"He was fascinated by irrationality and the opportunities it created...

[derby1592]

...for anyone who resisted it.\"

\"...the tendency of everyone...to generalize wildly from his own experience...the tendency to be overly influenced by most recent performance...the bias toward what people saw with their own eyes, or thought they had seen...the human mind played tricks on itself when it relied exclusively on what is saw, and every trick played was a financial opportunity for someone who saw through the illusion to the reality...\"

No, these are not quotes from a book about horse racing or handicapping - but they could be. They actually come from the book \"Moneyball\" by Michael Lewis. But don\'t be fooled, the very same novel principles applied to successfully managing a professional baseball team could just as easily be applied to managing a racing stable or even to handicapping races.

I highly recommend the book. It is both insightful and entertaining.

Chris

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

If you\'re saying a 10 length win may not be as dominant as a 1 length win or even a two length loss, thats what this site is all about. If you\'re saying a horse is not always as good or bad as its last race, thats what this site is about. Odds on the toteboard help one decide if the last is as good as it looks, in conjunction with the product here of course. But theres another side to that coin as well and that is that sometimes a 10 length win is dominant and sometimes a horse is as good or bad as its last race.

Now, if your saying that Shaniko\'s last race where he lost by 5 lengths is one of mistaken impression or financial opportunity when he runs in the Louisana Derby, thats possible. But the riches he pays out wont be because he was quicker in the last eighth than he appeared. It will be because the number he ran is competitive with the new crowd and likely because he became a better horse on the riches day.

What a great weekend coming up. The Big Cap, the Louisana Derby and the San Rafael.
The L.Derby looks to be a bang up betting race, all kinds of good improving horses. The Big Cap is interesting. At first glance Mandella is holding some nice cards. Once again, you\'d think Pleasantly should be weighted a little more heavily. He appears to only be giving significant weight to Toccet, Royal Place and Saint Buddy, though I\'m not considering with figs yet. Saint Buddy caught my eye, his Dam\'s Dam is a full to Mr. Prospector, but she never produced anything of note. Saint Buddy got in all kinds of trouble last but every time he\'s gone a semblance of distance he\'s faded and his Dam side breeding looks weak. I like the weight, but I\'m highly suspect of him being able to benefit from it.

I\'ve been rewatching the stakes on bdhsheets site. The more I watch the Southwest the more I\'m comfortable with Smarty\'s race. The fractions were fast and at the end he did not want to let the El Prado horse by. I don\'t think the competition was much, but the effort appears a bit better than it at first looked.

CtC



Post Edited (03-04-04 06:11)

[Michael D.]

speaking of shaniko, looks like cordero and velazquez are not too high on the horse, as JR has dumped shaniko for pollard\'s vision in the la derby (according to the drf). or, it might be that pletcher is so high on value plus, that he wanted to get another rider accustomed to shaniko as value plus rolls on to the derby. i question vp\'s ability to get ten furlongs against top quality horses. either way, my 50-1 on shaniko may not be the value i thought it was.

[derby1592]

...just picked up the mount on Shaniko.

If he is any good, then that 50/1 we got in the Future book might still be decent value.

Chris

[Michael D.]

i would like to hear the story behind this jock change. i have doubts about both birdstone and RTF (as top derby threats), maybe bailey and his agent felt the same way, and picked out shaniko. doesn\'t really matter, if shaniko wins, we get JR or Bailey the rest of the way. no more complaining about 50-1 (unless he gets beat good on sunday).