Blueprint for Beating California Chrome

[mjellish]

So we have a colt that won the Derby and will now be odds on in the Preakness.  As I said before the Derby, Chrome has been winning his races with either an outside stalking or front running trip, listens to his jockey well, responds well to hands, and makes a winning move coming out of the turn.  From the 5 hole in the Derby I did not think that it was likely he would get that type of trip.  But he did and he won.  And he made his own trip, which is an important point.  Can\'t take anything away from him.

But... if you go back and watch the last few races he lost, in both cases he was stuck in-between or behind horses. He did not take dirt well, he tossed his head around, fought the jockey, and I swear I can actually see that he maybe even tried to savage or at least really intimidate a colt that ran next to him in one of them.  And even in a two of his recent wins, in the early going, when he was stuck in between horses, he did not seem comfortable until he got outside.  So to me, although he\'s heavily raced, I think that is enough evidence to indicate that he may not like that type of trip.  So if you don\'t think he\'s going to get that type of a trip at odds-on in the Preakness, it\'s no guarantee that he will lose.  But it\'s an excellent reason to make a bet.

When I look at the race, I see he\'s got speed to his outside, and some inside.  Bayern\'s got enough speed to make sure he can\'t get out easy, and Social Inclusion has enough to make sure Chrome can\'t get a front running trip.  So if they both break well and their connections are paying attention, the winner of the Derby should have a bulls eye on his back here.  It\'s not rocket science to go back and watch the replays.  Someone outside of Chrome should be telling the jock to stay glued right next to him on his outside and not to let him get out.  And hopefully one of these colts will cooperate.  If that happens and I am right, Chrome may not only not win, but he may not hit the board.

I could say a few other things about his breeding, coming back on two weeks rest, how he looks galloping now and carries his weight, etc.  But for the sake of keeping this simple let\'s just stick to the above.

I want to see this Colt win a race without getting the perfect trip he wants to get.  He can make his own trip.  But he\'s now drawn inside and has that bulls eye on his back.

No guarantee, but like I said: an excellent reason to make a bet.  Enough to make me skip a trip to the lake and go to the track instead on Saturday.

If he wins again hat\'s off and I will hope to get even in the Belmont.  No savers in the win position here.  He\'s a toss for me on all tickets in the win position in the horizontals, and only a slight use as a saver underneath in the verticals.  I\'m hoping he doesn\'t hit the board.

[rhagood]

Repost from earlier and the one chink in his armor:

Thomas on California Chrome:

California Chrome has the pattern of motion of an older horse. His running style really has not changed at all since his debut last April at Hollywood Park, but it has become much more powerful.

He breaks from the gate, seeks to get into the clear toward the front of the pack, platforms at a high cruising speed, then re-breaks. California Chrome is fairly heavily slanted toward the Individual Herd Dynamic, and he is very strong in this area as long as he is in control of his motion – running in the relative clear.

California Chrome is a horse at the apex of his development. He has learned his game and honed his tactics. He is much farther down the road in the development of his pattern of motion than most three-year-olds at this time of year. ...

California Chrome is not a highly efficient horse when his forward motion is being impeded. If traffic slows him down by 5 lengths early, he won't necessarily get those 5 lengths back later. In the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Golden State Juvenile, where he finished sixth, California Chrome was unable to move horses with presence. He didn't have the "part the seas" move that we have seen from some other Derby winners (Animal Kingdom, for example). He was just another frustrated driver caught in traffic. ...

The blinkers haven't helped him learn how to deal with traffic, but they have sharpened his forward drive. They have made him better at getting the trip he wants – near the front in the clear – and imposing his will on a race. ...

California Chrome had an air of assurance in the post parade for the Santa Anita Derby. He walked proudly, independent of his pony. Interaction with the pony serves as stress relief. A lot of horses suck right up next to the pony, sometimes as an act of agitation, other times as a safety blanket. California Chrome wasn't feeling any stress that day. He likes to run, and as a high-level horse, he is not herd dependent. California Chrome enters the Derby an extremely confident horse.

Time in motion up to nine furlongs did not wear California Chrome down. He has the emotional conformation to handle the Derby distance, but the ride could be very important. This is a luxury sports car that needs proper steering.

California Chrome appears to be the dominant Individual Herd Dynamic, on-the-pace horse in this field. If he gets his preferred trip, he is going to be a tough opponent. The amount of energy he expends attaining position and defeating the other speed horses will determine his vulnerability in the late stages.

If he gets held up early, we will find out if he has grown in the group dynamic. He hasn't been put in that scenario since last fall, and he didn't handle it well then

[FrankD.]

The pace scenario many envisioned in the Derby, kickback and traffic issues could and should certainly come to fruition here for Cali Chrome. He has done nothing wrong in 5 straight races and he just could be that much better than the rest of his very mediocre generation.

