Rotw -- Hudson Handicap

[SoCalMan2]

With all due respect, I have to disagree with the ROTW Analysis this week. To my eye, Palace is significantly better than the rest of this field.  This horse has twice run a minus 0.75 and simply a repeat of that figure easily wins this race.  The ROTW analysis seems to think there is a good reason to think this horse will bounce off its last figure because it bounced off this figure the last time it ran it.  However, I do not see this horse as a bounce candidate.  This horse started mid-three year old year and worked itself down to its first reaction point at minus 0.75 late in the year.  The horse did bounce off that figure, but not so much, and then did require time off.  However, after time off, the horse needed a race and then inexplicably ran on turf twice.  Switching back to dirt, this 4yo returned to its 3yo top. The race of the week suggests that this will induce a bounce.  However, in my experience that pattern (4yo\'s returning to 3yo top) is usually a good sign of success and a sign that the horse is ready to move forward and make a new top.  I would say this horse has as much of a chance of moving forward as it does bouncing.  That first minus 0.75 was run as a 3yo and also run after a lot of improvement spread out over time.  This second minus 0.75 comes 4th race back from a layoff and seems like it would have been earlier but for running on the wrong surface.  If you ignore this horse\'s races on turf and wet, it has a great explosive pattern.  Also, this horse used to have problems often off poorly and bearing out.....however, since coming back, these problems seem to have been cured/solved.  I spotted this horse when he was entered in the Vosburgh and I thought he was competitive there.  In terms of the strange work out pattern, I think it can be explained by originally shooting for the Vosburgh on shorter than optimal rest.  Anyway, if this horse goes off at the ML or longer, I think he is a very solid win bet.

[justwin]

SoCal,
I agree with you. Take away the turf and mud and he is clearly the best in here. Like the pattern on B.Shanny as well but Palace is my play to win. Plenty of rest off last so I\'m not worried about a bounce here.
George