Rainbow Pick 6

[Mathcapper]

rh - I understand what you\'re saying, but the parlay is just a mathematical construct used to estimate what a multirace payoff should pay. Whether or not somebody actually bets a parlay is irrelevant.

The only way to accurately estimate what a Pick 6 should pay is by multiplying together the true probabilities of each winning horse in the sequence (ie. winner of leg 1 had a 35% chance to win, winner of leg 2 had a 22% chance to win, etc).

You get the same result whether you multiply the probabilities together (the hard way) or you calculate the parlay (the easy way).

Rocky R.

[rhagood]

I do prefer that analogy better.  It is the essence of finding value in any wager, true probability vs rate of return as is often discussed on this board.  The closer a handicapper\'s estimate of the former directly correlates in the long run to the latter no matter the betting vehicle. Horse racing always creates opportunities (inefficiencies) due to the variance of opinions and abilities to estimate \"true\" probability.

[miff]

Directions to the Bowery in NY readily available.Math and true value theorists hover around a nice fire during winter trading methodologies that knocked them broke.

[Bigredgoer]

That\'s what she said...LOL....interesting thoughts here

[Mathcapper]

miff –

As I'm sure you're aware, there are two sides to this coin.

Guys like B.Benter, A.Woods(RIP), et al. have been sitting in their McMansions for years quietly laughing to themselves at comments like this while making regular $500K weekly withdrawals from their accounts.

Those campfires are reserved for those unfortunate souls who've either miscalculated their edge or overbet their bankrolls.

[miff]

Math,

That\'s all \"myth\" until proven up close and personal. Pool liquidity,except big days, cannot be beaten with \"math\" What works in Hongkong monster pools does NOT work here.An ex Aussie colleague who killed them in HK, quit here after a short try with the same software program.

Not speaking of rebate betting whales with other models.

Mike

[Mathcapper]

"A Man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still."

― Ben Franklin