At 3/5 or so I cannot use him and like many I would be diving in full tilt in the Belmont against him should he get it done once again. While MJ is forgoing a lake trip to make a significant play against him. I will not be around on Saturday at all choosing another non gambling related event. Blasphemous I know, it\'s a triple crown day! Pimlico sees my money 2 days a year and an awesome Black Eyed Susan card will be decimated by rain; how much and what they do with track will have a big impact on Saturday as well

My wagers will be modest and mostly horizontal tossing Chrome and looking for some value I\'m tossing Social Inclusion as well. I know I\'m breaking the Covello rule of never letting the fastest horse in the race beat you in a pick 3 or 4.
At 6/1 or so as a very solid 2nd choice I have to toss him. I feel his connections are clueless entering him in a junk \"stake\" at Gulf on Derby Day, a foot bruise real or fictitious and a string of only 3 and 4 furlong works for a horse that obviously lacked distance conditioning in the Wood makes me say NO here.

Who then:
Kid Cruz does have an upside, nice pattern and a closer down the middle into a lively pace give him a punchers chance and probably a 4th or 5th choice in the horizontals.

Bayern is the one I like the best and could anywhere from a 3rd to 5th choice in the picks; more likely a 3rd with the Baffert factor. He was an admitted short horse in Arkansas and hopefully got some foundation running in quick sand inside in the Derby Trial; Blinkers off, Rosie do well for Baffert and he has worked very well since the trial. IMHO it won\'t take a TG negative to win this race and moving from his February 2 to a 0 for a healthy 3 yr old is not a reach at all.

10/1 maybe will get a win bet, a decent exacta with the Kid and maybe fooling around with some tri\'s tossing the top 2 choices. In pick 4 land I\'ll use those 2 with a heavier play on Bayern. All dependant on at least a good track.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[richiebee]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> But... if you go back and watch the last few races
> he lost, in both cases he was stuck in-between or
> behind horses. He did not take dirt well, he
> tossed his head around, fought the jockey, and I
> swear I can actually see that he maybe even tried
> to savage or at least really intimidate a colt
> that ran next to him in one of them.  And even in
> a two of his recent wins, in the early going, when
> he was stuck in between horses, he did not seem
> comfortable until he got outside.  So to me,
> although he\'s heavily raced, I think that is
> enough evidence to indicate that he may not like
> that type of trip.

MJ to go back and watch the \"the last few races he lost\", one has to go back to
November 1, 2013. Is one supposed to ignore his last five dominant wins and hope
that he all of a sudden regresses and starts acting like a 2YO again? CC seems to
be past his slow 2YO starts, BUT
>
> When I look at the race, I see he\'s got speed to
> his outside, and some inside.  Bayern\'s got enough
> speed to make sure he can\'t get out easy, and
> Social Inclusion has enough to make sure Chrome
> can\'t get a front running trip.  So if they both
> break well and their connections are paying
> attention, the winner of the Derby should have a
> bulls eye on his back here.  It\'s not rocket
> science to go back and watch the replays.  Someone
> outside of Chrome should be telling the jock to
> stay glued right next to him on his outside and
> not to let him get out.  And hopefully one of
> these colts will cooperate.  If that happens and I
> am right, Chrome may not only not win, but he may
> not hit the board.

You are giving these jocks a lot of credit, like they have the capability to
(a)target CC and (b) ride their own horse. Castellano, Rosario and Rosie all have
mounts here, but where are the canny jocks who might be able to ride 2 horses? No
Smith, no Stevens, no Johnny V; three of the top money riders all on the
sidelines.

The Brooklyn Nets had a bullseye on Lebron James in game 5 of their series with
the Heat. How did that work out? To use another sports analogy, I am sure that
opponents tried to physically intimidate Wayne Gretzky only to find that they
were not able to lay a body on the elusive superstar.

I think that as unsavory as he is at 3/5, CC can let all of these speed types get
4 or 5 lengths in front of him and avoid traffic and still be effective. To put
it another way, which trainer of one of the pace horses is going to take his colt
out of his game solely for the purpose of playing bumper cars with CC?

While you create a scenario whereby CC can lose (and it is just one of the
scenarios which can cost CC victory) you do not mention a single one of the
Preakness entrants who can WIN the race.

CC has three graded stakes wins in 2014. His competition has four graded stakes
wins among them lifetime, and that counts hopeless longshot Ria Antonia\'s put up
in the 2013 BC Juvie Fillies.
>
> I could say a few other things about his breeding,
> coming back on two weeks rest, how he looks
> galloping now and carries his weight, etc.  But
> for the sake of keeping this simple let\'s just
> stick to the above.

I think the breeding at this point is not a factor; he is apparently bred well
enough to have won the SA Derby and the Ky Derby.
>
> I want to see this Colt win a race without getting
> the perfect trip he wants to get.  He can make his
> own trip.  But he\'s now drawn inside and has that
> bulls eye on his back.

We\'ve all read the articles: It takes a super horse to win off two week spacing,
and being drawn inside in a field of 10 is different than being drawn inside in a
field of 19.
 
