Like I said, Danza = Ice Box....lol

[louisvilleguy1111]

Not saying I like Danza in the Derby at all but what I am saying is you stated that Danza can\'t get 1 1/4, well lets all I have heard over the years before the Derby is the \"experts were saying\"...

Boundary as a sire, ?? 1 1/4 ?? we just don\'t know.
Exlusive Quality, no chance at a 1 1/4 nothing but a sprinter on the turf
Distorted Humor with a Slewacide mare NO way this horse can go 1 1/4
Our Emblem can\'t throw a KY Derby winner

I have heard it over and over again... Look all I know is if the sire of the horse in the starting gate has Raise A Native on the top side do not discount him, period. But for you to to say Danza can\'t go 1 1/4 and you even think about saying Cario Prince can is simply silly. That horse can\'t go 1 1/4 in 2:04 and change if his life depended on it!!
That was the greatest sell job ever! Those owners should be in jail next to Bernie Madoff! Just proves some people will pay anything to try and win the Greatest Race in the world.

Every horse in the race can get the 1 1/4 just not all them are going to be able to do it without a oxygen mask needed at the 1/8 pole heading for home... I am saying after seeing that performance and the time of the race with his gallop out Danza looks like he can get the 1 1/4 with no problem. If he was to win the KY Derby I would think he will pay $35-50 to win. All I am saying is you can throw him out for allot of reasons but the distance is not one them.

Good luck!! Man I love Derby time!

[covelj70]

couldn\'t agree with you more that Derby time is phenomenal

I know some old school horse players understandably lament the fact that the game doesn\'t get this much attention year round as it once did (i.e. Native Dancer being the first horse to be famous on TV, etc) and there are always the inevitable \"it\'s only one race\" wise guys but the fact of the matter is that other than the NFL, most sports aren\'t attracting as much attention today as they did 20 or 30 years ago

there are so many more options for entertainment that everyone\'s time gets diluted

a bunch of hockey teams have gone bankrupt because fans lost interest after the strikes, baseball stadiums aren\'t as filled as they used to be and TV ratings for almost all sporting events are way down (even the yanks/YES)

Let\'s just embrace how great this time of year is and enjoy all the action and attention while we have it and not worry about how this used to be the case year round!

[toppled]

I was replying to what Miff had said. Personally I\'ve never really examined his physical stature and was going under the assumption he was right.  I hope he replies to your question so we can know what he meant.

[TreadHead]

Again, for the third (fourth?) time.....

Sinister Minister is an example of one of the 2 possibilities for horses that are visually impressive in prep wins.  It\'s an extremely simple concept, I\'m dividing visually impressive prep winners into 2 buckets.  Bucket A are your Barbaros and Big Browns, Bucket B are your Goldencents and Sinister Ministers.

Once again, as with the PDub discussion, anyone saying they know for certain which of these 2 buckets CC fits into is not being honest with themselves.  I\'m openly saying (and have been saying) I\'m not sure, which means I\'m not directly equating him to Sinister Minister (yet).  

My money will likely be on a guess that he falls into the latter bucket, but I\'m not stating that it is a certainty that will happen, just as all his fanboys should be realistic about the fact that it is far from certain he will fit into the first category.  I consider it to be an educated guess on many different factors already discussed, but it is in fact a guess.

I have never once stated, or even remotely implied, that all horses that do X end up always doing Y in either one of these discussions, and am getting tired of defending completely wrong interpretations of words ppl want to keep putting in my mouth that I never said.  If you want to set up your own straw men and argue with yourself about it, have at it, but no need to associate me with it.

Lost in all this discussion was the fact that VIT was a visually impressive winner in his last prep as well, but for some reason everyone wants to discount the competition he ran against due to the IH cross-fire issue and the fact that he hasn\'t won 3 in a row like CC has (though if he had been facing the competition CC had, he would be on 3 straight visually impressive wins as well).

[jerry]

What do you think about Chitu\'s distance pedigree?

[covelj70]

I LOVE his pedigree in general but it certainly doesn\'t scream 1 1/4 with Henny up top and Zilzal as the second dam sire

I\'m not sure it matters though too much as Baffert was pretty negative (very publicly) on his last breeze and Baffert showed last year that he will do the right thing by a horse by not running Gov Charlie so I doubt the horse will wind up in the gate.

[touchgold]

Isnt beholder by henny hughes? She seemed to have little problem getting the 1 1/8

[jerry]

Yes, but Tricky Creek vs. A.P. Indy for the damsire.

[touchgold]

Ill take AP INDY

[covelj70]

there are others that have a different view but

a) beholder is very unique, most henny hughes are more distance limited

b) there\'s a big difference in my mind between 1 1/4 and 1 1/8

again, don\'t let me talk you off but I would need to have this one running much better figures than the group to bet him given questionable pedigree

[jimbo66]

Jim

I know I posted a bit on this before and TGJB responded that u two have discussed this as well.  But I am just not seeing the evidence out there with regards to pedigree making a difference in the derby and specifically the 1 1/8 vs 1 1/4.   Many winners had what people considered suspect pedigrees.  But with the exception of the Giacomo and Mine the bird years, fast horses with solid preps at 1 1/8 win. Horses aren\'t running new tops at 1 1/4 as u have often pointed out.  That extra 1/8th of a mile hasn\'t really seemed to be a big difference.

On the other hand I would argue that the Belmont, at the unique and aberrationally long distance for U.S. dirt horses, has resulted in more examples of horses with distance pedigrees winning.  

Narrowing it down to Hoopertunity and wicked strong off pedigree seems like a HUGE leap.  But good luck.  

Wicked strong is on my list as well.  But still feel like Hoopertunity is a Belmont not derby horse.

Jim

[touchgold]

I totally agree on the extra 1/4....but, not too many G1 going 1 1/4 on dirt for females that I know of. And I have no idea of chitu last number. I realize he is a bit slower, but I would think his line will be going forward and maybe 1-2 points slower than most...but a lot of them Ill guess went back in their last races. And with his tactical speed he may get a trip.Since baffert and garcia have parted ways, not sure who will have the mount. And again, my opinion is based on a huge price.

[TGJB]

You know, I\'m curious about that last, which you and I have talked about.

Putting aside the question of who wins, have you looked to see whether there\'s correlation between how they ran relative to their previous top in the Derby and \"1 1/4 pedigree\"?

I agree with the earlier poster who pointed out Funny Cide, SJ and another one who would have been considered distance challenged going in. A lot of pedigrees look better after the fact (see: Dosage, changed).

[miff]

Pizza,

There are several horses especially Vicar In Trouble and Cairo Prince who are not \"physical\" Vicar is a shrimp and I\'m not a fan of smaller horses in the Derby, maybe the most physical race run in the USA.

CP is more robust than Vicar but is average at best physically((Smarty Jones was average but all engine)I\'m giving CP a mulligan off the poor FD on the basis of his excellent usual quick burst and tactical speed.Also have to wonder why KM babied him between his Florida starts.

CC is ok but his engine size(ass end is not grand)

Ability trumps all but size does matter,go to a sale and watch most of the smaller horses get passed on by the big buyers.

Good luck
Mike

P.S. A request was made several years ago to list the height and weight of the TC contenders....never acknowledged!