Let me be the first to post it, and with a short reasoning

[shanahan]

There was a great post here last year before the Derby on the # of horses who had regressed by more than one point in the race prior to the Derby that HAD been in the money.  There were 4, none winners.

I also had looked back at the sire indexes and from these two data sets - based on the fact of what it appears needs to be run to win (without disclosing any data that may still be purchased:

Derby ex and tri box: Vicar, General, Medal, Wicked.  Intense Holiday and Hopper bottom only.