I don't think the derby winner has had his final prep yet

[TGJB]

Yeah, I saw the \"house horse\" thing. Pretty sure they attached the house to the horse, not that the horse came out of the house.

Walden called me the morning of the race, I told him if he moved forward some he had a shot. After the race I texted him asking how much they paid Velasquez (to make that insane move on the first turn, and open up the rail later).

To be clear, it was a joke. But that ride was the difference between the WinStar horse winning and a Derby spot, and third or fourth.

[louisvilleguy1111]

Hey covelj70,

I am not a fan of CA Chrome for a couple reasons yes one is the distance but the other is I don\'t care for the horses he has been in against for the most part. While he has faced Midnight Hawk who yes Candy Boy has as well but look at all those CA Bred races. If he wins the the Ky Derby then I just lose lol no big deal. Won\'t be the first time lol. Heck I don\'t think he will even win the SA Derby much less the one in May! No NY breds and CA breds for me on the first Saturday in May and yes it\'s true no Funny Cide was on any my tickets the year he won. Without looking at the pp\'s and know who is running Candy Boy is the horse to beat this weekend in my opinion. Good luck and take care.

[SoCalMan2]

What do people think about Tonalist?  As I understand it, he had a very bad trip and all against him when he ran second to the horse that just came back to win the Florida Derby.  If that is true, then the horse that beat him coming back to win a Grade I (their race was just a first level allowance race) has to flatter him.  I am just thinking he is so lightly raced and not really established any sort of level yet. I guess we will see.  If he runs well enough in the Wood to get into the Derby, I have to think he is going to have a great pattern going into the Derby.

[pizzalove]

The cal bred thing does not bother me at all.  this is a decent horse.  What do you all think about Coastline?

[ajkreider]

Coastline looks like a horse that hasn\'t improved this year.  The loss to Tanzanite Cat looks really bad now.  Lost by 10 in his last dirt try.  Came home in 40 seconds on the plastic = pass.

[kmart4503]

Any thoughts on Toast of NY?  Not sure what figure he ran, but I\'m interested.


Kmart

[drbillym]

tonalist out of Wood due to possible lung infection

[covelj70]

Bred for turf and that ship is brutal so close to derby. I will pass on any horse that has shipped all over the world so close to the race.

[touchgold]

pretty sure all the winners in dubai have made little noise in kentucky

[bellsbendboy]

As good as you are at \'capping this race Jim I will play devils advocate and write that this years KY derby winner did run this past w/end.

While neither winner has much shot ( the Bayou bred in New Orleans cannot get ten panels in a Sallee van, and the Pletcher does not have enough foundation) the show horse in Hallandale seems very live.

This years crop is very subpar and I suspect a zero could win the roses.  General a rod has run that integer.  

A son of the solid racehorse Roman Ruler himself a grade one winner who fetched a half a million as a yearling, out of a Darby dan family (4th dam tossed Carocalero a French champion who would run all day without a drink of water) this colt has done little wrong.

Off the pace in Lexington to win clear in his first start double M makes the unusual move and puts the shades on.  Robby cannot keep him off the pace and while a bit wide in hot splits he beats them all aside from the last to first favorite dropping out of the breeders cup.

On to south Florida he runs down \"Red\" to win, then drops a photo to that same rival, before an honest third Saturday.

Does he need to improve, sure.  His zero in the GP derby was a relatively easy trip and he is already \"home\" in south Louisville.  Can he improve, probably.

Maker does his best work in Ky but his comments about this colt are somewhat telling.  To wit according to the drf, January, \"he (General a rod) is a big immature colt with a ton of talent\".    Then in March Mike is quoted \"he is the whole package, a big good looking colt... a professional push button horse\".

Personally, my own assessment is this colt has a problem with lugging in as he did again Saturday.  He also never works in company and I would suggest he needs a rider with softer hands. Rosario will probably bolt for the Winchell homer so the mount is open, perhaps.  Mike has promised \"some adjustments\" so we will see.

Disclaimer  He is my winter book horse.  bbb

[TMW]

Subscribing to the \"I don\'t think the derby winner has had his final prep yet\" maybe a horse named Schoolofhardrocks will enter the picture this weekend. Lots of reasons to throw \"rocks\" at him. First or second and he will be in. I can\'t play favorites this year...

[big18741]

No clue on the Derby winner or if he\'s run his final prep yet.
Only thing I know is the Derby pace will probably be too fast and most of the horses want no parts of a quick paced ten furlongs.

Looking at the top 20 on the points list as of today I like three of them a little bit who might have enough in their bloodlines to handle the trip.

Intense Holiday
Hoppertunity
General A Rod

Intense Holiday should benefit from a faster pace than he\'s seen in the Fairgrounds races.Instead of sitting midpack or closer he can drop way out of it and make one run.

Hoppertunity\'s come a long way in a short time.
Interested to see how he does off the Rebel with the three week turnaround.

General A Rod will look great on paper if he paired his FOY here but he needs to be taken back off the pace some.I like him best of the three with the right ride.
Calvin Borel?

[SoCalMan2]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No clue on the Derby winner or if he\'s run his
> final prep yet.
> Only thing I know is the Derby pace will probably
> be too fast and most of the horses want no parts
> of a quick paced ten furlongs.
>
> Looking at the top 20 on the points list as of
> today I like three of them a little bit who might
> have enough in their bloodlines to handle the
> trip.
>
> Intense Holiday
> Hoppertunity
> General A Rod
>
> Intense Holiday should benefit from a faster pace
> than he\'s seen in the Fairgrounds races.Instead of
> sitting midpack or closer he can drop way out of
> it and make one run.
>
> Hoppertunity\'s come a long way in a short time.
> Interested to see how he does off the Rebel with
> the three week turnaround.
>
> General A Rod will look great on paper if he
> paired his FOY here but he needs to be taken back
> off the pace some.I like him best of the three
> with the right ride.
> Calvin Borel?


Do you view Chitu as a needs the lead type?  I think that Chitu may be able to sit back just off the pace (he usually lets one horse go ahead of him, why not a few more in the Derby), and, although his daddy\'s pedigree seems to be speed oriented, his bottomside looks all distance to me.  Love that his mother\'s only race was victory at 10 panels in May of her 3yo year (albeit, on turf in a weight for age race at Redcar).

[big18741]

I agree on the pedigree-sprint on top and stamina on the bottom.
Chitu might be okay there.He looked fine going nine furlongs.Don\'t know if the extra furlong helps but it might not hurt him.

He could sit farther back if the pace is nuts but unless they change up the rider it seems like they would let that horse do what he does best.Martin Garcia is pretty aggressive and I\'m guessing that horse likes to mix it up.

The other thing is he\'d have to move forward to contend(depending on what #\'s you use)so I like a few others on the list as of now.

[covelj70]

hey there

thanks for the thoughts on ARod

He was my horse for awhile and maybe he should still be

I have him in Vegas at a very big price from back in January so I would love it if he got the job done

that said, I am not as bullish on his prospects after his last two races

he doesn\'t seem to want to pass horses in the stretch

one can make a good argument about his ground loss in the Fla Derby but the other side of the argument is that he had a perfect stalking trip off of moderate fractions and still lost ground in the stretch

I would like to see them take the blinkers off him but trying something new for the first time in the Derby is tough

he breezes without the blinkers and I love how he goes without them

fingers crossed