Pre-Draw Derby Thoughts

[ajkreider]

In case any one cares, here goes:

Key Horse - California Chrome

I\'m not really interested in win bets on the Derby, as the payoffs for the exotics are too enticing.  The play is find the most likely winner, and fill in underneath. That means CC.  While others are a bit faster by the numbers, we\'ve not seen CC fully extended.  An all out effort may have resulted in four straight negative figures, and then we\'d be using words like \"Smarty\". He\'s put up those numbers at two tracks on two surfaces, which the others can\'t say.  A deserving favorite, and I\'ll go down with him.  Will play him on top.

Key Toss - Wicked Strong

Despite the good report from Covello, I\'m tossing the second choice.  Too big a forward move from a horse that\'s been in constant training since September, he has to react.  Not sure he has the tactical speed to replicate his early Wood positioning. Will probably be overbet by the public for sentimental reasons.  Too great a risk at shortish odds.

Easy Tosses - We Miss Artie/Harry\'s Holiday

Obviously Artie is not a dirt horse.  Worked poorly.  Same for Harry.  Two dirt efforts got double digit figs. Shocks happen in this race, but they can\'t be bet.

Almost As Easy Tosses - Medal Count/Dance With Fate

A theme here. The former did absolutely nothing on dirt against class horses at two tracks. Did break his maiden on dirt at Ellis.  The 2nd there just broke his maiden in the 11th try.  DWF jumped up big on quirky Keeneland surface, but when the trainer says AFTER the win that he thinks his horse doesn\'t have the build for dirt, who am I to argue.  

A Bridge Too Far Tosses - Wildcat Red/General ARod/Vinceremos/Tapiture/Chitu

These look distance limited to me.  Wildcat had exactly the pace setup that would carry his speed that bit forward in the Florida Derby.  Still not enough.  ARod looks to have been beaten up a bit in his duels with Red.  Very poor looking workouts for both.  Vince couldn\'t pass a talent poor horse in Ring Weekend at 1 1/16th.  An extra 3 steenths won\'t help that any.  Tapiture looks to have succumbed to the curse of the Tapits.  Exposed in the Arky Derby. Chitu worries me a bit, but the only horse of substance he\'s beaten is Midnight Hawk.  Looked dead at the end in New Mexico, and was chased down by Candy Boy at SA.

Wide Draw Tosses - Candy Boy/Ride on Curlin/Commanding Curve/Uncle Sigh

These first three will be running when the anchors start coming out.  To make it count they will have to be in position.  Candy likes to stay in touch, so a wide run around the turn will do him in.  Borel would take ROC to the fence, but this horse isn\'t a deep closer.   Dropping to the back will leave both he and Curve with too much to do.  They won\'t be making up 10 lengths on a Samraat, even with the extra 1/8th.  Uncle has the speed to hit the board, but his last shows he\'s not fast enough to make up for a less than ideal trip.

Don\'t Want to Play But Have To - Danza/Hoppertunity/Intense Holiday

Danza could be any kind.  Hard to be a believer after this one dirt explosion.  But he did put in a nice effort in August, and big move forward may be development for a lightly raced horse off a layoff.  Everyone loves Hopper and looks good over strip, but take out his one wet fast figure, and he\'s no faster than Vince.  Any horse that can\'t run straight is cause for concern.  But IH replicating the effort two back makes him a candidate for the show.  Looks like a stayer.

Must Play - Samraat/Vicar\'s In Trouble

All these two do is run fast, every time.  I worry a bit if Vicar draws poorly, but his sire\'s route runners ITM at a 50% clip.  Samraat may get passed by CC in the stretch, but he will make him and anyone else earn it.  Reminds me of Shackleford.

So, the bets will be CC/these last five, plus those horses that draw well from the Wide Draw group for the tri and super.

All this is subject to revision by . . . . tomorrow.

[Tavasco]

Thanks for your thoughts. A little surprised but overall makes a lot of sense to me.

I hadn\'t realized you were a True Believer (CC). Since you are, getting vertical price multipliers seems a good plan for a memorable day!

I guessed wrong on your opinion of Vicar\'s In Charge. Then it dawned on me that a compact will travel further on a tankful than a full size ride. My initial view was prejudiced, I discounted him because of size.

I had SamRaat in Jimbo\'s column should have been yours. Another one illogically knocked. If I recall had WS not freaked the New York Raat would be a Grade One winner today. How quick they forget.

Another concern on WS. If he acts up before the race as evidenced in the post parade. It may be too late to cancel bets because the totalizator system has failed on a couple of betting portals during the last five minutes each of the last two years.

I understand this is Pre-Draw and subject to refinement! Nice.