So that\'s my take. CC relaxes out of the gate and keeps those horses that might
target him in his sight, three or four lengths in front of him. Will I have a bet
on him at 3/5? Highly unlikely.

A story of two monsters this weekend: Godzilla opens in NY, CC closes in
Baltimore.

Other races, other horses note: Charge Now, Bill Mott\'s promising half to Super
Saver, drew post 11 in the Sir Barton.

[mjellish]

I get it Richie.  But let me ask you this.  Watch Chrome\'s last two wins in the KY Derby and SA Derby.  Notice how he runs early on, when in between horses, tossing his head, climbing.  Does he look comfortable to you?

To me he doesn\'t look comfortable until he gets out in the clear.  And those were recent races.  I\'m not asking him to revert to his two year old form.  I\'m asking him to show me he can win another way.

But speaking of his two year old form, watch the replay of the Del Mar Futurity.  Watch Chrome in deep stretch when he tries to rally in between horses.  Doesn\'t it look like he actually tries to bite the horse to his inside?  When is the last time you saw that in a Grade I stake, even for a two-year old?  That\'s a very aggressive, innate behavior that doesn\'t necessarily go away.

So I am taking the stance that this Chrome will not run his race if he doesn\'t get his trip.  I don\'t think he will run if he gets pinned inside or in- between horses, and I don\'t think he will run well if he has to eat any dirt.  I could be wrong.  And he has tactical speed to make his own trip. But that\'s the risk I am taking.  It\'s a game of percentages.  At 3/5 or 1/2 I\'m going to take a shot here and I will be rewarded if I am right.

Also, I\'m not the type that feels obligated to try beat a colt in the Triple Crown simply because he\'s a heavy favorite.  I passed the race last year.  I passed in 2008.  I passed in 2006.  Speaking of 2006, do you see any similarities between Bernardini and Social Inclusion this year?  

I remember that race in 2006 as if it was yesterday.  Not to bring up what may be a sore subject, but Barbaro looked unbeatable to me.  30 min to post my father still couldn\'t believe I was passing the race and called me a name I won\'t repeat.  He told me to give him a bet.  I told him he was wasting his money and said if he had to be a degenerate and play the race to put in a  trifecta 6,7,8/ 6,7,8 / All and hope for the best.  He put that bet in.  Then Barbaro breaks through the gate right before the race...   Now that\'s usually a really, really bad sign.  So I said \"It looks like Barbaro may go off form.\"  I jump up and run to the window to try to get something down figuring I will have time.  But they wheeled him around and reloaded so quickly that I missed the race.  When what happened, happened, I looked at my dad and told him he was going to win and that was before the field was even out of the first turn.  That\'s no B.S. and I\'m not embellishing in anyway.  My father made a very nice five figure score, albeit a very bitter sweet one, and thanked me by saying \"Nice bet boy.\" and flipping me a $100 tip.

In any case, I\'m going to try to beat Chrome here.

[TGJB]

MJ-- given the opinion you already had, there\'s not telling how much you would have made on that Preakness if you had been coming here back then. That was the first time I ever booked a horse on Betfair. We might have done the race for ROTW, might still be there. (And it was all based on Kool-Aid, by the way, bounce theory and spacing).

I was just lukewarm for Bernadini off the big top, which made it only a small profit for me. As it turned out that was the start of a run where that group got some of the best figures ever run, by several horses (Henny Hughes, Discreet cat, Invasor, the mare that won the 7f GI at Saratoga closing weekend running a neg 6, and Bernardini). If it had started earlier I might have known he wouldn\'t bounce.

[TGJB]

By the way, there was no bigger Kidd fan than me as a player, but the Nets got completely outcoached. It took him 5 games to have the right guy cover James, their spacing was a mess (see? Spacing matters), resulting in tons of strips and blocks by guys OFF the ball, and they had no clue down the stretch in any game-- completely disorganized. With 5 seconds left, how the hell do you end up inbounding to a guy 3 feet from the sideline, facing it, with his back to the basket, 30 feet away?

[richiebee]

JB:

Poor foul shooting, poor rebounding, inconsistent 3 point shooting, etc. I thought
Kidd did a good job of utilizing his bench. \"You are what your record says you
are\" and the Nets were very good (in the regular season) from January 1 on. Joe
Johnson was nearly unstoppable late in the series, which was balanced out by the
fact that Deron Williams was MIA.

Early in the season, when both Knicks and Nyets were tanking, people were saying
that the best thing for both teams would be if Kidd quit as coach of the Nets and
re-signed as a player with the Knicks.

[johnnym]

Is their any chance Chrome is not the same horse at 3 as he was at 2??
I do not understand winning a race another way. He won the Derby because he put himself in a spot to win the Derby. Did Z have to win a race another way?
I watched his races as a 2 year old, it seems to me he was more frustrated with the jock than anything.
Ever since Espinoza got on his back he has been a different horse..

Good Luck