I think we have ourselves a Derby

[covelj70]

Two impressive winners yesterday

Assuming JB sees the races the same way, both CC and WS ran very fast yesterday (CC 107 beyer, WS 104)

Lets hope they both come into the race the right way.

I think whoever comes out of the Ark Derby will be a real horse as well as I like several of those horses and even though I didn\'t think much of Constitutions race and his numbers weren\'t great, I am respectful of those on the board that liked the race and so I will put him into the real contender category.

Then there are a few that are fast on TG that have distance or other questions like Arod and Samaarat that I don\'t like too much but can\'t completely dismissed.

CC will be a deserving favorite and I agree with everyone who is saying that horse and the connections are a great sorry for many reasons and so I would like to see them win but this is shaping up as a nice Derby and I think that\'s awesome

Side note, thanks to everyone for all of the good thoughts about TR yesterday.  Lexcano said she hated the track all the way around. He gave her a great ride and she was in perfect position but she couldn\'t get hold of the plastic.  Plenty of big turf races for her this summer so lots to look forward to.

Finally, I have to say, Keenland is far and away the best racetrack for a horseperson in terms of how the track treats owners. I absolutely love the place. My family and I had an incredible day down there.

[ajkreider]

Gotta think Wicked Strong\'s performance flatters Constitution at least a little.  That one handled him fairly easily, albeit on perhaps a speed favoring track.  Of the two, would think Constitution has the best shot at a forward move.

[covelj70]

Very good points but I would add that pedigree wise, WS much better bred for Derby distance

Tapit is a brilliant sire but he didn\'t get derby distance and none of his offspring have yet either

WS pedigree as good as you will see to get 1 1/4.

[jimbo66]

Jim

Wouldn\'t argue wicked strong having a top pedigree.  But think maybe u are being a bit hard on the tapit horses.  Yes, he ran poorly in the derby, but not sure it was the distance.  That was the soupy swamp derby where really only smarty and lion heart ran.  

Personally right now I believe California chrome to be significantly better than the rest of these horses.  But if we get our usual wicked pace and this becomes a race for a horse from far back, wicked strong would have to be one of the \"b\'s\" on my tickets.  He leveled off nicely late yesterday.  And would seem to want every part of the 1 1/4.

Pedigree a funny thing.  Gonna hear lots about California chrome\'s weak distance pedigree over the next 4 weeks.  2 months ago I would have agreed.  But there gets to be a point where results outweigh pedigree.  That horse had his ears pricked and was rolling through the stretch until the jockey wisely shut him down. There is no way I will believe that an extra 1/8th of a mile will be a problem.   New surface and tracking s potentially super fast pace.  Sure.  But not the pedigree.  

As for Hoopertunity. Pencil him in for. Mid pack finish in the derby followed by a Belmont appearance.  Where perhaps his grinding style and seeming trouble running the tighter turns will be make him a visble Belmont horse.

Good luck

Jim

[toppled]

I\'m curious what JB\'s take will be on the big leap forward that WS took yesterday.  Going into the race, his numbers were like Commissioner\'s are right now (I haven\'t seen his Sunland #).  At this point I wouldn\'t think Commissioner can compete with the Derby horses, but wouldn\'t a big forward move by Commissioner put him in the same place as Wicked Strong?  So is Wicked Strong a different horse, like California Chrome who was running non-competitive (for a Derby winner) numbers then suddenly woke up with a 1 in December and has now run 4 big numbers in a row, or is the Wood a 1 race aberration ?

[drbillym]

Social Inclusion was regarded as a freak going into the Wood, and see what happened. So now is CC being given the same status, only to falter in his next race?

[BitPlayer]

Jimbo -

\"Personally right now I believe California chrome to be significantly better than the rest of these horses.\"

I\'m not seeing that in the TG figs.  Is this the opening salvo in the annual debate about whether TG has California horses too slow?

[jimbo66]

Not a good comparison.

Chrome has raced quite a few times, winning and crushing graded stakes horses.  Social inclusion had a 6 furlong sprint win and an allowance win in a paceless 5 horse field.

[jimbo66]

I have beaten that dead horse.

We all have eyes.  I suggest we use them and make our own judgments and not rely solely on figures to make your judgments

Which races have u seen this year equivalent to California chrome\'s last two?  

Social inclusions win is it for me.

[covelj70]

It\'s so funny you mention Commissioner as JB and I have been having a running debate on him all winter.


I love the horse and think he is eligible to move forward substantially next weekend

I don\'t put much stock in bounce stuff for spring 3 year olds.

Whenever a spring 3 year old moves forward everyone screams \"bounce bounce bounce\" and many sheet people throw those horses out for their next race

I would highlight the derby runs of ice box and big brown as good examples where the sheet said bounce and the horse didn\'t bounce at all

My advice for whatever its worth is to use the TGs to make sure the horse you like is fast enough to win the derby bc I believe TG is the most accuracte speed figure available but the other stuff around patterns and bounces and too much development from 2 to 3, etc I find mostly useless for spring 3 year olds

For older grass horses, patterns and bounces, etc are very useful but not for young horses who may just finally be getting to do what they want to do (ie run longer) or just may be a bit of a later developer or any one of ten other reasons

[pizzalove]

The inconsistency of the 3 year olds is what makes the derby so exciting.  TG\'s are very valuable.  Im still mad I didn\'t use them then they nailed the baffert lucas exacta with war emblem (is that right?) and proud citizen.  There is a slew of info out there but not much as valuable as TGs or monitoring this board.

[big18741]

Without looking it up I\'m almost certain Proud Citizen ran a new top in the Derby but agree the #\'s here are a good starting point to figuring out a difficult race.