbs. in the Haskell, winning and beating Summer Bird.

So, my guess would be, Untapable would also carry 117 lbs., because of the generally assumed 5 lb. sex allowance.

[richiebee]

The weights should be 126 all with the filly getting whatever the Jockey Club calls
for \"distaffers\" to carry v males at this time of year, be it three or five pounds.
This will be this filly\'s sternest test, and no matter how dominant she has been
versus her gender or how impressive her performance figures have been, the weight
allowance for females is part of the grand racing tradition; the days of Chivalry
are far from passed.

As to Social Inclusion, this guy has a certain appeal to those on this board and in
other places where normally reasonable handicappers and horseplayers seem to always
fall in love with the fastest winter 3YO at GP. I see him at 4/1, brilliantly fast
and woefully misprepared, having a rough time in the crowded paddock on a hot day
down at the Shore, an off the board performance and 10 months of excuses going into
whatever BC race his connections will inevitably run him in.

[Tavasco]

ritchiebee, I so enjoy your turn of phrase and I agree fully with your assessment of SI.

My delusions kick in only when I what if Phil23 is right about 8/1. Suddenly the horse becomes professional, well mannered and mature. The trainer is revealed to actually be an Incan shaman (horse magician) and the owner a third world eccentric entrepreneur possessing uncanny luck.

The group of players enamored with GP #\'s (myself not included) finally abandon this years SoFL 3 y/o hope and the horse runs a new top winning the race at Phil23 odds. Once again proving timing is everything and setting off another discussion of race spacing and air temperature\'s bearing on speed figures.  

If he goes @ 4/1 phooey! But till then still a couple of days remaining of delusions and kool aid flashbacks.

[Ollie]

I always love it when people hold out the \"eternal flame\" that an owner/trainer who have demonstrated consistent bad judgment, and mis-management of a horse throughout, get to prove it all over again. Remember when they allegedly turned down $8 million for the horse, insisting it was a once in a lifetime chance? Any bet on Social Inclusion just becomes \"sucker money.\"
LOl, with the starting gate for the Haskell right in front of the Monmouth grandstand with a huge crowd of fans yelling and making lots of noise, there\'s no chance in hell of SI getting upset by this, like he did before, right? Owner and trainer have everything under control, just like they did before.

[phil23]

Just your standard...45.65 4f work this morning for SI...he he.  This is going to be a fun race.

[miff]

Phil,

Very, especially that Baffert will be sending Bayern off that monster Woody Stevens performance(negative TG territory, 7f notwithstanding) Distance still the big question but think Bayern is alone on the lead if he breaks,with SI and Red chasing.

Interesting Haskell for Untapable who must be doing great, Asmussen way too sharp to go otherwise. While not the most physical specimen, Untapable, at the SPA, is reported to be physically better looking than she was all winter.


Mike