Ahtoug in Al Quoz - tough pattern read

[phil23]

Much improved this year in Meydan. Last was 2pt new top putting him within range. So on the plus side: turf horses like to pair up, Thoropattern looks fantastic - 62% to at least pair, no travel as already been there all carnival.  On the negative (does he bounce) side: new 2pt top and already bounced at carnival after running his top 1st out, 6 years old, this will be his 5th race in very short period of time, short rest.

Leaning toward price making up for the negatives but interested in anyone else\'s thoughts.

[TGAB]

You\'re right this is his best campaign but as good as he\'s been this year the negatives remain. He\'s bounced or laid off after every top since age 4 excepting his last a pair-up. Now slight new tops are often a sign of burgeoning form but that\'s more apt the younger the horse. Thoro-Pattern gives him a 24% chance to run a new top and that might get it done at 12-1 or so, the odds I see. But there are lot of horses within a point so that\'s not as juicy an overlay as one might think initially, especially since a pair-up is much more likely. Favored De Kock runner Shea Shea beat this guy last time and he\'s got 2 faster, 1 even and 4 more efforts within a point of Ahtoug\'s best. Shea Shea is much more likely to run his number than Ahtoug is to run his. Shea Shea\'s Thoro-Pattern is not pertinent due to the layoff.

Berlindo Di Tiger is more intriguing to me. He\'s got one figure that gives him a big chance to win. It came 3rd out last year, the same spot he\'s in here and his last at GP is pointing back to it. Now obviously the ship, new track, etc. is a big unknown but I feel I\'m getting a better shot for my money at 30-1 or so. And you could protect under the favorite and do okay.      

Lastly for now, I don\'t want to talk you off a 12-1 shot. That\'s a sufficient price.

[phil23]

Alan, thanks very much for the reply. Maybe I was stretching a bit with him. Certainly BdT at even higher odds is better value. There\'s a couple more big ones that appear value on the card too. As always, the data is great. Cheers.

[TreadHead]

Man, almost got up for you Phil, hope you had exotics here.

Another year, another list of epic failures for US-based horses running off Lasix.  These horses aren\'t just getting beat, they are finishing near the back of every pack.  Unless there is something in the breeding that suggests they will be OK (like Animal Kingdom\'s German mare), it is foolish to expect the same results for these US-based horses.

Twilight Eclipse was 5-1 in the US pool, 40-1 in the UK and 70-1 in France.  At least some ppl are paying attention.