ROTW

Started by TreadHead, September 21, 2013, 07:37:11 AM

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TreadHead

Since the PA racing governance has such a strong history of the utmost integrity in enforcing non-sanctioned race-day medications, it is possible to bet this race with tons of confidence.  (LOOOOOL, try saying that out loud with a straight face, I dare you).

That aside, Moreno broke my heart by not staying up in his last, but if there is such a thing as karma, a bounce is coming here after the ridiculousness Guillot pulled after that race.  Still, with his pedigree for slop I don\'t think he can be tossed entirely, but wont use him in win position.

The weather report looks spotty, they are definitely getting heavy rain, but the timing is uncertain.  I\'m planning for slop for the time being and will adjust if needed.

I\'m going to take a slightly different stance and key Fury Kapcori.  Ever since Santa Anita went to dirt, there have been far fewer examples of a synth to dirt switch after a long line of synth races, so I think ppl forget how powerful an angle this is.  Think back to the muddy Derby year string just a few years back and how many Cali horses were shipping to CD Derby week and performing lights out.  Sweet Lulu is the only recent example I can think of, but I think she somewhat fit this pattern as well.

The horse has everything I\'m looking for, Tiznow breeding for slop, great number power from siblings, excellent 3yr old pattern with 2 smallish tops to start the year. Really the only negative is the total amount of development so far this year, but a move down to zero off the surface angle I see as possible, and at the weight/post that should make him the winner.  Something just off that would get in the money I would think.

Definitely using the entry in win position too and liberally on other tickets.  Hopefully WTC finishes out and doesn\'t destroy exotic prices.  Good luck to all today

Bet Twice

Tread- I agree with the approach - I too like Fury Kapcori.  Needs to improve but seems primed to do so.  I\'m going to box with the entry and the Pletcher horse, who I can see pairing up.  Tough race to go too crazy with as there are a number of horses in here who could win if they don\'t bounce or can get back to their top.

TreadHead

Looks like it is going to stay dry, I still see no reason to not key Fury Kapcori and use the entry heavily, but one adjustment I\'m planning on making is including Java\'s War, where previously I was going to toss him completely.

Tavasco

Speak Logistics must be sitting on big one to be even entered and with 1 min is overlooked by bettors.

TreadHead

Barf!  Lukas gets another big run from WTC, time to give him credit for being a pretty good horse.

Tavasco

bettors right again - did not belong

shanahan

Once again, the figs override the analysis.  No reason it should not have been right there.  Congrats to those who did, I did not.

touchgold

yeah, horses always run what they are supposed to...its easy

shanahan

By golly, you\'ve got it!  Good for you, I love it when the light goes on.  Good luck to you tomorrow as well!