Thoro-Patterns and the Derby

[reboundman]

One of the features I love about Thorograph is the thoro-patterns. If you look back at the past 5 Derbys, it alone has been a great indicator of who is likely to run well (run a new top or pair up), as well as a great tool to eliminate fast/false favorites who are likely to run an off or x race.

2013
-Orb - 38% to pair
-Golden Soul - 38% to run a top (the highest # in the field, tied with Mylute, who finished 5th)
-Knocked Verrazano, 37%/38% to run off/x
-Knocked Itsmyluckyday, 30%/32% to run off/x
-Knocked Goldencents, 29%/31% to run off/x

2012
-I\'ll Have Another - 39% to pair
-Bodemeister was 37%/23% to run off/x, but he was the fastest in the field, so he still finished 2nd
-Knocked Gemologist - 30%/32% to run off/x

2011
-Animal Kingdom - 28%/32% to run a top/pair
-Nehro - 38% to run a top
-Mucho Macho Man - 25%/31% to run a top/pair
-Shackleford - 43% to pair
-Knocked Pants on Fire - 38% to run off
-Knocked Midnight Interlude - 39% to run x

2010
-Super Saver - 30%/39% to run top/pair
-Ice Box - 36% to pair
-Make Music for Me - 38% to run a new top
-Knocked Lookin at Lucky - 36%/29% to run off/x
-Knocked Devil May Care - 47% to run x
-Knocked Sidney\'s Candy - 40% to run x

2009
-Mine that Bird - 31% to run a new top
-Pioneer of the Nile - 36% to run a new top
-It knocked Papa Clem and Chocolate Candy a bit, but they were both among the fastest in the field, and rounded out the super
-Knocked General Quarters - 40% to run x
-Knocked Dunkirk - 34% to run x
-Knocked Friesan Fire - 37% to run x

With all that being said, this year is a total head scratcher, as the majority of the field, based on the early sheets, is poised to run a new top or at least pair. Plus, the field is more bunched in terms of comparable figures in recent memory. So, what do we make of this year\'s patterns?